Economic slowdown 'very worrisome', new set of reforms needed: Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan
New Delhi, Aug 19: Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has called slowdown in the economy "very worrisome" and said the government needs to fix the immediate problems in power and non-bank financial sectors and come out with a new set of reforms to energise private sector to invest.
Rajan, who was Governor of the Reserve Bank of India from 2013 to 2016 but was denied a second term, also called for a fresh look at the way GDP in India is calculated as he referred to research by Narendra Modi government's former chief economist Arvind Subramanian about overestimation of growth rate.
"There are a variety of growth projections from the private sector analysts, many of which are perhaps significantly below government projections and I think certainly the slowdown in the economy is something that is very worrisome," Rajan told CNBC TV18.
India's economic growth has slowed to 6.8 per cent in 2018-19 - the slowest pace since 2014-15, and various projections by private experts and the central bank estimate that the GDP growth in the current year will be less than government estimate of 7 per cent.
In ominous signs that the slowdown may be deep, the auto sector is facing its worst crisis in two decades with reports suggesting thousands of job losses in the automobile and ancillary industry, real estate sector has huge unsold inventory, while fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies have reported a decline in volume growth.
"You can hear businesses all around worrying and complaining out loud that they need some kind of stimulus," he said.
Rajan said "a fresh set of reforms" are now needed to boost the economy and growth rate.
"We need a fresh set of reforms informed by view on what we want India to be and I would love for that view to be articulated at the very top (that) here is the kind of economy that we want. One-off programs here and there don't amount to a comprehensive reform agenda for the economy," he said, adding borrowing in international markets is not really a reform but a "tactical action".
"What we really need is an understanding of how we are going to propel this country by the two or three percentage points greater growth that it needs and that needs fixing the immediate problems such as in the power sector, such as in the non-bank financial sector and those need to be done yesterday, not in the next six months, it is very important that those be tackled immediately," he said.
Rajan advocated for a new set of reforms to get the private sector to invest.
"We need a new set of reforms, which energise the private sector to invest. Sops, stimulus of one kind or the other are not going to be that useful in the longer-term especially given the very tight fiscal situation that we have. Instead bold reforms, well thought of, not jumping off the cliff, but really seriously thought out reforms in a variety of areas which energise the Indian people, energise the Indian markets and energise Indian business.
"This is what we need today and I really hope we put our best minds to think about this because absent that my sense is that we are in for not so good times," he said.
The former governor also drew attention to former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian's research that GDP growth was overestimated by 2.5 per cent during 2011-12 and 2016-17.
"I also think that we should pay attention to some of the arguments made by the former chief economist Arvind Subramanian that in fact we may be overestimating growth with some of the new GDP data and I would suggest - I have been saying this for some time - we need fresh look from an independent group of experts at the way we compute GDP and make sure that we are not in a sense having GDP numbers that mislead and cause the wrong kinds of policy actions," he said.
On the ongoing global economic slowdown, Rajan said that in comparison to the 2008 financial crisis, the banks are better levered across the globe.
"History never repeats. So, I think there is more leverage than there was in 2008 but it is not in the same places. Banks are less levered than they were then. On the other hand, some corporate sectors, certainly in the United States are more levered, certainly in China are more levered and of course governments are more levered," he said. "So, leverage was the big factor in 2008, it is different today. Not necessarily better, but different."
Rajan said that he can't predict another big financial crash but if it comes, it will be from different sources.
"The big issue today is not so much the financial sector frenzy, there is some but real (issue) is trade and global investments and the worries are that if we don't pay enough attention, the old global order is going out of the window and there is nothing really to replace it to keep countries from doing things that serve their own interest rather than the global interest. So, it is a different world," he said.
Asked about 2008 meltdown repeating, he said: "Do I predict a big crash coming? I don't know but I do think that it is going to come from different sources and simply fixing the old problems is not going to prevent the new ones".
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Never entered into pact to operate airport in Kenya: Adani group
New Delhi, Nov 23: Billionaire Gautam Adani's group on Saturday clarified on reports of Kenya cancelling more than USD 2.5 billion in deals after US indictment on bribery charges, saying it had not entered into any binding agreement to operate Kenya's main airport.
On the pact it had signed last month to build and operate key electricity transmission lines in Kenya for 30 years, the group said the project did not fall within the ambit of Sebi's disclosure regulations, thereby not warranting any disclosure on its cancellation.
The group was responding to notices sent by stock exchanges to confirm reports of Kenyan President William Ruto ordering the cancellation of a procurement process that had been expected to award control of the country's main airport after the conglomerate's founder was indicted in the United States.
Adani Enterprises Ltd, the flagship firm of billionaire Gautam Adani's group which houses its airport business, in a filing said it had in August this year incorporated a step-down subsidiary in Kenya to upgrade, modernise, and manage airports.
"While the company was in discussion with the relevant authority for the said project, till date neither the company nor its subsidiaries (i) have been awarded any airport project in Kenya, or (ii) entered into any binding or definitive agreement in connection with any airport in Kenya," the firm said.
It did not confirm or deny reports of Kenya cancelling the airport deal.
Adani Energy Solutions Ltd, the firm that operates power transmission lines, in a separate filing said on October 9 it was awarded the project to construct transmission lines in Kenya. Thereafter, it had incorporated a step-down subsidiary in Kenya.
"We submit that the project does not fall within the ambit of item 4 of Para B, Part A, Schedule III of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015, as amended (Sebi Listing Regulations) which requires intimation to be made for any awarding, bagging/ receiving, amendment or termination of awarded/bagged orders/contracts other than in the ordinary course of business," it said refusing to confirm or deny the cancellation.
It went on to state that the award of the project was in the ordinary course of business of the company and its subsidiaries as they are engaged in the business of transmission and distribution of energy (among other things).
"Consequently, any cancellation of such Project will also not fall within the ambit of item 4 of Para B, Part A, Schedule III of the Sebi Listing Regulations," it added.
Under the proposed airport deal worth nearly USD 2 billion, the conglomerate was to add a second runway at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport and upgrade the passenger terminal. It was also to operate it on a 30-year lease.
Kenya's President in his state of the nation address on Thursday also stated that he was cancelling a separate 30-year, USD 736-million public-private partnership that an Adani Group firm signed with the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum last month to construct power transmission lines.
That followed US authorities indicting group Founder and Chairman Gautam Adani and seven others for allegedly agreeing to pay USD 265 million to Indian officials to win lucrative solar power supply contracts.
The Adani Group denied the allegations as baseless and said it would seek "all possible legal recourse".
The tender to operate Kenya's main airport was put on hold following local protests.
Adani Energy Solutions Ltd had last month signed a project agreement with the Kenya Electricity Transmission Company Ltd (Ketraco) for developing three transmission lines and two substations.
