Can anti-BJP parties unite?
A very intense discussion is going on in the corridors of politics on whether defeating the communal BJP is possible during the most crucial 2019 Lok Sabha elections. A close look may reveal defeating BJP is not even any easier. At the same time, it is not a herculean challenge too. BJP has not fulfilled many promises it had made to the public in the run up to the elections. People have suffered through GST and demonetization processes. But at the outset, Modi’s charm has not waned with time or challenges. People still place their trust on him.
But some awakening seems to have happened among the opposition parties, with less than a year to go for the Lok Sabha polls. The anti-BJP parties now know if they do not unite, they can never stop the BJP juggernaut. However, the saving grace is also the fact that the bypolls in UP show anti-BJP parties can come together to defeat BJP. SP and BSP came together in the Uttar Pradesh to fight the bypolls and won against BJP candidates.
And when the new CM representing the JD(S) and Congress coalition took oath, anti-BJP parties came together in Bengaluru starting from Trinamool Congress to Marxist Communist party to send out a strong message. They put up a united front. Along with regional parties, even Congress took part in this display of solidarity.
Though BJP President Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi come refer to ‘Congress-mukt’ Bharat, their main aim is to achieve a democracy-mukt Bharat and opposition parties-mukt Bharat. They want a free run, and do not like anybody questioning them. Hence, Congress is not their sole aim but they want to wipe off regional parties from the map of India as well. They snatched power from the hands of CPM in Tripura, the illegal means by which they formed a government in Goa, their attempts to kill Dravida parties in Tamil Nadu, and their unrelenting efforts to finish off regional parties in other parts of the nation show their eagerness to achieve their goal. Amit Shah and Modi are supported by RSS. Sangh Parivar believes both of them can deliver the dream nation Parivar wants to build. Corporates too love the duo because they protect the interest of private sector. They would love to see Modi continue in the same position.
Hence, the upcoming Lok Sabha elections are very crucial. The opposition parties need to lock this sturdy unchallenged horse in the stable. Congress alone cannot do this, and even the party knows it well. That’s the reason Congress reached out to offer support to JD(S) to form government when the party didn’t get a majority in the Karnataka elections. The talks between Cong high-command and JD(S) Supremo Devegowda bore fruits. When the new government came into existence, the leaders ensured it sent a larger message to BJP than just a swearing in ceremony of anti-BJP government. The split in opposition parties is the main reason for BJP’s victory in many places. In UP, BSP and SP contesting separately, ensured a total of 73 seats for them. Had they contested together, the parties probably wouldn’t have been able to achieve this is something they know from the bypolls conducted for 2 seats in that state. BJP and Shiv Sena together had entered coalition in Maharashtra and won 48 Lok Sabha seats with BJP winning 23 and Shiv Sena clinching 18 seats.
Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP had contested separately for this elections. But if the anti-BJP parties come together, the challenge for BJP will only get bigger and a lot more complicated. Last time Telugu Desam had joined hands with BJP in Andhra and now both have split ways. There are chances of left parties entering into an agreement with Andhra in the upcoming elections, making BJP’s prize run a bit tougher. Yet, the solidarity of anti-BJP parties is laden with challenges too. They are not together in total understanding and solidarity. Communist and Congress parties are major opponents of BJP in Kerala. Trinamool Congress and CPM pose solid challenge to BJP in West Bengal. Congress has adopted soft approach towards regional parties in Karnataka, and this has to continue till the parties face 2019 elections. All these provisions have to be made for 2019 Lok Sabha elections to put up a strong front against BJP. They need to come together under common programme to defeat BJP in 2019 elections.
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Rupee falls 8 paise to hit all-time low of 84.50 against US dollar
Mumbai, Nov 21: The rupee depreciated 8 paise to settle at an all-time low of 84.50 against the US dollar on Thursday, dragged down by massive sell-off in domestic equity markets and surging crude oil prices amid a volatile geopolitical situation.
According to forex traders, the American currency strengthened due to safe-haven appeal amid escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine, while the continuous outflow of foreign funds also put pressure on the domestic unit.
At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.41 and touched the lowest-ever level of 84.51 against the greenback during intra-day. The unit ended the session at 84.50 against the dollar, surpassing its previous all-time low closing level of 84.46 recorded on November 14.
On Tuesday, the rupee had settled flat at 84.42 against the US dollar.
The foreign exchange market was closed on Wednesday on account of assembly elections in Maharashtra.
"We expect the rupee to trade around 84.5 against the dollar by end December. A strong dollar continues to create a depreciating bias for currencies globally and is likely to sustain FPI outflows from Indian markets in the near-term.
"However, interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), supported by India's healthy foreign exchange reserves, should help keep rupee volatility in check," said Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings.
FPIs have withdrawn approximately USD 4 billion from Indian markets in November, following a record USD 11 billion in outflows in October. While high US Treasury yields and a strong dollar have contributed to these outflows, other domestic factors have also been at play, such as muted corporate earnings and high valuations.
"Over the medium-term, we expect the rupee to trade around 84 by the end of FY25, supported by India's strong fundamentals, including a manageable current account deficit, inclusion in global bond indices, fiscal consolidation and stronger growth relative to other emerging markets. These factors should help maintain India's attractiveness as an investment destination," Sinha added.
Sinha further said "going forward, it will be crucial to monitor the implementation of Trump's policies and China's response, as these will play a key role in shaping market dynamics."
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.02 per cent at 106.66.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged by 1.84 per cent to USD 74.15 per barrel in futures trade.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said the rupee weakened as pressure mounted due to the dollar scaling higher above 106.65 amidst renewed global uncertainties with geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine adding to global risk aversion.
At the same time, sell-off in domestic equity markets was fuelled after the Adani Group faced bribery and fraud charges in the US. "This has further fuelled FII outflows, continuing the trend of capital flight from Indian markets," Trivedi said.
In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 422.59 points, or 0.54 per cent, to close at 77,155.79 points, while Nifty tanked 168.60 points, or 0.72 per cent, to settle at 23,349.90 points.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 5,320.68 crore, according to exchange data.
