India could face productivity loss equivalent to 34 million jobs in 2030 due to global warming: UN
United Nations: India is projected to lose 5.8 per cent of working hours in 2030, a productivity loss equivalent to 34 million full-time jobs, due to global warming, particularly impacting agriculture and construction sectors, a report by the UN labour agency said.
The International Labour Organization (ILO) released its report 'Working on a Warmer Planet - The Impact of Heat Stress on Labour Productivity and Decent Work' which said that by 2030, the equivalent of more than two per cent of total working hours worldwide is projected to be lost every year, either because it is too hot to work or because workers have to work at a slower pace.
"Projections based on a global temperature rise of 1.5 C by the end of the twenty-first century, and also on labour force trends, suggest that, in 2030, 2.2 per cent of total working hours worldwide will be lost to high temperatures - a productivity loss equivalent to 80 million full-time job," the report said.
It said that the accumulated global financial loss due to heat stress is expected to reach USD 2,400 billion by 2030.
"If nothing is done now to mitigate climate change, these costs will be much higher as global temperatures increase even further towards the end of the century," the report said.
Countries in Southern Asia are the most affected by heat stress in the Asia and the Pacific region and by 2030, the impact of heat stress on labour productivity is expected to be even more pronounced.
In particular, up to 5.3 per cent of total working hours (the equivalent of 43 million full-time jobs) are projected to be lost, with two-thirds of Southern Asian countries facing losses of at least two per cent.
In a dire warning, the report said that the country most affected by heat stress is India, which lost 4.3 per cent of working hours in 1995 and is projected to lose 5.8 per cent of working hours in 2030.
Because of its large population, India is in absolute terms expected to lose the equivalent of 34 million full-time jobs in 2030 in productivity as a result of heat stress.
"Although most of the impact in India will be felt in the agricultural sector, more and more working hours are expected to be lost in the construction sector, where heat stress affects both male and female workers," it said.
National-level GDP losses are projected to be substantial in 2030, with reductions in GDP of more than five per cent expected to occur in Thailand, Cambodia, India and Pakistan due to heat stress.
Heat stress is defined as generally occurring at above 35 degrees Celsius, in places where there is high humidity. Heat stress affects, above all, outdoor workers such as those engaged in agriculture and on construction sites. Excess heat at work is an occupational health risk and in extreme cases can lead to heatstroke, which can be fatal, the UN agency said.
The report also noted that the western Indian city of Ahmedabad incorporated a cool roofs initiative into its 2017 Heat Action Plan, notably by providing access to affordable cool roofs for the city's slum residents and urban poor, ie those who are most vulnerable to the health effects of extreme heat.
The initiative aims to turn the roofs of at least 500 slum dwellings into cool roofs, improve the reflectivity of roofs on government buildings and schools, and raise public awareness.
"The impact of heat stress on labour productivity is a serious consequence of climate change," said Catherine Saget, Chief of Unit in the ILO's Research department and one of the main authors of the report.
"We can expect to see more inequality between low and high-income countries and worsening working conditions for the most vulnerable."
With some 940 million people active in agriculture around the world, farmers are set to be worst hit by rising temperatures, according to the ILO data, which indicates that the sector will be responsible for 60 per cent of global working hours lost from heat stress, by 2030.
Construction will also be "severely impacted", with an estimated 19 per cent of global working hours lost at the end of the next decade, ILO says.
Other at-risk sectors include refuse collection, emergency services, transport, tourism and sports, with southern Asian and western African States suffering the biggest productivity losses, equivalent to approximately five per cent of working hours by 2030.
The report noted that a labour market challenge pertains to the high rates of informality in the region, particularly in Southern Asia and South-East Asia.
As many as 90 per cent of all workers in India, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Nepal work informally. Although the prevalence of informality can to a great extent be explained by the high share of employment in agriculture, informality is also pervasive in other sectors, including construction, wholesale and retail trade, and the accommodation and food service industries.
"Temperatures exceeding 39 C can kill. But even where there are no fatalities, such temperatures can leave many people unable to work or able to work only at a reduced rate. Some groups of workers are more vulnerable than others because they suffer the effects of heat stress at lower temperatures," the report said.
Older workers, in particular, have lower physiological resistance to high levels of heat and represent an increasing share of workers - a natural consequence of population ageing.
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Rs 30,000 cr loss a month: Oil companies bleed as fuel prices on hold amid global energy spike
New Delhi (PTI): About Rs 700-1,000 crore loss per day. Rs 30,000 crore every month. India's state oil companies are quietly absorbing a massive financial hit to keep petrol, diesel and LPG prices unchanged even as global energy markets face a turmoil that is bigger than all previous crises combined.
While countries from Japan to United Kingdom have raised petrol and diesel prices by up to 30 per cent since the start of the West Asia conflict, fuel prices in India continue at two-year-old levels.
The war disrupted India's import of 40 per cent of crude oil (raw material for making petrol and diesel), 90 per cent cooking gas LPG and 65 per cent natural gas (used to generate electricity, make fertilizer, turned into CNG and piped to household kitchens for cooking), but state-owned oil companies have maintained uninterrupted fuel supplies with no rationing or shortage at any point in the last 10 weeks.
But this has come at a cost - Rs 30,000 crore under-recovery or loss every month for the three oil marketing companies - Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.
The under-recoveries - the gap between input costs and realised retail prices - rose sharply in March/April before tapering a bit. Daily under-recoveries during April were estimated at about Rs 18 per litre on petrol and Rs 25 per litre on diesel, translating into average losses of Rs 700-1,000 crore a day for OMCs, they said.
At a news briefing on developments in West Asia, Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, said prices in the international markets, on which India relies to meet 88 per cent of its oil needs, have been volatile and supplies impacted.
Crude oil prices which were around USD 70 per barrel two months ago, are now at USD 120, she said. "It has been government's endeavour to keep prices stable so far and that there is no price increase for consumers," she said. "This has hit finances of OMCs... monthly under-recoveries are of the order of Rs 30,000 crore."
She, however, refused to say if retail petrol and diesel prices will continue to hold.
"As I said, the endeavour so far has been to see that there is no price increase," she said.
The three oil marketing companies (OMCs) have worked overtime to keep the supply lines running even when demand spiked due to panic buying.
The government intervention included excise duty reductions and absorption of part of the fuel cost burden. The special additional excise duty on petrol was cut to Rs 3 per litre from Rs 13, while excise duty on diesel was reduced to zero from Rs 10 per litre.
The under-recoveries would have swelled to nearly Rs 62,500 crore had the government not cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each.
The government, Sharma said, has taken a hit of Rs 14,000 crore a month in cutting the excise duty.
The Centre's effective absorption at peak crude prices was estimated at around Rs 24 per litre for petrol and Rs 30 per litre for diesel.
The February 28 strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran triggered a sharp escalation in West Asia tensions. Energy prices surged as the conflict widened and shipping risks intensified in the Strait of Hormuz - the shipping lane through which India and other countries imported crude oil, LPG and natural gas from Gulf countries. Tanker movement was disrupted.
The companies also faced additional costs from emergency crude sourcing, higher freight charges due to vessel diversions, elevated marine insurance premiums and refinery optimisation expenses. Despite these pressures, fuel and LPG supplies remained uninterrupted across the country.
The surge in crude prices and the decision to shield consumers from higher retail prices placed significant strain on OMC balance sheets and refining margins, sources said.
They added that the measures reflected a policy decision to prioritise consumer stability and economic continuity during a global energy shock.
Sources warned that a prolonged period of elevated crude prices could lead to higher working capital borrowings and force some recalibration of capital expenditure plans. However, investments linked to refining expansion, energy security infrastructure, ethanol blending, biofuels and transition fuels would continue with government backing, they said.
India's approach contrasted with measures adopted by several other economies, where fuel prices rose sharply after the conflict-driven energy shock.
Petrol prices increased by about 34 per cent in Spain, 30 per cent in Japan, Italy and Israel, 27 per cent in Germany and 22 per cent in the United Kingdom, according to estimates. Several countries also introduced rationing, conservation advisories, emergency relief packages or fuel caps.
In India, petrol prices remained Rs 94.77 per litre and diesel at Rs 87.67, with no rationing, mobility restrictions or supply disruptions, they added.
Sharma said the revenues that OMCs earn are used to buy crude oil, build infrastructure to process it into fuel and create channels that will take the fuel to consumers.
Their capex spending is all dependent on the revenues they earn, she added.
