Global economy could witness losses worth up to USD 8.8 trillion due to COVID-19: ADB
New Delhi:The global economy is expected to suffer USD 5.8-8.8 trillion in losses due to the coronavirus pandemic, Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Friday.
Of this, the impact on south Asian gross domestic product (GDP) will be to the tune of USD 142-218 billion.
"The global economy could suffer between USD 5.8 trillion and USD 8.8 trillion in losses - equivalent to 6.4 per cent to 9.7 per cent of the global GDP - as a result of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, ADB said in a new report subsequent to its economic outlook released in early April.
The GDP in south Asia will also be lower by 3.9-6.0 per cent, mainly reflecting the tight restrictions in place in countries like Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, ADB said in is updated assessment of the Potential Economic Impact of COVID-19.
The Manila-headquartered multi-lateral funding agency said that the economic losses in Asia and the Pacific region could range from USD 1.7 trillion under a short containment scenario of three months to USD 2.5 trillion under a long containment scenario of 6 months, with the region accounting for about 30 per cent of the overall decline in global output.
The People's Republic of China (PRC) could suffer losses between USD 1.1 trillion and USD 1.6 trillion.
In the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 published on April 3, the agency had estimated COVID-19's global cost to range from USD 2 trillion to USD 4.1 trillion.
Earlier on March 6, it had estimated the economic impact globally ranging from USD 77 billion to USD 347 billion (0.1 to 0.4 per cent of global GDP).
ADB said its new analysis which expects global impact of USD 5.8-8.8 trillion is excluding the impact of policy measures.
The agency's new estimate is more than double the World Bank's estimate of 2-4 decline in global GDP, and higher than the IMF's World Economic Outlook estimate of 6.3 per cent decline in global GDP.
Governments around the world have been quick in responding to the impacts of the pandemic, implementing measures such as fiscal and monetary easing, increased health spending and direct support to cover losses in incomes and revenues.
Sustained efforts from governments focused on these measures could soften COVID-19's economic impact by as much as 30 to 40 per cent, according to the new report.
"This could reduce global economic losses due to the pandemic to between USD 4.1 trillion and USD 5.4 trillion," ADB added.
The ADB analysis has used a Global Trade Analysis Project-computable general equilibrium model, covering 96 outbreak-affected economies with over 4 million COVID-19 cases.
In addition to shocks to tourism, consumption, investment, and trade and production linkages covered in the ADO 2020 estimates, the new report includes transmission channels such as the increase in trade costs affecting mobility, tourism, and other industries; supply-side disruptions that adversely affect output and investment; and government policy responses that mitigate the effects of COVID-19's global economic impact.
This new analysis presents a broad picture of the very significant potential economic impact of COVID-19, said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada.
It also highlights the important role policy interventions can play to help mitigate damage to economies. These findings can provide governments with a relevant policy guide as they develop and implement measures to contain and suppress the pandemic, and lessen its impacts on their economies and people.
ADB said that policy makers should work together to quickly limit the pandemic - the longer the containment period, the more difficult and prolonged the recovery will be.
"Strong income and employment protection are critical to support the most vulnerable and avoid long-term economic scarring," it said.
By May 12, the virus had spread to 213 countries and territories worldwide, infecting more than 4 million people and causing more than 2,80,000 deaths, ADB said.
On the impact on wage incomes due to the pandemics, ADB expects it to fall globally especially in the US, the EU, and the UK.
"Globally, labour income will drop between USD 1.2 trillion to USD 1.8 trillion. For Asia, the decline in wage income will range from USD 359 billion to USD 550 billion - or about 30 per cent of the global drop in wage income," it added.
The report has analysed that the macroeconomic stabilisation packages announced by various countries could raise global GDP by USD 1.7 trillion to USD 3.4 trillion (1.9 to 3.7 per cent of global GDP).
For Asia, macroeconomic stimulus could also add USD 339 billion to USD 675 billion (1.3 to 2.5 per cent of the region's GDP).
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MP HC sets up judicial commission to probe water contamination in Indore
Indore (PTI): The Indore bench of Madhya Pradesh High Court on Tuesday set up a commission of inquiry comprising a former HC judge to probe the issue of water contamination in city's Bhagirathpura, saying the matter requires probe by an independent, credible authority and "urgent judicial scrutiny".
It also directed the commission to submit an interim report after four weeks from the date of commencement of proceedings.
A division bench of Justices Vijay Kumar Shukla and Alok Awasthi constituted the commission while hearing several public interest litigations (PILs) filed simultaneously regarding the deaths of several people in Bhagirathpura due to the consumption of contaminated water.
The HC reserved the order after hearing all the parties during the day, and released it late at night.
The state government on Tuesday told the HC that the deaths of 16 people in Indore's Bhagirathpura area was possibly linked to a month-long outbreak of vomiting and diarrhoea caused by contaminated drinking water.
The government presented an audit report of 23 deaths from the current gastroenteritis epidemic in Bhagirathpura before the bench, suggesting that 16 of these fatalities may have been linked to the outbreak of vomiting and diarrhoea caused by contaminated drinking water.
The report, prepared by a committee of five experts from the city's Government Mahatma Gandhi Memorial Medical College, stated that the deaths of four people in Bhagirathpura were unrelated to the outbreak, while no conclusion could be reached regarding the cause of death of three other people in the area.
During the hearing, the high court sought to know from the state government the scientific basis behind its report.
The division bench also expressed surprise at the state government's use of the term "verbal autopsy" in relation to the report, sarcastically stating that it had heard the term for the first time.
The HC expressed concern over the Bhagirathpura case, stating that the situation was "alarming," and noted that cases of people falling ill due to contaminated drinking water have also been reported in Mhow, near Indore.
In its order, the HC said the serious issue concerning contamination of the drinking water supply in Bhagirathpura area allegedly resulted in widespread health hazards to residents, including children and elderly persons.
According to the petitioners and media reports, death toll is about 30 till today, but the report depicts only 16 without any basis or record, it said.
It is averred that sewage mixing, leakage in the pipeline, and failure of civic authorities to maintain potable water standards have led to the outbreak of water-borne diseases. Photographs, medical reports, and complaints submitted to the authorities prima facie indicate a matter requiring urgent judicial scrutiny, the HC said.
"Considering the gravity of the allegation and affecting the right to life under Article 21 of the Constitution of India and the need for an independent fact-finding exercise, the Court is of the opinion that the matter requires investigation by an independent, credible authority," it said.
"Accordingly, we appoint Justice Sushil Kumar Gupta, former judge of the Madhya Pradesh High Court, a one-man commission of inquiry into the issues relating to water contamination in Bhagirathpura, Indore, and its impact on other areas of the city," the HC added.
As per the order, the commission shall inquire into and submit a report on the cause of contamination -- whether the drinking water supplied to Bhagirathpura was contaminated; and the source and nature of contamination (sewage ingress, industrial discharge, pipeline damage etc).
The panel will also probe the number of actual deaths of affected residents on account of contaminated water; find out the nature of disease reported and adequacy of medical response and preventive measures; suggest immediate steps required to ensure safe drinking water as well as long-term infrastructural and monitoring reforms.
It will also identify and fix responsibility upon the officers and officials found prima facie responsible for the Bhagirathpura water contamination incident, and suggest guidelines for compensation to affected residents, particularly vulnerable sections.
The commission shall have powers of a civil court for the purpose of summoning officials and witnesses; calling up records from the government department, hospitals, laboratories and civic bodies; ordering water quality testing through accredited laboratories; conducting spot inspections.
All state authorities involving district administration, Indore Municipal Corporation, public health engineering department and Madhya Pradesh Pollution Control Board shall extend full co-operation and provide records as sought by the commission, it said.
The state government shall provide office space, staff, and logistical support to the commission, it said.
During the hearing in the day, the state government also presented a status report to the court in this matter.
According to reports, a total of 454 patients were admitted to local hospitals during the vomiting and diarrhea outbreak, of whom 441 have been discharged after treatment, and 11 are currently hospitalised.
According to officials, due to a leak in the municipal drinking water pipeline in Bhagirathpura, sewage from a toilet was also mixed in the water.
