Gold, silver prices to remain elevated amid global uncertainties: Economic Survey
New Delhi (PTI): Gold and silver prices are expected to remain at elevated levels amid persisting global uncertainties, unless a durable peace is established and trade wars are resolved, according to Economic Survey 2025-26.
The survey highlighted that both gold and silver touched lifetime highs during 2025, reflecting heightened global uncertainty and strong safe-haven demand.
The rally was buoyed by a weakening US dollar, expectations of persistently negative real rates, and the market's growing assessment of geopolitical and financial tail risks.
"The prices of precious metals, both gold and silver, are likely to continue increasing due to their sustained demand as safe-haven investments amid global uncertainties, unless a durable peace is established and trade wars are resolved," said the survey tabled in Parliament.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), silver futures crossed the record Rs 4 lakh per kg barrier on Thursday soaring by 6.3 per cent, while gold touched fresh all-time high of Rs 1.8 lakh per 10 grams.
Some commentators feel that the torrid pace set by gold and silver in 2025 may not be sustained, it added.
Meanwhile, gold prices ended at Rs 1,39,201 per 10 grams, while silver closed at Rs 2,35,701 per kilogram recorded on December 31, 2025, on the MCX.
In retail markets, gold and silver settled lower at Rs 1,37,700 per 10 grams and Rs 2,39,000 per kg in retail markets, recorded at the end of last year.
In FY25, India's import composition continues to be dominated by petroleum crude, gold and petroleum products, with these sectors accounting for over one-third of total imports. Gold imports increased by 27.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) basis.
The increase in gold imports may be attributed to a rise in gold prices, increasing by 38.2 per cent (YoY) and driven by strong domestic consumption, the survey said.
Meanwhile, foreign currency assets (FCA), which form the liquid core of reserves, softened slightly from USD 567.6 billion in end March 2025 to USD 560.5 billion as of 16 January 2026.
In contrast, the gold component rose sharply to USD 117.5 billion as of 16 January 2026, compared with USD 78.2 billion at the end of March 2025, it added.
This increase reflects both valuation gains during a period of elevated global gold prices and a continued preference among central banks for diversifying into non-dollar reserve assets.
The growing share of gold in reserves aligns with a broader international pattern where many emerging markets have increased gold holdings amid geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in the global interest-rate cycle, it said.
According to the survey, gold prices soared from USD 2,607 to USD 4,315 per ounce in 2025, marking one of the steepest annual gains in recent years.
On the other hand, base metals, such as iron, copper, and aluminium, are expected to increase moderately. Copper is likely to keep its price elevated due to strong demand from green technology and data centres, coupled with supply disruptions.
However, the survey cited the World Bank’s Commodity Prices Outlook, October 2025, which projected that global commodity prices are expected to decline by approximately 7 per cent in FY27, primarily driven by subdued crude oil prices amid oversupply.
"Geopolitics may come in the way of this prediction," it said.
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Ayodhya GST Deputy Commissioner under probe over alleged fake disability certificate: Official
Mau (UP) (PTI): Prashant Kumar Singh, who resigned as GST Deputy Commissioner on Tuesday in protest against alleged "objectionable" remarks by Shankaracharya Avimukteshwaranand against Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, is under probe over the authenticity of his disability certificate, an official said here.
Mau Chief Medical Officer (CMO) Dr Sanjay Gupta said on Wednesday that a complaint seeking re-examination of Singh's disability certificate was filed in 2021, and the investigation was being conducted at multiple levels, including the Health Department, the Office of the Divyangjan Ayog and higher administrative authorities.
After Prashant Kumar Singh announced his resignation in Ayodhya, where he has been posted, his brother Vishwajeet Singh alleged before the media that the GST officer had secured his government job using a fake disability certificate.
According to the CMO, the disability certificate in question was issued in 2009. A complaint seeking re-examination of the certificate was filed in 2021, and since then, the verification process has been underway.
“This matter has been in my knowledge since 2021 and the inquiry process has been continuing since then,” Gupta said.
He said that following the complaint, the officer was summoned twice before the divisional disability medical board for assessment of around 40 per cent disability, but he failed to appear on both occasions.
Gupta said that on December 19, the Health Department issued an official letter seeking directions from the Director General of Health Services in the matter.
A copy of the letter was also sent to the complainant, Vishwajeet Singh.
The entire case has been communicated to the office of the Divyangjan Ayog, Gupta said, adding that all required procedures at their level have been completed and further action will be taken after receiving instructions from higher authorities.
Responding to claims that the disability pertains to an eye-related condition considered rare even at the age of 50, the CMO said that only an expert medical board can give a final and authentic opinion on such issues.
"There is no pressure on me of any kind. The entire process is being carried out in a transparent manner and strictly as per rules,” Gupta said, adding that the matter is currently pending before the Divyangjan Commissioner, the Health Directorate and other higher institutions concerned.
Further action will be initiated once directions are received, he said
Singh had on Tuesday resigned in protest against Shankaracharya Avimukteshwaranand's alleged "objectionable" remarks against Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, saying that he was deeply hurt by what he described as recent attempts to divide the country on the basis of caste and religion.
Singh said that he was stepping down in support of the government, the Constitution and the country's elected leadership.
"From the holy land of Prayagraj, Shankaracharya Avimukteshwaranand has made objectionable remarks against our state's elected leader, who is constitutionally holding the post," he said.
As a government servant bound by service rules, Singh said, he could not remain indifferent to such developments, he had said.
Jyotish Peeth Shankaracharya Swami Avimukteshwaranand Saraswati had lashed out at Chief Minister Adityanath after police allegedly stopped him and his followers from going in a chariot for a holy dip in the Ganga during the Magh Mela in Prayagraj on the occasion of Mauni Amavasya on January 18.
A day later, the Magh Mela administration issued a notice to Avimukteshwaranand, asking how he was projecting himself as the Shankaracharya of Jyotish Peeth despite a Supreme Court order saying that no religious leader could be anointed as Shankaracharya of Jyotish Peeth until the disposal of an appeal.
