Rahul Gandhi's popularity, acceptibility as PM almost doubled since 2014: Study
New Delhi: A recent study published by The Print delves into the dynamics of Indian politics as the 2024 Lok Sabha elections draw nearer. While definitive conclusions are premature, the study offers insights into both the continuity and potential shifts in the political landscape.
The survey underscores the dominant role of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose popularity has played a pivotal role in securing consecutive victories for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 2014 and 2019. The "Modi factor" remains a constant, with four out of every ten respondents expressing their admiration for the Prime Minister. Furthermore, a slightly higher proportion indicated a desire to see him re-elected as PM, although this enthusiasm has seen a marginal decline since 2019.
Modi's speeches continue to mesmerize voters and draw them towards him, albeit with other contributing factors. Consequently, the survey suggests the possibility of a plurality of voters supporting the BJP in the 2024 elections, with the party projected to maintain its 2019 vote share and even potentially gain additional support.
Beneath this continuity, however, lies an intriguing change in public sentiment. While overall satisfaction with the Modi government remains higher than dissatisfaction, a closer examination of the data reveals a steep decline in the proportion of those "fully satisfied" and a rise in the number of dissatisfied respondents, reaching 40 percent from 30 percent in 2019. Concerns about the government's handling of economic, social, and policy-related issues have contributed to this disappointment, although respondents still express contentment with developmental and infrastructure initiatives.
Parallel to this sense of disillusionment is the emergence of alternative leadership and political choices. The survey highlights an increase in Rahul Gandhi's acceptability as a potential prime minister, nearly doubling since 2014. Approximately 25 percent of respondents consistently favored Gandhi, with another 15 percent drawn in more recently, particularly due to the Bharat Jodo Yatra. Notably, more than half of this new support comes from non-Congress voters, making their future party preference significant.
Crucially, Modi remains a polarizing figure, with roughly a quarter of respondents neither liking nor disliking either Modi or Rahul Gandhi. Meanwhile, approximately 23 percent express their dislike for Modi, while 16 percent hold a similar sentiment towards Rahul Gandhi. One in three respondents views Rahul Gandhi as a potential challenger to Modi.
Despite these evolving sentiments, the BJP's vote share has not yet eroded. However, the survey indicates a notable increase in the proportion of respondents willing to vote for the Congress "if elections were held tomorrow," suggesting a rise from its stagnant vote share of under 20 percent in the previous two elections. Interestingly, this increase seems to come at the expense of "other" parties rather than the BJP, potentially impacting the formation of a non-BJP alliance and the Congress' ability to challenge the BJP in bipolar contests.
While these insights capture the current voter sentiment, they represent a snapshot almost a year ahead of the elections. The ever-present "X" factor in politics and the unfolding events over the coming months will undoubtedly shape the future landscape. The survey highlights Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's rising prominence as a challenger to Modi, alongside Rahul Gandhi. Additionally, if Modi chooses not to contest, approximately 20 percent of respondents view Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath as a potential alternative.
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Kerala reels under heavy rains; IMD issues red alert in three districts
Thiruvananthapuram, Jul 26 (PTI): Heavy rains since Friday night have caused widespread damage across several parts of Kerala, raising water levels in rivers and dams and uprooting trees, which resulted in one death and injuries to several persons.
It also prompted the India Meteorological Department, on Saturday evening, to upgrade its rain alert status in Ernakulam, Idukki, and Thrissur districts from 'orange' to 'red'.
It also issued an 'orange alert' for Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur, and Kasaragod districts, and a 'yellow alert' for the remaining three.
A 'red alert' indicates "heavy to extremely heavy" rainfall of over 20 cm in 24 hours. An 'orange alert' denotes "very heavy" rainfall of 11 to 20 cm, while a 'yellow alert' signals "heavy rain" between 6 and 11 cm.
The IMD said rains are likely to persist over the next five days, accompanied by strong winds reaching speeds of 50-60 kmph till Sunday.
Fishing has been advised against along the Kerala-Karnataka-Lakshadweep coasts until July 30 due to rough seas and strong winds.
In Kozhikode, overnight rains and strong winds uprooted trees and caused extensive damage to houses and vehicles, prompting shifting of several families to safer places. However, no one was injured.
Power lines and electric poles were brought down, disrupting supply in many parts of the district.
Similar incidents were reported from Kottayam, Palakkad, and Kannur districts.
In Kannur, one person died when a tree fell on his house. In similar incidents in the district, few others were injured.
In Kottayam, besides the damage to homes due to uprooted trees, the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) suffered a loss of Rs 2.43 crore due to several electric poles and power cables being brought down by the strong winds and rain in the district on Friday and Saturday.
In Kuttanad and Upper Kuttanad regions of Alappuzha district, the heavy rains resulted in inundation of several low-lying areas, including roads and homes, and rise in river waters to dangerous levels.
With water levels rising in their catchment areas, shutters of the Banasura Sagar dam in Wayanad, the Aliyar dam in Palakkad and Kakkayam Dam in Kozhikode district have been raised to release excess water.
Residents living downstream have been advised to stay vigilant.
The Irrigation Design and Research Board (IDRB) and Central Water Commission (CWC) have issued alerts for several rivers that have "risen dangerously", including the Manimala, Achankovil, and Pamba rivers in Pathanamthitta; Vamanapuram in Thiruvananthapuram; Pallikkal in Kollam, Muvattupuzha in Ernakulam and Thodupuzha in Idukki.
People residing along riverbanks have been urged to exercise caution and avoid entering or crossing the water bodies.
Meanwhile, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has warned of possible sea surges and high waves reaching 2.8 to 3.4 metres along the Kasaragod and Alappuzha coasts till 8.30 pm on Sunday.
Fishermen and coastal residents have been advised to remain alert, it added.
