Economic slowdown 'very worrisome', new set of reforms needed: Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan
New Delhi, Aug 19: Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has called slowdown in the economy "very worrisome" and said the government needs to fix the immediate problems in power and non-bank financial sectors and come out with a new set of reforms to energise private sector to invest.
Rajan, who was Governor of the Reserve Bank of India from 2013 to 2016 but was denied a second term, also called for a fresh look at the way GDP in India is calculated as he referred to research by Narendra Modi government's former chief economist Arvind Subramanian about overestimation of growth rate.
"There are a variety of growth projections from the private sector analysts, many of which are perhaps significantly below government projections and I think certainly the slowdown in the economy is something that is very worrisome," Rajan told CNBC TV18.
India's economic growth has slowed to 6.8 per cent in 2018-19 - the slowest pace since 2014-15, and various projections by private experts and the central bank estimate that the GDP growth in the current year will be less than government estimate of 7 per cent.
In ominous signs that the slowdown may be deep, the auto sector is facing its worst crisis in two decades with reports suggesting thousands of job losses in the automobile and ancillary industry, real estate sector has huge unsold inventory, while fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies have reported a decline in volume growth.
"You can hear businesses all around worrying and complaining out loud that they need some kind of stimulus," he said.
Rajan said "a fresh set of reforms" are now needed to boost the economy and growth rate.
"We need a fresh set of reforms informed by view on what we want India to be and I would love for that view to be articulated at the very top (that) here is the kind of economy that we want. One-off programs here and there don't amount to a comprehensive reform agenda for the economy," he said, adding borrowing in international markets is not really a reform but a "tactical action".
"What we really need is an understanding of how we are going to propel this country by the two or three percentage points greater growth that it needs and that needs fixing the immediate problems such as in the power sector, such as in the non-bank financial sector and those need to be done yesterday, not in the next six months, it is very important that those be tackled immediately," he said.
Rajan advocated for a new set of reforms to get the private sector to invest.
"We need a new set of reforms, which energise the private sector to invest. Sops, stimulus of one kind or the other are not going to be that useful in the longer-term especially given the very tight fiscal situation that we have. Instead bold reforms, well thought of, not jumping off the cliff, but really seriously thought out reforms in a variety of areas which energise the Indian people, energise the Indian markets and energise Indian business.
"This is what we need today and I really hope we put our best minds to think about this because absent that my sense is that we are in for not so good times," he said.
The former governor also drew attention to former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian's research that GDP growth was overestimated by 2.5 per cent during 2011-12 and 2016-17.
"I also think that we should pay attention to some of the arguments made by the former chief economist Arvind Subramanian that in fact we may be overestimating growth with some of the new GDP data and I would suggest - I have been saying this for some time - we need fresh look from an independent group of experts at the way we compute GDP and make sure that we are not in a sense having GDP numbers that mislead and cause the wrong kinds of policy actions," he said.
On the ongoing global economic slowdown, Rajan said that in comparison to the 2008 financial crisis, the banks are better levered across the globe.
"History never repeats. So, I think there is more leverage than there was in 2008 but it is not in the same places. Banks are less levered than they were then. On the other hand, some corporate sectors, certainly in the United States are more levered, certainly in China are more levered and of course governments are more levered," he said. "So, leverage was the big factor in 2008, it is different today. Not necessarily better, but different."
Rajan said that he can't predict another big financial crash but if it comes, it will be from different sources.
"The big issue today is not so much the financial sector frenzy, there is some but real (issue) is trade and global investments and the worries are that if we don't pay enough attention, the old global order is going out of the window and there is nothing really to replace it to keep countries from doing things that serve their own interest rather than the global interest. So, it is a different world," he said.
Asked about 2008 meltdown repeating, he said: "Do I predict a big crash coming? I don't know but I do think that it is going to come from different sources and simply fixing the old problems is not going to prevent the new ones".
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Cong says LoPs not invited to Putin banquet, takes swipe at Tharoor for accepting invite
New Delhi (PTI): The Congress on Friday said Leaders of Opposition Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi have not been invited to the banquet for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and took a swipe at its own MP Shashi Tharoor for accepting the invite.
Congress general secretary in-charge communications Jairam Ramesh said, "There has been speculation whether the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha and the Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha have been invited for tonight's official dinner in honour of President Putin. The two LoPs have not been invited."
Congress' media and publicity department head Pawan Khera accused the government of breaking protocols daily and not believing in democratic principles.
"There is no invite to both the LoPs, Mr (Mallikarjun) Kharge and Mr (Rahul) Gandhi. This comes as a surprise but I don't think we should be surprised. This government is known to be breaching all protocols. What else to say, ask the government," he told PTI Videos on the sidelines of an event.
Asked about party MP Tharoor getting invited to the banquet and accepting the invitation, Khera said, "Ask Mr. Tharoor. All of us who are in the party, if our leaders don't get invited and we get invited, we need to question our own conscience and listen to our conscience. Politics has been played in inviting or not inviting people, which in itself is questionable and those who accept such an invite is also questionable," Khera said.
"We would have listened to our voice of conscience," he added.
Earlier, Tharoor said there was a time when the chairman of the external affairs committee was routinely invited but that practice seems to have stopped from some years.
"It has been resumed ...I have been invited, yes. I will definitely go," the chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs said.
On the LoPs reportedly not getting an invite, Tharoor said, "I don't know on what basis invitations were sent. I think the custom that usually used to be followed was for a wide representation. Certainly, I remember in the olden days, they used to invite not only the LoPs, (but) various other cross section of representatives of different parties. It conveys a good impression."
"I dont know the basis (of invitation), this is all done by the government, by the protocol by the Rashtrapati Bhawan, what do I know. All I can say I have honoured to have been invited. Of course I will go," Tharoor told reporters in the Parliament House complex.
Gandhi on Thursday had alleged that the government tells visiting foreign dignitaries not to meet the Leader of the Opposition due to its "insecurity".
His remarks had come hours ahead of Putin's two-day visit to India.
Gandhi had said it is a tradition that visiting foreign dignitaries meet the LoP but Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Ministry of External Affairs were not following this norm.
"Normally the tradition is that those who come from abroad have a meeting with the LoP. This used to happen during (Atal Bihari) Vajpayee ji's time, Manmohan Singh ji's time, it has been a tradition but what happens these days is that when foreign dignitaries come and when I go abroad, the government suggests to them to not meet the LoP," Gandhi had told reporters in Parliament House complex.
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