Exit polls loss-making venture: Axis My India chief
New Delhi, Jun 23: Exit polls is a loss-making business and the only profit a pollster earns is visibility, Axis My India chief Pradeep Gupta has said.
Gupta was considered to be the poster boy of exit polls till June 4, when the Lok Sabha poll results dealt a hammer blow to the reputation of pollsters after their predictions proved to be wide off the mark.
"Exit polls are a loss-making venture because no media house will pay as much money as that invested on the ground ... the only profit that we make in exit polls is that we get visibility which we do not get while doing market research for corporate clients," he said.
In an interaction with PTI editors at the agency's headquarters, Gupta said 70 per cent of his clientele is corporate clients and that is where the main revenue comes from.
Gupta said, "Besides the other investments we make on ground ... every surveyor gets Rs 500 for a hitting the bull's eye (for an accurate prediction) and we covered 3,605 assembly constituencies (in this election). There are other incentives too depending upon the accuracy of prediction."
"So, if all would have gone right, this money would have gone but its (company's) brand equity would have been high ... though it seems as a loss monetarily but its profit in terms of visibility," he said.
Gupta said his company will go for a stock market listing once its other businesses, which are currently in the pipeline, turn profitable.
Born in Waraseoni, a village in Madhya Pradesh's Balaghat, Gupta after working with the Thomson Press in Delhi moved to Mumbai in 1993 to work with an advertising agency.
"I was the first to use utility bills for advertising and the idea proved to be very profitable back then," Gupta, 55, said.
He later went to the Harvard Business School and after returning to India, he began his career as pollster in 2013. Out of 65 elections, Gupta said, he accurately predicted 60.
Gupta, became the centre of a controversy when the opposition alleged that he deliberately predicted a clean sweep for the BJP to manipulate the stock market, which hit a record high after the exit polls were announced and crashed on the day of counting, June 4.
For the 2024 elections, Axis My India predicted 361-401 seats for the BJP-led alliance and 131-166 seats for the opposition INDIA bloc in the 543-member Lok Sabha.
"Out of 64 crore voters, we spoke to 5.82 lakh voters, which is a representational sample size. We covered 3,607 assembly constituencies, over 22,000 villages. Our on-ground interviews are monitored by a team, there is no possibility of any manipulation or bias," he said.
Asked about whether Axis My India will go for a stock market listing as being planned earlier, Gupta said," We are working on few products which are ready to be rolled out. Once they are successful, we will go for a stock market listing".
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2nd phase of Bengal poll: 39.97 per cent polling till 11 am amid sporadic violence
Kolkata (PTI): Nearly 40 per cent of the 3.21 crore electors voted till 11 am of the second phase of polling in West Bengal amid sporadic violence, while tension gripped the Bhabanipur seat briefly as Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Suvendu Adhikari took swipes at one another in the same booth area.
Voters queued up from 7 am outside booths in Kolkata, Howrah, Hooghly, Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas and Purba Bardhaman districts, which form Bengal's electoral and political core.
Of the total electorate eligible to vote in this phase, 1.57 crore are women, and 792 are third-gender.
Till 11 am, West Bengal recorded 39.97 per cent polling with Purba Bardhaman registering the highest turnout at 44.50 per cent, followed by Hooghly at 43.12 per cent and Nadia at 40.34 per cent.
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Howrah recorded 39.45 per cent polling, while North 24 Parganas registered 38.43 per cent. Kolkata North and Kolkata South recorded 38.39 per cent and 36.78 per cent turnout, respectively.
South 24 Parganas, a politically crucial district witnessing several high-profile contests, recorded 37.9 per cent voting.
The first phase of polls in 152 Assembly seats of West Bengal on April 23 also recorded more than 41 per cent polling till 11 am.
"Polling is underway peacefully, barring some minor incidents in certain areas. We have sought reports from the officials concerned," a poll panel official said.
The early-morning convergence of Banerjee and Adhikari at the same booth area in Chakraberia turned Bhabanipur -- the chief minister's electoral bastion -- into the centrepiece of the day, reinforcing the symbolic weight of their prestige battle seen as a rematch of Nandigram, where the BJP leader had defeated her in 2021.
Banerjee was already seated outside the booth after receiving complaints of alleged intimidation of local TMC leaders when Adhikari arrived there amid heavy deployment of central forces.
Stepping out of his car, Adhikari declared, "I will not allow any hooliganism", while Banerjee accused the BJP of trying to "rig" the election using central forces, police observers and election officials.
"BJP wants to rig this election. Polls in Bengal are usually peaceful. Is there goonda raj here?" Banerjee told reporters, alleging CRPF personnel had visited the homes of TMC leaders late Tuesday night and unleashed terror in the area.
She alleged that election observers were acting at the BJP's behest and claimed TMC workers were being selectively targeted across districts.
Adhikari dismissed the charges as signs of "frustration", claiming Banerjee had realised that "not a single vote" was coming her way.
Banerjee, who usually steps out of her Kalighat residence late in the day to cast her vote at Mitra Institution School, broke convention and hit the ground before 8 am, moving through Chetla, Padmapukur and Chakraberia, underlining the stakes attached to Bhabanipur and the wider battle for south Bengal.
Reports of violence, vandalism and tension surfaced from several districts.
In Nadia district's Chapra, a BJP polling agent was allegedly assaulted inside a booth during a mock poll. The BJP accused TMC supporters of attacking its agent, while the ruling party denied the charge. In Shantipur, a BJP camp office was found vandalised.
In South 24 Pargana's Bhangar, the ISF alleged that its polling agents were prevented from entering booths.
Howrah's Bally constituency saw tension at a booth in Liluah after an EVM malfunction delayed voting, prompting central forces to lathi-charge agitated voters. Two people were arrested in the matter.
Police and RAF personnel were also seen chasing away crowds near a booth in Amdanga following complaints of unlawful gathering by bike-borne supporters.
In Panihati, BJP candidate Ratna Debnath, the mother of the RG Kar victim, faced protests and her car was allegedly stopped by TMC workers, while in Jagaddal, the recovery of a firearm near a polling booth triggered tension before police and central forces restored order.
BJP candidate from Basanti assembly constituency in South 24 Parganas, Bikash Sardar, on Wednesday, alleged that "200-250 TMC goons" attacked his car and assaulted his driver when he was visiting polling booths in the constituency.
The TMC did not immediately respond to the allegations.
Unlike the first phase, where the BJP sought to defend its north Bengal gains, the final round has shifted the battle squarely to the TMC's strongest belt.
In 2021, the ruling party had won 123 of these 142 seats, leaving just 18 for the BJP and one for the ISF. For the BJP, breaching this southern fortress remains critical if it hopes to mount a serious challenge for power in the state.
