Migration from Kerala declined 11% in 5 years: Study
Thiruvananthapuram, Sep 17 : Factors like the declining population in the 19-25 age-group and stagnant wages in the Gulf countries could be responsible for migration from Kerala declining 11 per cent between 2013 and 2018, a new study says.
"Of the 2.1 million emigrants (from Kerala in the Gulf and elsewhere), 15.8 per cent are females. However, there is a reduction of 3 lakhs migrants, which is one-tenth of the number of migrants in 2013. In 2018, we reached a stage where migrants figures shown a negative growth of 11.6 per cent," S. Irudayarajan, who led the Kerala Migration Survey (KMS) 2018 told reporters here on Monday.
The survey is the eighth in a series of studies on migration undertaken by the Centre for Development Studies (CDS) since 1998. CDS is an internationally renowned, self-governing institution known for its cutting edge research in applied economics and topics germane to socio-economic development. It was established in 1971 by the late Professor K.N. Raj, considered the architect of India's First Five-Year Plan (1951-56), and a former Vice Chancellor of Delhi University, with whom he was associated for 18 years.
Explaining the reason for the decline Irudayarajan said it could be due to the cumulative effects of the demographic advances which have decreased the population in the migration-prone age-group (15-29 years) as Kerala attained replacement fertility level in around 1987.
"Wages in the Gulf economies have not improved after the global economic crisis. This has led to lower savings, de-motivating them to migrate. Another reason is wages in the domestic economy have increased compared to other states," said Irudayarajan.
Explaining further he said the price of oil, on which the Gulf economy is based has been declining since 2010.
"Although the last one year has seen a slight increase in oil price, the growth of the Gulf economy has suffered a major setback. Due to nationalisation policies such as Nitaqat and recently introduced family taxes in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies appear to be not that conducive for current and prospective migrants," Irudayarajan noted.
The study was conducted through a survey of 15,000 households from January 1-March 31 and was funded by the Kerala government's Department of Non-Resident Keralites' Affairs.
The study notes that 89.2 per cent of the total migrants from Kerala are in the Middle East countries.
In 2013 while there were 20.70 lakh migrants in the Middle East, the figure fell to 18.93 lakh in 2018. The remaining 10 per cent of the emigrants are concentrated in the other countries like the USA, the UK, and Australia.
In 2013 there were 8.9 lakh in the UAE while in 2018 it stands at 8.30 lakh, followed by 5.22 lakhs in Saudi Arabia and falling to 4.87 lakh in 2018.
In Qatar, there has been an increase from 1.06 lakhs in 2013 to 1.86 lakhs in 2018 but in Bahrain there has been a fall from 1.49 lakhs in 2013 to 0.81 lakhs in 2018.
The study found that one in every fifth household in Kerala has a migrant, while among religious groups, one in every third household is a Muslim, one in five household is a Christian and one in 10 households is a Hindu.
The estimated total annual remittances to Kerala have been placed at 85,092 crore.
"Of the total remittances at state level, Malappuram district receives 21 per cent, followed by Kollam (15 per cent), and Thrissur (11 per cent)," added Irudayarajan.
Concluding his findings, he said the long history of migration from Kerala to the Gulf is in its last phase.
"However, remittances to the state have increased. This is due to the fact that Keralites' in the Gulf have climbed the social ladder and are earning higher wages, allowing them to remit more. Thanks to the weakening rupee, families remit more. The KMS 2018, has also confirmed that the migration from Kerala is falling and return of migrants is on the rise," added Irudayarajan.
On the study of return migrants as estimated by KMS 2018, it is 1.29 million, which is about 60 per cent of the number of emigrants.
"The KMS 2018, would be an invaluable pointer for further policy formation in terms of international migration and also employment schemes of the government. The last 20 years of KMS proved that almost 40 per cent of total remittances to the state were used by emigrants in land, housing and its assets.
"With the recent devastating floods, and the massive loss of physical capital and land value, migration can be conjectured to increase at least in the short run. We expect the trend will change after the floods as migration will play major role as a livelihood option for the New Kerala, where we expect further migration and remittances. This requires another quick assessment by the Government of Kerala," said Irudayarajan.
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TraceX Guard Strengthens National Safety Against Mobile Cyber Threats
India is witnessing a sharp rise in trojanised Android APK scams, as cybercriminals increasingly exploit fake government, banking, LPG, challan, and welfare scheme apps to seize full remote control of victims’ smartphones.
Cybersecurity investigators warn that attackers are now widely deploying Remote Access Trojan (RAT) malware, often powered by leaked builder kits such as CraxsRAT and heavily modified custom payload frameworks. Once installed, these malicious APKs can convert an ordinary Android phone into a fully controlled fraud device, enabling silent surveillance, banking theft, and mass scam propagation.
These malware campaigns are primarily being distributed through WhatsApp, Telegram, SMS phishing links, and fake APK download websites, where users are tricked into installing apps disguised as:
- e-Challan apps
- SBI KYC verification tools
- PM Yojana portals
- mParivahan clones
- LPG booking apps
- fake adult video call apps
As the scale of the threat intensifies, cybersecurity startup TraceX Labs has introduced TraceX Guard, positioning it as a frontline mobile defence platform against APK fraud, RAT infections, QR scams, and malicious permission abuse.
Fear-Based Social Engineering Behind the Surge
According to investigators, these frauds typically begin with panic-driven social engineering messages sent over WhatsApp or Telegram.
Common bait messages include:
- Your traffic challan has been issued
- Your SBI KYC is pending
- PM Yojana verification required
- Your LPG cylinder booking failed
- Your bank account will be blocked
These alerts often include fake challan numbers, vehicle details, Aadhaar-linked references, or forged bank notices, creating a sense of urgency that pushes victims to install the malicious APK without verification.
One of the most dangerous variants currently in circulation is a fake mParivahan-style application, which closely mimics India’s legitimate transport services interface while secretly embedding a hidden RAT payload.
How the Malware Takes Over Smartphones
Once installed, the malicious APK immediately requests dangerous permissions, including:
- Accessibility access
- SMS permissions
- Call logs
- Notifications
- File storage
- Battery optimization exemptions
Security researchers say Accessibility Service abuse remains the most critical attack vector, allowing the malware to silently:
- read screen contents
- detect banking and UPI apps
- auto-click Allow / Confirm / Pay buttons
- capture OTPs
- launch hidden overlays
- navigate banking sessions
- trigger silent fund transfers
Because these actions occur directly on the victim’s trusted device, attackers are often able to bypass traditional fraud detection systems.
Within minutes, victims may lose control over:
- bank balances
- UPI wallets
- Aadhaar and PAN scans
- contact lists
- personal photos and media
- incoming calls
- SMS OTPs
In many cases, the malware also self-propagates by forwarding malicious APK links through the victim’s own WhatsApp groups and Telegram chats, triggering a chain infection effect across trusted social circles.Fake RTO Challan APKs Become the Most Dangerous Variant
Among the most active campaigns, fake RTO challan APK scams have emerged as one of the most financially destructive.
Victims are first lured into paying a ₹1 “verification fee”, after which the malicious app requests highly sensitive information such as:
- card number
- expiry date
- CVV
- UPI PIN
- net banking credentials
- even ATM PINs
Cybersecurity experts stress that no legitimate government payment system ever asks for an ATM PIN inside an app, making this an immediate red flag.
Once payment details are entered, the embedded RAT intercepts OTPs and silently completes unauthorized transactions.
India’s Mobile Fraud Crisis Reaches Critical Levels
Investigators estimate that more than 70% of reported cyber fraud cases in India now originate from mobile devices, with millions of complaints linked to:
- malicious APKs
- phishing URLs
- QR scams
- RAT droppers
- banking session hijacks
- WhatsApp fraud chains
The impact is particularly severe across Tier-2 and Tier-3 regions, where smartphone adoption has expanded faster than awareness around:
- APK sideloading risks
- dangerous permissions
- fake banking overlays
- accessibility abuse
- WhatsApp APK scams
This has effectively turned Android smartphones into the primary battlefield of India’s financial cybercrime ecosystem.
TraceX Guard Introduced as a Real-Time Defence Layer
In response to this rapidly evolving threat landscape, TraceX Labs has launched TraceX Guard, an AI-powered multilingual Android security suite built specifically for India’s APK fraud ecosystem.
The platform offers:
- real-time APK scanning
- malicious permission detection
- hidden app discovery
- RAT behaviour monitoring
- QR & phishing URL safety grading
- OTP and SIM fraud alerts
- Wi-Fi hotspot verification
- ransomware defence
- India-specific scam intelligence feeds
- support for 10+ regional languages
Its offline-first AI architecture allows users to scan threats without uploading personal data, making it especially useful for privacy-conscious users and low-connectivity regions.
TraceX Labs says the system is specifically trained to detect patterns used in:
- fake challan scams
- counterfeit SBI APKs
- PM Yojana malware
- wedding invitation APK attacks
- honey-trap adult apps
- Telegram-based RAT droppers
From Phishing to Malware-Driven Financial Warfare
Cybersecurity analysts say this marks a major shift in India’s digital threat landscape.
What once began as simple phishing links has now evolved into malware-driven financial warfare at scale, where a single infected smartphone can silently compromise:
- families
- WhatsApp groups
- banking accounts
- local communities
- social trust networks
With losses from mobile-first fraud already running into tens of thousands of crores, experts believe the future of cyber defence will increasingly depend on preventive mobile security tools capable of stopping unsafe APKs before installation.
In that battle, TraceX Guard is emerging as one of the most important first lines of defence for India’s digital users.
Download Now : https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tracexlabs.guard
