Moody's Investors Service sees India's economic growth at zero' in FY21
Mumbai: Moody's Investors Service on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth to hit zero' in FY21 and pointed to a wide fiscal deficit, high government debt, weak social and physical infrastructure, and a fragile financial sector.
The quality of India's economic growth has declined in recent years, demonstrated by financial stress among rural households, relatively low productivity and weak job creation, the agency said.
In its forecast for FY21, the agency estimated India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth at zero, meaning the country's economic growth will remain flat this financial year, and the same is seen accelerating to 6.6 per cent in FY22.
In its credit opinion which comes following the change in the forecast, Moody's warned that the COVID-19 "shock will exacerbate an already material slowdown in economic growth, which has significantly reduced prospects for durable fiscal consolidation".
Analysts across the board have been certain about the heavy economic toll that the pandemic will take on the country.
Moody's local arm Icra has pegged for a contraction of up to 2 per cent in the growth as a result of the crisis, which has seen the country being put under a lockdown for nearly two months to arrest the spread of infections.
Late last month, Moody's had slashed its calendar year 2020 GDP growth forecast to 0.2 per cent.
Its negative outlook on the sovereign rating, which was revised last in November 2019 from stable', reflects increasing risks that economic growth will remain significantly lower than in the past, it said, adding that this takes into account the deep shock triggered by the virus outbreak.
Meanwhile, India's credit strengths include a large and diverse economy, favourable demographic potential and a stable domestic financing base to fund the government debt, it noted.
In March, the government had announced a relief package worth Rs 1.7 lakh crore, and there are speculations of another follow-up package in the offing.
These measures will reduce the depth and duration of India's growth slowdown, but there is a probability of an "entrenched weakening" on prolonged financial stress among rural households, weak job creation and a credit crunch among non-bank financial institutions, it said.
Reform prospects, which can take care of some of the concerns with the Indian economy, have "diminished", the agency said.
It further warned that a downgrade in the rating could happen if the fiscal metrics weakened materially, and made it clear that a "negative" outlook indicates that an upgrade in the rating is unlikely in the near term.
However, the outlook can be changed to "stable" if the fiscal metrics stabilise, it added.
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What is Iran’s 10-point plan? Key demands ahead of US talks in Islamabad
Tehran/Islamabad: Iran has outlined a 10-point plan as the basis for upcoming talks with the United States, expected to begin in Islamabad on April 11, according to a statement from the Iranian Supreme National Security Council.
The plan lays out Tehran’s key political, military and economic demands, and is being seen as a framework for negotiations following the recent escalation in the region.
Strait of Hormuz at the centre
A major focus of the plan is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route. Iran has proposed “controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Iranian armed forces,” which it says would give the country a unique economic and geopolitical position.
The plan also calls for the “establishment of a safe transit protocol” in the Strait that would guarantee Iran’s dominance under an agreed mechanism.
Call to end conflict
Iran has demanded “the necessity of ending the war against all elements of the axis of resistance,” signalling its expectation that hostilities should stop not only in Iran but also involving allied groups in the region.
US troop withdrawal
Another key demand is the “withdrawal of US combat forces from all bases and deployment points in the region,” indicating Tehran’s long-standing position against American military presence in West Asia.
Sanctions relief and compensation
The plan places strong emphasis on economic measures. It calls for “full payment of Iran’s damages according to estimates,” along with “the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions and resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council.”
It also seeks “the release of all Iranian assets and properties frozen abroad,” which have been a major point of contention for years.
Binding global guarantee
Finally, Iran has demanded that all these terms be formally recognised through “a binding Security Council resolution,” suggesting it wants international legal backing to ensure enforcement.
What this means
The 10-point plan reflects Iran’s broader push for security guarantees, economic relief and regional influence. The upcoming talks in Islamabad are expected to test how far both sides are willing to negotiate on these demands.
