Bihar survey: Mahagathbandhan gets 46% Dalit support, NDA at 32%
Patna, July 23: A ground-breaking survey jointly conducted by the National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi Organisations (NACDAOR) and The Convergent Media (TCM) has offered a rare, in-depth look into the political mood and social concerns of Bihar’s Dalit communities. What makes this initiative unique is that it was entirely led by Dalit activists themselves, making it the largest participatory survey of its kind ever conducted in the state.
The survey covered 18,581 respondents across 49 Assembly constituencies, including 11 reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC), and spanned six major regions Kosi, Mithilanchal, Seemanchal, Bhojpur, Champaran, and Magadh-Patliputra. A team of 98 Dalit youth, trained through four residential workshops in Patna, Begusarai, and Darbhanga, carried out the fieldwork over 25 days between June 10 and July 4, 2025.
Releasing the findings at a press conference, NACDAOR Chairman Ashok Bharti and TCM directors Prem Kumar and Ranjan Kumar said this was not just a survey but a model of participatory research. “This survey is by Dalits, for Dalits. It goes beyond data collection—it's about ownership of narratives and political self-awareness,” they said.
The results indicate that the Mahagathbandhan, the alliance led by RJD and Congress, has emerged as the leading political choice among Dalit communities, securing 46.13% support compared to the NDA's 31.93%. The alliance’s presence is particularly strong in the Kosi and Bhojpur regions. In contrast, NDA finds its stronghold in Seemanchal.
One of the most telling findings of the survey is the decline in support for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, especially among Mahadalits. Communities like the Dusadhs have shown only 18.79% support for him, and other Mahadalit sub-castes report backing ranging between 20% and 33%. This reflects a weakening connect between the JD(U) and the very communities it once claimed to empower.
When asked about individual leaders, Tejashwi Yadav emerged as the most popular among Dalit respondents with 28.83% support, closely followed by Chirag Paswan at 25.88%. Nitish Kumar trailed behind with 22.80%, suggesting that generational change and new voices are gaining ground within the Dalit political imagination.
Unemployment has clearly emerged as the top concern for Dalit communities in Bihar. More than 58% of the respondents identified it as their primary issue, with even higher figures in economically weaker regions like Kosi (80.5%) and Bhojpur (61.4%). Other concerns include poor education and healthcare facilities, and corruption.
In terms of national leaders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains the most popular with 47.5% support, but he is closely followed by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi at 40.3%, a notable number considering the Congress’s limited organisational strength in Bihar. Respondents also gave significant credit to both Rahul Gandhi (30.81%) and Tejashwi Yadav (27.57%) for pushing the caste census agenda, while only 33.15% credited Modi.
Late Dalit icon Ram Vilas Paswan continues to hold a strong emotional connection among the community, with 52.35% describing him as the most influential Dalit leader. His influence is particularly high among Dusadhs and smaller sub-castes. Babu Jagjivan Ram also continues to inspire, especially among Ravidas and Chamar communities.
The survey paints a grim picture of the public mood regarding the current state government. Nearly half of the respondents—48.43%—gave the Nitish Kumar-led government a negative rating, especially in Bhojpur and Kosi. Communities like Mehtar, Hadi, Valmiki and Pasi showed relatively more favourable responses, but discontent remains high overall.
Distrust in institutions was another theme that emerged from the responses. Only 51.22% of Dalits surveyed said they trusted the Election Commission, while over 27% felt it was not functioning impartially. A significant 71.56% of respondents said they feared being removed from voter lists, with the fear being highest among Ravidas, Pasis and Dalits in Seemanchal and Kosi regions.
There was also an overwhelming demand for expanding the scope of reservation, with 82.89% supporting reservation beyond the current limits.
Interestingly, the survey challenges the stereotype that Dalits vote only on caste lines. While caste remains a factor, 44.66% of respondents said they vote based on individual candidates, 32.51% based on party, and only 10.09% cited caste as the primary factor. This suggests that the Dalit electorate in Bihar is increasingly making choices based on issues, leadership, and performance.
The survey included all 23 Dalit sub-castes in Bihar and was especially representative of the state’s three largest Dalit groups—Dusadh (31%), Ravidas (30.7%), and Musahar (17.1%). Together, these three communities represent nearly 98% of Bihar’s Dalit population.
The findings have significant implications for upcoming elections in Bihar and highlight a shift in the state's Dalit politics from identity-based mobilisation to issue-driven choices. They also reflect a growing demand for representation, dignity, and structural change within marginalised communities.
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Bengal elections: Bhangar tense during polling, ISF claims voters, agents threatened
Kolkata (PTI): Tension gripped South 24 Parganas' Bhangar and its adjoining areas during the second phase of polling in West Bengal on Wednesday, with the Indian Secular Front (ISF) accusing TMC of trying to intimidate polling agents and influence voters.
NIA officials have been deployed in at least seven Assembly seats of West Bengal, where the second phase of polling is underway on Wednesday, after the Election Commission asked the federal probe agency to ensure bombs are not used to disrupt polling.
On April 26, police recovered crude bombs from the house of a person, allegedly a TMC worker, in Bhangar. Later, on a directive by the Union Home Ministry, the NIA registered a case to probe the recovery of 79 crude bombs in the state.
Trouble was reported from several pockets of Bhangar and Canning Purba constituency since morning, prompting heavy deployment of central forces, state police and NIA teams in sensitive areas.
At Hedia in Canning Purba constituency, the ISF alleged that one of its polling agents received death threats from TMC supporters.
ISF candidate Arabul Islam rushed to the spot after receiving the complaint and accused the administration of failing to ensure a fair election.
"Votes are being looted in Canning Purba. Our agents in booths are being driven out of several booths after snatching their cards and documents," he alleged.
Since morning, Islam was seen visiting booths and asking security personnel to clear gatherings within 100 metres of polling stations, while also assisting ISF polling agents in entering booths.
ISF chairman and Bhangar MLA Naushad Siddiqui also alleged that party workers and agents were being intimidated by ruling party supporters, but claimed that the overall atmosphere in Bhangar was comparatively peaceful compared to previous elections.
The fresh allegations and tension came a day after several areas of Bhangar, including Kochpukur and Joypur under Bhangar-II block, witnessed clashes between TMC and ISF supporters.
ISF supporters alleged that workers of the ruling party roamed through neighbourhoods on Tuesday night and threatened locals. When ISF workers protested, clashes broke out, leaving at least four of their compatriots, including a woman, injured.
Later, Siddiqui said, "The people of Bhangar are finally exercising their democratic rights. Earlier, bombs, bullets and pistols decided elections here. This time, people are choosing ballots and voting with a smile."
He alleged that "political dealers" and local goons loyal to TMC leader and Bhangar candidate Saukat Molla were trying to provoke ISF workers and create tension in certain areas.
"Agents are being threatened and prevented from functioning freely. We repeatedly informed the administration, but police are acting in favour of the ruling party and not cooperating," Siddiqui alleged.
Later in the day, the ISF leader also claimed that voters were prevented from exercising their franchise freely during the 2023 panchayat polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, the situation has improved this time, he said.
The TMC denied the allegations and accused the ISF of trying to create unrest in the constituency to influence polling.
Security was significantly tightened in Bhangar, where, apart from state police and central forces, a special team of the National Investigation Agency (NIA) was also deployed to monitor sensitive pockets.
