Moody's cuts India growth forecast for 2021 to 9.6%
New Delhi: Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday slashed India's growth projection to 9.6 per cent for 2021 calendar year, from its earlier estimate of 13.9 per cent, and said faster vaccination progress will be paramount in restricting economic losses to June quarter.
In its report titled 'Macroeconomics India: Economic shocks from second COVID wave will not be as severe as last year's', Moody's said high-frequency economic indicators show that the second wave of COVID-19 infections hit India's economy in April and May. With states now easing restrictions, economic activity in May is likely to signify the trough.
"The virus resurgence adds uncertainty to India's growth forecast for 2021; however, it is likely that the economic damage will remain restricted to the April-June quarter. We currently expect India's real GDP to grow at 9.6 per cent in 2021 and 7 per cent in 2022," Moody's said.
Earlier this month, Moody's had projected India to clock a 9.3 per cent growth in the current fiscal ending March 2022, but a severe second COVID wave has increased risks to India's credit profile and rated entities.
Indian economy contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21 as the country battled the first wave of COVID, as against a 4 per cent growth in 2019-20.
Stating that stringent lockdowns in economically significant states will mar April-June quarter economic activity, Moody's said the 10 states that have been hardest hit by the second wave collectively account for more than 60 per cent of the pre-pandemic level of India's GDP.
Four states - Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka - contributed the largest shares among all states in financial year 2019-20.
Moody's said faster vaccination progress will be paramount in restricting economic losses to the current quarter. As of the third week in June, only about 16 per cent of the population had received one vaccine dose; of those, only about 3.6 per cent had been fully vaccinated.
"Mobility and economic activity will likely accelerate in the second half of the year as the pace of vaccinations pick up. The government recently announced a strategy to centralise vaccine procurement in order to boost vaccinations, which if successful, will support the economic recovery," it added.
Moody's expects the overall hit to India's economy to be softer than that during the first wave last year. However, the pace of recovery will be determined by access to and delivery of vaccines, and the strength of the recovery in private consumption, which could be hampered by the deterioration of balance sheets of low- and middle-income households from job, income and wealth losses.
India's second wave peaked in the beginning of May; since then, new cases and daily deaths have continued to fall, and the number of people who have recovered from the virus has exceeded the number of new infections since mid-May.
India's total tally of COVID-19 cases crossed the three-crore mark with 50,848 new cases reported in 24 hours. The death toll climbed to 3,90,660 with 1,358 fresh fatalities.
"We assess the overall economic effect of the second wave to be softer than that during the first wave of the pandemic last year, although delivery of and access to vaccines will determine the durability of the recovery," Moody's added.
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Govt employees mandated to complete competency-linked courses: Centre in Rajya Sabha
New Delhi (PTI): All central government employees have been mandated to complete competency-linked courses relevant to their role or level on a dedicated online platform annually, which will reflect in their annual performance appraisal reports, the Rajya Sabha was informed on Thursday.
The government has adopted a competency-based capacity building approach, focusing on role-based learning, continuous skill development, and alignment of training with role requirements, Union Minister of State for Personnel Jitendra Singh said in a written reply.
"The Department of Personnel and Training (DoPT) has mandated all central government employees and officers of the all-India services to complete competency-linked courses mapped to their role/level and comprehensive assessments prescribed by their ministries/ departments/organisations (MDOs) or cadre controlling authorities (CCAs) on iGOT (integrated government online training) portal annually, which is to be also reflected in their annual performance appraisal reports (APARs)," he said.
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The minister was responding to a query about the government's plans to incorporate competency-based scores for promotion and appraisal processes of its employees.
A framework of roles, activities and competencies (FRAC) aims to align all positions in government with clearly defined roles, activities, and required competencies (behavioural, functional, and domain), Singh added.
In a separate reply, the minister said that details of the engagement of consultants are maintained by respective ministries and departments.
The General Financial Rules (GFR), 2017, administered by the Department of Expenditure, Ministry of Finance, provides for the fundamental principles applicable to all ministries or departments concerning the engagement of consultants and external professionals or consultancy firms for specific jobs, he said.
"As informed by the Department of Expenditure, data regarding engagement of consultants is maintained by respective ministries and departments," Singh said.
The minister was asked the year-wise number of consultants engaged by all the central ministries and departments during the last five years.
