Fitch slashes India's FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7% on slowing global economy, rising interest cost
New Delhi (PTI): Fitch Ratings on Thursday slashed India's GDP growth projection for FY23 to 7 per cent, saying the economy is expected to slow against the backdrop of global economy, elevated inflation and high interest rate.
In June, it had forecast 7.8 per cent growth for India.
“We expect the economy to slow, given the global economic backdrop, elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy. We now expect the economy to grow 7 per cent in the financial year to end-March 2023 (FY23) from 7.8 per cent previously, with FY24 also slowing to 6.7 per cent from 7.4 per cent before,” Fitch said in its September edition of the Global Economic Outlook.
As per official GDP estimates, the Indian economy expanded 13.5 per cent in June quarter, higher than 4.10 per cent growth clocked in January-March.
The RBI expects the economy to grow 7.2 per cent in current fiscal year.
The rating agency said, inflation moderated in August as crude oil prices eased but the risk to food inflation persists, given negative seasonality towards the end of this year.
The wholesale-price based inflation softened to an 11-month low of 12.41 per cent in August, even though retail inflation inched up to 7 per cent.
Fitch said that the RBI has already front-loaded its policy rate hikes, tightening by a total of 140 basis points since the start of 2022 to 5.4 per cent in August.
“We expect the RBI to continue raising, to 5.9 per cent, before year-end. The RBI remains focused on reducing inflation, but said that its decisions would continue to be calibrated, measured and nimble and dependent on the unfolding dynamics of inflation and economic activity. We therefore expect policy rates to peak in the near future and to remain at 6 per cent throughout next year,” Fitch said.
The US-based agency said that it expects the rupee value to remain at 79 against the US dollar by the end of 2022, while the retail inflation is expected to remain at around 6.2 per cent.
It said supply shocks and inflation are hitting the world economy hard and expects the world GDP to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2022, revised down by 0.5 percentage points.
In 2023, the world GDP will grow by just 1.7 per cent, 1 percentage points lower than previous estimates.
“The eurozone and UK are now expected to enter recession later this year and the US is expected to suffer a mild recession in mid-2023,” Fitch said.
Speaking on China, it said the recovery is constrained by the pandemic restrictions and a prolonged property slump, while projecting growth to slow to 2.8 per cent this year and recover to only 4.5 per cent next year.
“We've had something of a perfect storm for the global economy in recent months, with the gas crisis in Europe, a sharp acceleration in interest rate rises, and a deepening property slump in China,” said Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, Fitch Ratings.
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Brazil's Ancelotti raises doubts about whether Neymar will reach the 2026 World Cup
Sao Paulo (AP): Brazil coach Carlo Ancelotti raised doubts about whether Neymar will be in his squad for the 2026 World Cup. The Italian has yet to pick the former captain since he took over in May.
“If Neymar deserves to be (in the squad), if he is, well, better than others, he will play in the World Cup and that's it. (But) I don't have debts to anyone,” Ancelotti said at a press conference in Washington on Friday following the draw.
Brazil is in Group C with Morocco, Haiti and Scotland.
“If we speak about Neymar, we have to speak about other players,” Ancelotti added. “We have to think about Brazil with or without Neymar, with or without other players. Our final list we will make after the FIFA fixtures in March.”
The 33-year-old Neymar has never fully recovered from a torn ACL in October 2023 during a World Cup qualifier against Uruguay. But he's been key for Santos in its fight to avoid relegation in the Brazilian championship.
On Wednesday, he scored a hat trick for Santos despite a muscular injury. He is expected to play again on Sunday against Cruzeiro.
Ancelotti said Brazil does not have a “referential player” at the moment, a tag for the most valuable player that Neymar has mainly worn since the 2014 home World Cup.
“We have one of the world's best goalkeepers, some of the best defenders, top midfielders and some players up front. I don't want players who want to be the best in the world, I want players who want to win the World Cup,” Ancelotti said.
Asked about his team's group, Ancelotti said Brazil can top it.
“We can win all three matches, our idea is very clear. We need to be competitive during the entire World Cup. Our goal is to play in the final and for that to happen you need to face very strong teams anyway.”
Brazil won the last of its five World Cup trophies in 2002.
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