Growth in India projected to 'decelerate' to 11-year low of 5% in 2019-2020: World Bank
Washington, Jan 9: India's growth rate is projected to decelerate to five per cent in 2019-20 amid enduring financial sector issues, according to a World Bank report, which said the country's GDP was likely to recover to 5.8 per cent in the following financial year.
India's GDP growth is seen dipping to an 11-year low of 5 per cent in the current fiscal, mainly due to poor showing by manufacturing and construction sectors, government data showed on Tuesday.
"In India, where weakness in credit from non-bank financial companies is expected to linger, growth is projected to slow to five per cent in fiscal year 2019/20, which ends March 31 and recover to 5.8 per cent the following fiscal year," the Bank said in its latest edition of the Global Economic Prospects on Wednesday.
It said tighter credit conditions in the non-banking sector are contributing to a substantial weakening of the domestic demand in India.
"In India, activity was constrained by insufficient credit availability, as well as by subdued private consumption," the report stated.
The Bank said the regional growth in South Asia is expected to pick up gradually, to six per cent in 2022, on the assumption of a modest rebound in domestic demand.
"Growth in India is projected to decelerate to five per cent in FY(financial year) 2019/20 amid enduring financial sector issues," the WB report said.
It said key risks to the outlook include a sharper-than-expected slowdown in major economies, a re-escalation of regional geopolitical tensions, and a setback in reforms to address impaired balance sheets in the financial and corporate sectors.
In India, economic activity slowed substantially in 2019, with the deceleration most pronounced in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, whereas government-related services sub-sectors received significant support from public spending, the Bank said.
GDP growth decelerated to five per cent and 4.5 per cent in the April-June and July-September quarters of 2019, respectively, the lowest readings since 2013, it said.
Sharp slowdowns in household consumption and investment onset, the rise in government spending. High-frequency data suggest that activity continued to be weak for the rest of 2019, the Bank said.
The Bank, in the report, praised India's efforts to gradually eliminate subsidies on LPG. In India, starting in 2012, the government reformed its subsidy regime for liquified petroleum gas (LPG).
LPG subsidies to households encouraged the formation of black markets where subsidised LPG distributed to households was diverted to the commercial sector.
The government gradually increased the price of LPG for households while implementing a large-scale targeted cash transfer mechanism, it said.
"The programme successfully eliminated distortions in the LPG market, with limited adverse consequences for the poor, and the fiscal savings obtained from the reduction in subsidies fully offset the costs of the targeted cash transfer," the report stated.
In its report, the Bank said the global economic growth is forecast to edge up to 2.5 per cent in 2020 as investment and trade gradually recover from last year's significant weakness but downward risks persist.
America's growth is forecast to slow to 1.8 per cent this year, reflecting the negative impact of earlier tariff increases and elevated uncertainty. Euro Area growth is projected to slip to a downwardly revised one per cent in 2020 amid weak industrial activity, it said.
The growth rate for Bangladesh has been projected to remain above seven per cent through the forecast horizon and, in Pakistan, it is projected to languish at three per cent or less through 2020 as macroeconomic stabilisation efforts weigh on economic activity, the Bank said.
"With the growth in emerging and developing economies likely to remain slow, policymakers should seize the opportunity to undertake structural reforms that boost broad-based growth, which is essential to poverty reduction," the World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, said.
"Steps to improve the business climate, the rule of law, debt management, and productivity can help achieve sustained growth," Pazarbasioglu said.
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BJP dreaming to win polls with money power: West Bengal BJP MLA after bypoll loss
Kolkata, Nov 23: As the ruling Trinamool Congress swept the by-elections in six assembly seats in West Bengal, Kurseong's party MLA Bishnu Prasad Sharma attacked the state leadership, saying the party dreams of winning polls with money power and that it sidelines legislators and gives "unnecessary importance and responsibilities" to MPs.
The TMC retained five of the six seats it had previously won during the 2021 polls, while wresting the key Madarihat seat from the saffron camp in north Bengal’s Alipurduar district.
In a Facebook post, Sharma alleged, "The BJP runs a membership drive in West Bengal over the phone from a Kolkata office, while party leaders turn a blind eye to factionalism within the party. The party sidelines MLAs and gives unnecessary importance and responsibilities to MPs. It dreams of winning elections relying on money power. Despite having no shortage of political issues in the state, it centers its politics solely around religion."
"The BJP accuses opponents of corruption while carrying Adani and Ambani on its shoulders. It tries to undermine the rights of the indigenous population by luring Bangladeshi Hindus with promises of CAA. It halts MGNREGA funds and indulges in such tactics, hoping to win elections in the state," he alleged.
On the other hand, the BJP MLA lauded TMC saying, that the ruling party in the state, armed with 26 different "pro-poor schemes" such as Kanyashree Prakalpa, Gitanjali Housing Scheme, Krishak Bandhu Scheme, Nijo Griha Nijo Bhumi, Rupashree Prakalpa, Shishu Sathi Scheme, and Student Credit Card, quietly works at the grassroots level.
"Now, you decide who will win the elections. I have never seen a culture of self-criticism within the BJP; otherwise, this outcome wouldn't have occurred," he added.
Since the 2021 assembly elections, the TMC has won every by-election, except the Sagardighi bypoll in March 2023, which was won by a Congress candidate who later switched to the TMC.
With this victory, TMC's tally in the 294-member state assembly rose to 216, further consolidating its position. The BJP's tally, on the other hand, dropped to 69, from 77 in 2021.
