When Will This War Finally End?
Three weeks into the US-Iran war, the world is holding its breath. Families in the Gulf are scared. Oil prices are shaking. And quietly, even Washington seems to be asking itself — how do we get out of this?
To understand when this war might stop, we first need to understand why it even started — and why it has not gone the way America planned.
America Walked In Overconfident
When the US launched its attack on Iran on February 28, it had three big beliefs. First, it thought the world was still in its favour — Russia was stuck in Ukraine, China was dealing with its own problems. Second, it believed that heavy bombing alone could shake Iran's leadership and break its will to fight. This is the old "shock and awe" idea — bomb hard, bomb fast, and the enemy will fall. Third, it counted on its many military bases and allies across West Asia to give it total control.
All three beliefs turned out to be wrong.
Iran Hit Back — And Hit Hard
Iran did not collapse. It hit back directly at American bases across the Persian Gulf. Satellite images confirmed that 25 targets were struck across seven US bases in five countries — radar systems, fuel storage, aircraft shelters, supply buildings. Even Donald Trump admitted publicly that he was surprised by Iran's sharp and effective response.
This changed everything.
Suddenly, the US bases that were supposed to be launching pads became weak points. Iran proved it could strike them. This created what experts call "mutually assured destruction" — a situation where both sides can hurt each other so badly that neither can attack freely without suffering serious damage in return. Think of two people standing very close to each other, both holding knives. Neither can strike without getting hurt themselves. That is exactly the position the US finds itself in today.
This is also why Trump quickly pulled back after Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field. Iran immediately targeted energy facilities in the Gulf. The risk of a much bigger explosion — economically and militarily — became too real to ignore.
Iran Was Always Misunderstood
Here is something most people do not realise. Iran does not fight like America. The US military is built to travel far, carry heavy weapons, and fight high-tech wars in other people's countries. Iran's military is built differently — simpler, smarter, and designed for one purpose: to make sure anyone who attacks Iran suffers badly in return.
This strategy is called "deterrence by punishment." In plain words — I cannot match you weapon for weapon, but if you hit me, I will hit you back so hard that you will regret it. Iran has spent years building a large stockpile of missiles and drones that are hard to destroy even from the air, and some of which can pass through American and Israeli defence systems. The 12-day war in 2025 already showed the world a glimpse of this.
Because most people judged Iran by American or NATO standards, they completely underestimated it. That was a costly mistake.
So When Does This End?
Three weeks in, America has not broken Iran's military. It has not broken Iran's political unity either. The big goals that Washington and the Pentagon announced at the start now look unrealistic. Public support for the war inside the US is falling. Global markets are nervous. Energy prices are unstable.
Reports, including from Iran's own Foreign Minister, say the US has already quietly tried to push for a ceasefire multiple times. But there is a big gap between what each side wants. The US wants to end the war but still keep its military influence in the region. Iran wants a lasting peace where its security is genuinely respected and the regional balance shifts in its favour. These two positions are almost impossible to bridge right now.
So the honest answer to "when will this war stop" is — not soon, and not easily.
As the real costs of the war become impossible to hide — for American taxpayers, for Gulf economies, for global oil supply — pressure will build on Washington to sit down for serious peace talks. That moment may come. But it will only come when the pain of continuing becomes greater than the pride of not giving in.
There is one more danger. Parts of this conflict are now deeply tied to internal American politics, with hidden groups who may actually benefit from keeping the war going — what strategists call a "fifth column." When powerful people profit from war, peace becomes even harder to achieve.
Until that changes, the world waits. And pays the price.
(Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany.)
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views, policies, or position of the publication, its editors, or its management. The publication is not responsible for the accuracy of any information, statements, or opinions presented in this piece.
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A political legacy, but no win yet: Padmaja Venugopal''s new fight in Thrissur
Thrissur(Kerala) (PTI): Sons of prominent political leaders in Kerala have successfully established themselves in state politics as MPs, MLAs and ministers, even during the peak of their fathers' influence.
Such emergence, however, has been far less common among daughters -- and Padmaja Venugopal is one such exception, although she has not won an election so far.
Padmaja, the daughter of late Congress stalwart and former Chief Minister K Karunakaran, entered electoral politics at a time when "Leader", as he was respectfully known among Congress leaders and workers, was still shaping the course of politics in the state.
Despite contesting from the erstwhile Congress stronghold of Mukundapuram in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, she lost, largely due to the growing factionalism that had gripped the party at the time.
The same factionalism was widely believed to have affected her prospects again when she contested Assembly elections in 2016 and 2021 as a Congress candidate.
This time, however, she is hoping for better fortunes from this central Kerala Assembly constituency-- not as a Congress candidate, but a BJP leader.
Though she quit the Congress in 2024 alleging complete negligence, Padmaja is banking on her family's long political legacy in the state's cultural capital, Thrissur, as well as the BJP's steadily increasing vote share in the region.
The party also secured a significant breakthrough in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning the Thrissur seat with actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi as its candidate.
However, she faces a tough contest in the constituency from the Left candidate Alankode Leelakrishnan and the Congress nominee Rajan Pallan.
While Leelakrishnan, a noted poet and writer, is seeking to continue his party's electoral success in the seat, Pallan is aiming to build on the Congress party's performance in the recent local body elections in the Thrissur Corporation.
Raghunath C Menon, the BJP's Thrissur mandalam president and a corporation councillor, said that Padmaja would "definitely win" this time, as she had lost by only around 900 votes in 2021.
Menon, a close aide of Padmaja, said there are around 1.6 lakh registered voters in the constituency, of whom about 1.2 lakh are expected to cast their votes.
"We need just 45 per cent of the votes to win here, and we are confident of achieving that. The direct contest is between us and the UDF. The CPI candidate is relatively weak," he told PTI.
Binoy Viswam, the CPI state secretary, said that Alankode Leelakrishnan had been fielded from the seat as Thrissur is the cultural capital of Kerala, and a poet was the most suitable choice.
"We should have cultural figures in the Assembly. We want people with diverse talents -- women, activists, youngsters and others -- to represent all sections of society. People have taken him (Leelakrishnan) very seriously," Viswam said.
He added that the LDF would highlight the overall development and welfare initiatives carried out by its government in the constituency over the past decade.
"The CPI won in 2016 and 2021, and its MLAs have done a great deal for the city, which no one can deny," he told PTI.
When asked whether Padmaja’s candidature as the BJP nominee -- in a seat where the party has steadily increased its vote share -- would affect the CPI's chances, Viswam said that "all true believers are with us".
He also asserted, "Whoever contests from there, we will win."
Pallan, the Congress-led UDF candidate, also expressed confidence of victory from the Hindu-majority constituency, saying that the results of the 2021 Assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls would not influence the outcome of the April 9 polls.
In 2021, CPI's P Balachandran secured 44,263 votes, with a 34.25 per cent vote share, compared to party candidate V S Sunil Kumar's 53,664 votes and a 42.19 per cent vote share in 2016, according to Election Commission data.
In both years, the BJP's vote share increased--from 6,697 votes in 2011 to 24,748 (19.46 per cent) in 2016 and 40,457 (31.30 per cent) in 2021 -- while the Congress vote declined from 59,991 in 2011 to 46,677 in 2016 and 43,317 in 2021.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, of the 1,31,858 votes polled in the Thrissur Assembly segment, Suresh Gopi secured 55,057 votes -- a 41.75 per cent share -- as per ECI data.
Pallan said the recent local body elections, in which the Congress won the Thrissur Corporation, were a better indicator of the likely outcome in the constituency.
"Of the 40 divisions in the corporation, we won 25. In addition, we already have a lead of over 10,000 votes in the seat," Pallan told PTI.
When asked how the UDF plans to counter Padmaja’s political lineage and the BJP’s growing vote share in Thrissur, Pallan said that while he does not underestimate any candidate, the Congress-led front would emerge victorious.
Menon dismissed the relevance of the recent local body election results, saying it was based on familiarity, but Assembly and parliamentary polls are driven by political considerations.
Padmaja herself recently expressed confidence of victory.
"I am confident of winning from Thrissur as I have faith in the people here. The BJP focuses on winning as a party rather than on individual candidates. That is a great relief for me," she said.
