Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
Let the Truth be known. If you read VB and like VB, please be a VB Supporter and Help us deliver the Truth to one and all.
Rohit identifies Arshdeep, Hardik as key to India's chances in T20 World Cup
New Delhi (PTI): T20 World Cup-winning captain Rohit Sharma reckons all-rounder Hardik Pandya and left-arm seamer Arshdeep Singh will hold the key to India's prospects in the upcoming edition of the tournament.
Defending champions India will enter the T20 showpiece as one of the overwhelming favourites due to their massive depth and quality.
Rohit highlighted Arshdeep's effectiveness with the new ball and at the death.
"It is a big positive to have both Jasprit Bumrah and Arshdeep Singh together because they always attack for wickets. Arshdeep's biggest strength is swinging the new ball and taking early wickets. He mainly bowls with the new ball and at the death. Starting and finishing are the most important phases, and he is strong in both," Rohit told JioHotstar.
"With the new ball, he swings it to get left-handers caught in the slips and targets the pads of right-handers. He has also started taking the ball away from right-handers. These skills are key for a new-ball bowler. He always tries to take wickets, which is why he bowls the first over."
Rohit added, "In the 2024 T20 World Cup final against South Africa, he did a great job. I still remember he dismissed Quinton de Kock when he was set and batting well. In the 19th over, he gave away just two or three runs, which built pressure on the South Africans.
"That is his game, bowling with the new ball and at the death, and he will play a key role for India in the 2026 T20 World Cup."
India won the last edition of the tournament in the Americas under Rohit's captaincy, after which the dashing opener retired from the T20 format internationally.
Rohit also spoke about how Hardik's dual role as a finisher and multi-phase bowler provides crucial balance to the Indian team.
"Whenever Hardik Pandya is in the team, his role is huge. He bats and bowls very consistently. His batting is crucial when the team is stuck. If we have a score of 160 on the board in 15-16 overs and Hardik is batting, then he's the one who can help the team reach 210-220 from there or if we are 50 for 4, he has to build the innings.
"Batting in the middle order at 5, 6, or 7 is very tough. That is why Hardik's role is critical in any format. We know his bowling. He bowls in key phases, with the new ball, in the middle and in the death as well. His role is very important because he gives the team balance, letting us play six bowlers and keep our batting deep."
Rohit said accommodating both Kuldeep Yadav and Varun Chakravarthy together in the playing XI is going to be a big challenge for the Indian team management.
"The biggest challenge for captain Suryakumar Yadav and coach Gautam Gambhir will be how to play both Kuldeep Yadav and Varun Chakaravarthy together. If you want that combination, you can only do it if you play with two seamers, which is a big challenge.
"But honestly, I would be tempted to play both Varun and Kuldeep because they are wicket-takers and batters struggle to read them. I would surely pick them."
The former India skipper added, "Looking at the conditions in India, like in this New Zealand series, there is a lot of dew. In February and March, dew will be heavy across most parts as winter ends.
"Even in Mumbai, which doesn't get cold, there's still dew. I'd say 90-95 percent of grounds in India have dew. That's the challenge. What do the coach and captain think? Are they comfortable with three spinners? Then they can play spin, but there's no fixed rule. It depends on the team leaders' thinking."
Rohit also urged Kuldeep to stop appealing on every ball and to rely on the wicketkeeper's judgment for reviews.
"My one simple advice to Kuldeep is to just bowl quietly and go back to his mark. You can't appeal on every ball. This is basic. I keep saying it, but it still happens often. Even after telling him many times, he appeals at every chance. You have to use your head. Just because it touches the pad, it doesn't mean it's out every time. This isn't gully cricket.
"I get he is enthusiastic, but think of the team first. Each team only gets two DRS reviews. If I was the keeper, I could see where the ball pitched and if it was hitting, I could tell the bowler.
"But from covers or slip, you don't know the angle. You have to listen to what the keeper and bowler say. That's why when there's a review off Kuldeep's bowling, I don't look at him, I look at the keeper to decide."
The T20 World Cup is scheduled to be held in venues across India and Sri Lanka from February 7 to March 8.
