India should create strategic buffers to navigate 'most difficult' energy shock: CEA Nageswaran
New Delhi (PTI): Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Saturday said India needs to create strategic buffers in the face of the "most difficult" energy shock that the country is facing amid the West Asia crisis.
Nageswaran also said the rising prices of fertiliser and petroleum products globally due to the crisis will make it challenging to achieve the 4.3 per cent fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal, while below normal monsoon and pass-through of higher energy prices could lead to "potential inflation spike".
He also said India has employment challenge emanating from AI, and there is a need to ensure that IT sector becomes more competitive and not lose jobs to AI, and instead create jobs that use AI within the IT sector or in other services.
Speaking at the ICPP Growth Conference organised by the Ashoka University, Nageswaran said the current account deficit (CAD) in the current fiscal could rise to over 2 per cent of GDP, from less than 1 per cent in FY'26.
"The ... priority for us is to create strategic buffers. This energy shock is the most difficult one compared to any other previous energy shock in terms of energy lost as a percentage of total global energy supply, not just oil, including gas.
"And we also need to use this occasion to think about other areas where we are vulnerable in terms of import dependence, nickel, tin, and copper. We need to build strategic buffers if we have to make a shot at manufacturing and becoming indispensable," Nageswaran said.
Since the beginning of the war in West Asia on February 28, crude oil prices soared to a four-year high of USD 126 per barrel on Thursday, from about USD 73 level before the war.
Stating that geopolitics will compel policymakers to be nimble and flexible and shed old model of thinking, Nageswaran said India is better prepared than many other countries to deal with the crisis because of the fiscal leeway that the country has due to lowering of fiscal deficit ratio to 4.4 per cent of GDP in FY'26.
Nageswaran said the West Asia conflict is more of a price shock than supply shock for India as the government is managing the supply side deftly.
"This particular conflict, which is going to be on a low simmer or a high flame situation, whatever it is, it is going to be there with us in some form or the other because the military conflict may be over, but the strategic conflict is well and truly alive. It will be so for some time," Nageswaran said.
He said the conflict has four channels of shock: price and supply shock, trade impact, sticky logistics costs and remittance shock.
India imports 60 per cent of its LPG usage and of that, 90 per cent flows through the now closed Strait of Hormuz.
Nageswaran said the pass-through of high global energy prices would have to be a "balancing act". He said some pass-through is already happening in commercial LPG, and the levy of export duty on diesel and ATF.
The government has cut excise duty on petrol and diesel to shield customers from the impact of the rise in petroleum prices. "We are coming around to arriving at a certain modus vivendi with respect to burden-sharing between the fiscal policy side, inflation, households and the oil marketing companies. So it has to be a balancing act," Nageswaran said.
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Commercial LPG hike: Delhi restaurant owners warn of higher menu rates, job losses
New Delhi (PTI) A day after a 50 per cent rise in commercial LPG cylinder prices, Delhi's food business, with restaurant owners and street vendors have warned of higher menu rates, financial strain and potential job losses if the trend persists.
The price of commercial LPG was hiked by a steep Rs 993 per 19 kg cylinder, marking the third consecutive monthly hike amid rising global energy prices linked to the West Asia conflict.
For many in the restaurant industry, the spike has been both sudden and steep.
Manpreet Singh, honorary treasurer of the National Restaurant Association of India, said that eateries are already grappling with supply challenges alongside rising costs.
"There is a huge difficulty in getting these cylinders, and black marketing is also increasing in many unregulated sectors," he said, noting that prices that were once around Rs 1,600, often dropping to nearly Rs 1,300 with discounts, have now surged to between Rs 3,000 and Rs 4,000 per cylinder.
He further added that a medium-sized restaurant typically uses between two and five cylinders daily, making the increase particularly burdensome as costs mount.
Singh further said that as costs mount, smaller establishments could struggle to stay afloat. Instead, the association has advised restaurants to shift towards piped natural gas connections through Indraprastha Gas Limited as a more sustainable alternative.
"If this problem continues, PNG is the only long-term solution," he said, adding that temporary measures like coal offer limited relief due to slower cooking times and that it can largely be used only for tandoors.
Echoing similar concerns, Kabir Suri, owner of Mamagoto in Khan Market, said the impact is already visible across the industry. "There has been almost a threefold increase in cylinder prices for restaurants," he said, adding that rising fuel and logistics costs are compounding the pressure.
"If this continues, it will become a significant financial burden, and food prices will inevitably go up. Adding to this burden, higher fuel costs are also affecting logistics and transportation, making a price rise unavoidable. The extent of the impact will vary between small eateries and large chains depending on their scale," he said.
Global oil prices have surged nearly 50 per cent following disruptions in energy supply chains due to the West Asia conflict, pushing up commercial fuel costs and transport expenses.
A West Delhi-based restaurateur said they are trying to manage rising costs while keeping their staff secure. "We are trying to ensure that our staff, from kitchen workers to waiters, are paid on time and do not face immediate hardship," the owner said.
"We are a small restaurant with seating for about 20 to 25 people at a time. But if this continues for long, we will have to take difficult calls. There is only so much we can absorb, and menu prices will have to go up. We hope this does not continue for a longer period," he said.
Another restaurant owner in North Delhi, who did not wish to be named, said operational adjustments alone may not be enough. "We are checking our costs very carefully and trying to cut wherever possible, but if fuel prices remain high, it will eventually affect how we run the business," the owner said.
"Coal helps in tandoor cooking, but it takes more time," the owner further added.
The strain is even more acute among street vendors, many of whom operate on thin margins. A vendor in Saket said he had recently expanded his business, moving from a mobile cart to a rented outlet.
"I have a family to feed and more responsibilities now. Earlier, I managed with a moving cart, but after renting the place, expenses increased," he said. "Whenever cylinders were unavailable, I had to buy them at higher rates in the black market. Now even regular supply is too expensive, and if this continues, we may have to shut down," he added.
In Laxmi Nagar, another vendor said they are struggling to keep the business running. "Sometimes we even used domestic cylinders from home when supply ran out because we had to keep the stall running," he said, adding that rising costs leave little choice but to increase prices or bear losses.
On April 1, the rates of commercial LPG cylinders were hiked by Rs 195.50 per cylinder, followed by a Rs 114.5 hike on March 1, taking the total increase over the past three months to Rs 1,303. With the latest revision, a 19 kg commercial LPG cylinder now costs Rs 3,371.5 in Delhi, up from Rs 2,078.5 earlier.
The prices of domestic LPG cylinders used for household cooking have remained unchanged. They were last increased by Rs 60 per 14.2 kg cylinder on March 7 and currently cost Rs 913 in Delhi.
