Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
Let the Truth be known. If you read VB and like VB, please be a VB Supporter and Help us deliver the Truth to one and all.
Modi should leverage his ties with world leaders to de-escalate war in West Asia: Omar Abdullah
Jammu (PTI): Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Monday said India can play a meaningful role in de-escalation in West Asia, given Prime Minister Narendra Modi's strong relations with the warring countries and their neighbours.
He said Pakistan was leveraging ties with Iran and the United States, and that any effort towards ending the war should be welcomed.
"As I said in the House (Assembly), we would like the war to end as soon as possible. The role that the prime minister can play may not be possible for anyone else because of his good relations with all these countries," Abdullah told reporters on the sidelines of a function here.
He, however, said any escalation would not be easy to manage.
"Any such move by US President Donald Trump, despite the long history of Iran resisting external domination, would not be easy," the chief minister said.
Asked about Pakistan mediating in the war, he said, "I will simply say that if any country can play a role in preventing this war, no one should have any objection to it."
He added, "I will repeat what I said … our prime minister has good and close relations with all countries — whether it is Israel, the United States, Iran, or the countries around Iran. If those relationships can be used to make some progress and help ease the situation, it would be a good thing."
Abdullah said attacks by terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed in India, as suggested by a report from the United States, are not unlikely.
Meanwhile, he asserted that any efforts to end the war, be it from Pakistan, must not be resisted.
"Pakistan is using its good relations with Iran and the United States to its advantage, and it has done so. How can we object to that? If that angle helps in stopping the war, would you want them not to act and let the war continue? We want the war to stop. If any country can play a role in that, it should. And if we can play an even better role, then we should do so," he said.
On unemployment in J-K, the chief minister said the issue cannot be resolved overnight, and government jobs alone are not the solution.
He stressed the need to explore alternative avenues, highlighting the importance of Mission Yuva in promoting entrepreneurship.
"Mission Yuva provides not just funding but also support in preparing DPRs and post-startup assistance, such as marketing. In just nine months, distributing Rs 1,000 crore and approving numerous schemes is a significant achievement," he said.
Abdullah credited the coordination between the government and Jammu and Kashmir Bank for the scheme's progress.
