Industrial production shrinks by 1.1 pc in August; poorest performance in 7 years
New Delhi, Oct 11: Signs of slowdown became more pronounced as the government data on Friday revealed factory output shrank by 1.1 per cent in August, recording the poorest performance in seven years due to a sharp decline in production of capital goods and consumer durable.
Industrial production growth for the first time in more than two years has treaded into negative territory.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had shown a growth of 4.8 per cent in August 2018. The previous low in IIP was (-) 1.7 per cent in November 2012.
The manufacturing sector, which contributes over 77 per cent to the IIP, contracted by 1.2 per cent, the lowest in five years, as against a growth of 5.2 per cent in the year-ago month, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
The previous low in the manufacturing segment was recorded at (-) 1.8 per cent in October 2014.
The data revealed that electricity generation growth too was in negative at (-) 0.9 per cent as against an expansion of 7.6 per cent in the year-ago month while the mining sector growth was flat at 0.1 per cent.
Earlier this month, the RBI revised downwards its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.1 per cent from the previous estimate of 6.9 per cent after the first-quarter economic growth slipped to over six-year low of 5 per cent.
Providing further details of the IIP, the NSO data showed the worst performance came from the capital goods segment as its output shrank by over 21 per cent as against an expansion of 10.3 per cent in August last year.
Consumer durables output too declined by 9.1 per cent in August 2019 as against 5.5 per cent growth in the same month of 2018.
Another poor performing segment was infrastructure/ construction goods. It showed a decline of 4.5 per cent in August 2019 as against a growth of 8 per cent in the corresponding month of last year.
'Intermediate goods' sector, however, showed a healthy growth of 7 per cent, up from 2.9 per cent in the year-ago month. Consumer non-durables segment posted an expansion of 4.1 per cent in August. This compares with 6.5 per cent expansion in August 2018.
In terms of industries, 15 out of the 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown negative growth during August 2019 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.
Commenting on the IIP numbers, K Joseph Thomas, Head Research, Emkay Wealth Management said the data amply reflects the underlying weakness in manufacturing and industrial activity which needs to be addressed without much loss of time for economic recovery.
Aditi Nayar, Vice President, Principal Economist there is a growing likelihood that the GDP growth may not meaningfully accelerate in the second quarter of the current fiscal from the multi-quarter low 5 per cent recorded in April-June quarter, despite a favourable base effect.
The extent of pickup in consumption in the festive months and crop production in the rabi season will signal whether a material turnaround in demand and economic growth are in the offing, she said.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed its 2019-20 GDP growth forecast for India to 5.8 per cent from 6.2 per cent earlier, saying the economy was experiencing a pronounced slowdown.
Meanwhile, the NSO revised upwards the IIP growth for July to 4.6 per cent from the earlier estimate of 4.3 per cent.
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TN seeks duty-free cotton imports to support textile sector: CM Vijay writes to PM
Chennai (PTI): Tamil Nadu Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay on Thursday urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to remove the import duty on cotton.
In his first letter to Modi after taking over as chief minister of the state, he said Tamil Nadu is the country’s largest textile and apparel exporting state.
Lakhs of people are dependent on this sector for both direct and indirect employment, especially women from rural and semi-urban backgrounds, Vijay pointed out.
Stating that the industry is facing a severe crisis due to an increase in cotton prices and consequently yarn prices, he said, “I understand this is caused primarily due to a shortage in cotton production and increased trading activity in the country.”
Pointing out that the price of cotton has increased from Rs 54,700 to Rs 67,700 per candy—an increase of 25 per cent over the last two months—while yarn prices have increased from Rs 301 to Rs 330 per kg, he said, “In this situation, the continued supply of raw material can be ensured only through imports.”
However, there is an import duty of 11 per cent on cotton, he said, adding that in such a situation, permitting duty-free cotton imports will help the industry meet increasing export commitments and remain globally competitive.
Vijay said that after agriculture, the textile and apparel sector is one of the largest employment-generating sectors.
“There is a significant responsibility on the government to safeguard the employment of lakhs of people and ensure the sustainability of the textile value chain," he said.
“Hence, I request your intervention to remove the import duty on cotton from the existing 11 per cent to 0 per cent to ensure the availability of raw material. This measure will enable the textile and apparel industry to remain globally competitive, enhance exports, and protect jobs,” he added.
