GDP growth expected to strongly rebound to 6-6.5 pc in FY'21: Economic Survey
New Delhi: India's economic growth is expected to "strongly rebound" to 6-6.5 per cent in 2020-21 from 5 per cent estimated in the current fiscal, the Economic Survey said on Friday, adding that the government with a strong mandate has the capacity to expedite reforms.
The Economic Survey 2019-20 tabled in Parliament said there are tentative signs of bottoming out of slowdown in manufacturing activity and global trade, which will have a positive impact on growth in the next fiscal.
The government's thrust on affordable housing, Make in India, reduction in corporate tax rate, and improvement in ease of doing business, besides others factors, will help in boosting economic growth, it said.
However, it has also cautioned that continued global trade problems, escalation in US-Iran geopolitical tensions, and weak economic recovery in advanced economies are the downside risk which have the potential to drag down the growth.
"On a net assessment, it appears that the upside risks should prevail, particularly when the government, with a strong mandate, has the capacity to deliver expeditiously on reforms.
"GDP growth of India should strongly rebound in 2020-21 and more so on a low statistical base of 5 per cent growth in 2019-20," said the survey tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
On a net assessment of both the downside/upside risks, it said "India's GDP growth is expected to grow in the range of 6 to 6.5 per cent in 2020-21."
On 2019-20 GDP, it said the estimate of 5 per cent growth suggests an uptick in expansion in the second half of 2019-20.
The survey also stresses that deceleration in GDP growth can be understood within the framework of a slowing cycle of growth. The financial sector has acted as a drag on the real sector.
The survey said that the uptick in second half of 2019-20 would be mainly due to 10 positive factors like picking up of Nifty India Consumption Index for the first time this year, an upbeat secondary market, higher FDI flows, build-up of demand pressure, positive outlook for rural consumption, rebound of industrial activity, steady improvement in manufacturing, growth in merchandise exports, higher build-up of foreign exchange reserves and positive growth rate of GST revenue collection.
The document also emphasised that merger of public sector banks may increase the financial strength of the merged entities, lower the risk aversion and result in lowering of lending rates.
Further, as the implementation of GST further settles down, the increased unification of the domestic market may reduce business costs and facilitate fresh investment.
Reforms in land and labour market may further reduce business costs, said the survey, presented a day before Sitharaman's Union Budget 2020-21.
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Road crash in UP leaves 10 dead
Lakhimpur Kheri (UP) (PTI): Ten people were killed when a van collided head-on with a truck on the Sisaiya-Lakhimpur national highway on Monday, police said.
The van was going to Sisaiya from Lakhimpur when the accident took place between Unchgaon and Bharehta villages.
Circle Officer of Dhaurahra, Shamsher Bahadur Singh, said all nine passengers travelling in the van and the driver were killed.
District Magistrate of Lakhimpur Kheri Anjani Kumar Singh told reporters that the van collided with a truck coming from the opposite direction, leading to nine casualties on the spot, while one succumbed to injuries at the district hospital.
Circle Officer, Dhaurahra, Shamsher Bahadur Singh told PTI, "Efforts are on to establish the identity of other deceased persons."
The seven of the deceased have been identified as Jaideep Singh (25), Pawan (23), Sohan (21), Ram Goyal (42), Sahajram (35), Pappu (18), all residents of Bahraich district and Adnan Khan (15), a resident of Lakhimpur Kheri district, police said.
Condoling the loss of lives in the accident, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in a post on X, said, "The loss of life in the unfortunate road accident in Lakhimpur Kheri district is deeply distressing and heart-wrenching. My condolences are with the bereaved families."
"I have directed the local administration to provide prompt and adequate assistance to the injured and the victims. I pray to Lord Shri Ram to grant the departed souls a place at His divine feet and to bestow a speedy recovery upon the injured," Adityanath said on X.
Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya and Brajesh Pathak too condoled the loss of lives in the accident.
"The loss of lives resulting from the road accident in Lakhimpur Kheri district is deeply tragic and heart-wrenching. My deepest condolences go out to the bereaved families," Maurya said.
