Earthquake-predicting tool driven by AI shows 70 per cent accuracy, new research reveals
New Delhi (PTI): An AI-driven tool was 70 per cent accurate in predicting earthquakes a week before they happened during a seven-month trial in China, scientists report.
The outcome was a weekly forecast in which the AI successfully predicted 14 earthquakes within about 200 miles, or 320 kilometres, of where it estimated they would happen and at almost exactly the calculated strength, the researchers at The University of Texas (UT) at Austin, US, said.
The AI-tool, however, missed one earthquake and gave eight false warnings, they reported.
The AI was trained to detect statistical bumps in real-time seismic data that researchers had paired with previous earthquakes, they said, adding that the method follows a relatively simple machine learning approach. Their study is published in the journal Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.
The AI was given a set of statistical features based on the team's knowledge of earthquake physics, then told to train itself on a five-year database of seismic recordings.
Once trained, the AI gave its forecast by listening for signs of incoming earthquakes among the background rumblings in the Earth, the researchers said in their study.
While it is not yet known if the same approach will work at other locations, but the researchers are confident that in places with robust seismic tracking networks such as California, Italy, Japan, Greece, Turkey and Texas, the AI could improve its success rate and narrow its predictions to within a few tens of miles.
The findings of this study, however, are a milestone in research for AI-driven earthquake forecasting, the researchers said.
"Predicting earthquakes is the holy grail," said Sergey Fomel, a professor in UT's Bureau of Economic Geology and a member of the research team. "We're not yet close to making predictions for anywhere in the world, but what we achieved tells us that what we thought was an impossible problem is solvable in principle."
"You don't see earthquakes coming," said Alexandros Savvaidis, a senior research scientist who leads the bureau's Texas Seismological Network Program (TexNet) - the state's seismic network.
"It's a matter of milliseconds, and the only thing you can control is how prepared you are. Even with 70 per cent, that's a huge result and could help minimise economic and human losses and has the potential to dramatically improve earthquake preparedness worldwide," said Savvaidis.
The trial was part of an international competition held in China in which the UT-developed AI came first out of 600 other designs. UT's entry was led by bureau seismologist and the AI's lead developer, Yangkang Chen.
"Our future goal is to combine both physics and data-driven methods to give us something generalised, like chatGPT, that we can apply to anywhere in the world," said Chen.
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Real Madrid fines Valverde and Tchouaméni half a million euros each for altercation
Barcelona (AP): Real Madrid slapped players Federico Valverde and Aurélien Tchouaméni with half-a-million-euro ($588,000) fines on Friday for their altercation during practice.
The massive fines came a day after the midfielders tussled when the team trained. Valverde said in a post on social media on Thursday that no punches were thrown. But Valverde knocked his head on a table and he suffered a small cut that required a brief hospital visit.
On social media, Valverde initially called it a “meaningless fight” with a teammate and said “everything has been blown out of proportion."
His employers, however, considered it a significant enough breach of team discipline to nail both Valverde and Tchouaméni with fines that bite even the bank account of a top soccer player. The half-a-million euro penalties reflect the reputational damage the club was enduring in a chaotic end to a disappointing season.
In a statement, the 15-time European champion said its disciplinary action was concluded after both players expressed to the club “their complete remorse for what happened and apologized to one another.”
Madrid added they also apologized to their teammates, the coaching staff and club supporters, as well as showing their willingness to accept whatever disciplinary action the club deemed “opportune.”
Tchouaméni was back training with Madrid on Friday, two days before they play at Barcelona in a clasico. Madrid has to win otherwise Barcelona will be crowned La Liga champion.
After being notified of the fine, he posted a public apology to the club and its fans on social media.
“What happened this week in training is unacceptable,” Tchouaméni wrote. "I say this while thinking about the example we are expected to set for young people, whether in football or at school.
“Above all, I am sorry for the image we projected of the club.”
Valverde was not at practice due to the head knock.
Both players are set to play in the World Cup next month, with Tchouaméni playing for France and Valverde for Uruguay.
Chaotic end to a poor season
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The run-in between the players, who for seasons have played side by side in Madrid's midfield, came after they argued this week in previous training sessions. But tempers boiled over on Thursday. Spanish media was rife with reports that the players previously disagreed over the club's decision to let coach Xabi Alonso go after just months on the job.
It was not the only altercation involving Madrid players during training this week. Álvaro Carreras confirmed he was in a “minor” incident with a teammate. Spanish media said he and fellow defender Antonio Rüdiger got into a scuffle.
Álvaro Arbeloa, the coach who was promoted from Madrid's reserve team when Alonso was fired in January, will face tough questions on what went wrong inside the changing room when he gives a press conference on Saturday ahead of the clasico at Camp Nou.
Madrid is facing a second consecutive campaign without a major trophy amid rumors in the Spanish media that club president Florentino Pérez is considering bringing back Jose Mourinho to straighten out his underperforming team.
