Imagine waking up one morning and finding that the price of wheat flour, rice, and milk has doubled overnight. Your grocery bag costs twice as much. Farmers in your village cannot afford fertiliser. The government is scrambling. This is not a nightmare. This is exactly what the Iran war could trigger — and it starts with something most of us never think about: natural gas.

How Does Gas Connect to Your Food?

There is a process called the Haber-Bosch process — a scientific method that mixes nitrogen from air with hydrogen from natural gas to create ammonia. Ammonia is then turned into urea, which is the fertiliser that farmers spray on wheat, rice, and maize fields. Simply put — no natural gas, no fertiliser. No fertiliser, no food.

Around 80% of the cost of making fertiliser comes from natural gas. So when gas supply gets disrupted even for a few weeks, fertiliser factories slow down or completely shut. Farmers get less fertiliser. Crops grow weaker. Harvests fall. And your plate gets emptier.

The Strait of Hormuz — A Small Passage, Giant Problem

There is a narrow sea passage called the Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. Nearly 20% of the world's LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) and 30% of global fertiliser exports pass through this tiny corridor every single day.

Major countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE export fertilisers — urea and ammonia — through this route to nations across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Now, with Iran's military threatening this passage, ships are scared to pass. Fertiliser is stuck inside the Persian Gulf. The world outside is waiting — and waiting costs lives.

Worst Timing in Farming History

This war has arrived at the worst possible moment for global agriculture. Right now, farmers across the Northern Hemisphere — in USA, Canada, Europe, China, India, Russia — are preparing for the spring planting season. This is the peak time when demand for nitrogen fertiliser is at its absolute highest.

Unlike oil, which many countries store in emergency reserves, no country in the world has a strategic fertiliser reserve. If shipments are delayed even by four to six weeks, farmers will use less fertiliser and the autumn harvest will permanently fall. You cannot redo a planting season. Once that window closes, it is gone.

Your Chicken, Milk and Eggs Are Also at Risk

Many people think a food crisis only affects vegetarians. That is wrong. When fertiliser shortages reduce grain production, the price of animal feed — corn and soybean — shoots up. Livestock farmers operate on very thin profits. When feed prices rise sharply, the cost of chicken, pork, beef, milk, and eggs rises with it. A fertiliser shortage can become a full dairy and meat crisis within just a few months.

India's Mungaru Season Is in Serious Danger

For India, this situation is deeply personal — and for Karnataka and South India, it hits even closer to home. India sources nearly 60% of its total LNG imports from Middle East countries — with Qatar alone supplying over 42% and UAE adding another 11%. This makes India the most Middle East-dependent LNG buyer in the entire world.

If India's fertiliser plants cannot get affordable natural gas, domestic urea production will fall sharply — exactly before the Mungaru planting season. Mungaru is what Karnataka and South Indian farmers lovingly call the Kharif (Mungaru) season — the monsoon-driven planting window arriving around June, when farmers sow rice, ragi, sugarcane, and maize riding the southwest rains. This single season produces over half of India's total food grain. Miss this window, and there is no second chance until next year.

The government will be forced to spend thousands of crores extra on fertiliser subsidies. Every family — from a rice farmer in Mandya to a vegetable buyer in Bengaluru — will feel this burden.

Food in Cold Storage Is Also at Risk

Even food that is grown successfully may not reach your kitchen. Our food system runs on a massive cold chain — refrigerated trucks, frozen warehouses, temperature-controlled ships. As LNG prices surge, running these refrigeration systems becomes extremely expensive. More food spoils before reaching the market. Less supply means higher prices.

Countries Will Hoard, the Poor Will Starve

When prices rise and harvests fall, countries panic and stop food exports to protect themselves — exactly as happened during the 2022 Ukraine war. Wheat, rice, and sugar exports get banned overnight. Nations that depend on food imports — especially in Africa and South Asia — face severe shortages, hunger, and social unrest.

One war. One strait. One gas shortage. And the entire world goes hungry.

(Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany.)

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views, policies, or position of the publication, its editors, or its management. The publication is not responsible for the accuracy of any information, statements, or opinions presented in this piece.

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Puducherry (PTI): Senior Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge on Saturday said the NDA "is an opportunist alliance that thrives on corruption and the looting of public assets".

Addressing a rally of the INDIA bloc in Puducherry, the Congress president said Prime Minister Narendra Modi "had done nothing" for the union territory’s development.

He urged voters to back the INDIA bloc in the April 9 Assembly polls, calling it "an opportunity for the people to fight against divisive forces led by the BJP and RSS, which are destroying unity, harmony, and the progressive spirit of Puducherry."

Kharge also criticised the BJP for neglecting smaller states like Puducherry and made a strong case for granting it statehood, promising, "Congress will secure statehood—this is a guarantee we give to the people here".

He alleged that under the current AINRC-BJP coalition, Puducherry is "riddled with corruption and a 30 per cent commission system," with the NDA government exploiting the union territory, despite it being "one of the country’s most beautiful places".

He expressed concern over "misuse of funds and stalled development", alleging corruption had "seeped into every sector".

Kharge claimed that despite Prime Minister Modi’s zero-tolerance stance on corruption, "everything in practice is being handed to one person, Adani—from land to skies."

He added that the NDA was "exploiting land, temple lands, and public property."

The Congress leader also criticised the AINRC-BJP rule for granting permits for around 450 liquor shops and restaurants over the last five years, claiming, "Instead of providing clean water, the government has been giving liquor to the people."

Kharge compared the current situation with the previous Congress rule, highlighting development across sectors, particularly healthcare. "Hospitals were established here to take care of the health of the people," he said.

Among his promises, Kharge pledged "gold for mangala sutra" for women if Congress is elected, along with free education from primary school to research level.

He reiterated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s promises to Puducherry had not materialised and renewed his call for full statehood, citing the lack of powers as a "hindrance" to the elected government.

He recalled that during the previous Congress rule, then Chief Minister V Narayanasamy, who was also present, faced interference from then Lt Governor Kiran Bedi.

Kharge said Congress has always stood with the people and would continue to improve their lives through developmental programmes, as it had during earlier administrations.

The meeting was presided over by Puducherry PCC president V Vaithilingam, and among the speakers was S P Sivakumar of the DMK.