Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
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London, Nov 22: A bomb disposal squad deployed as a “precaution” to the South Terminal of Gatwick Airport concluded an investigation into a "security incident" on Friday after making a “suspect package” safe.
The South Terminal of Gatwick Airport, the UK's second busiest airport after Heathrow, which was briefly shut owing to the incident reopened following the incident.
The Gatwick is around 45 km south of London.
Two people detained during the enquiries have since been allowed to continue their journey as the airport was opened.
“Police have concluded their investigation into a report of a suspect package at Gatwick Airport. Officers from the EOD (Explosive Ordnance Disposal) team made the package safe, and the airport has been handed back to its operator,” Sussex Police said in an updated statement.
“Two people detained while enquiries were ongoing have subsequently been allowed to continue their journeys. There will remain an increased police presence in the area to assist with passengers accessing the South Terminal for onward travel,” the statement added.
Earlier on Friday, the incident caused severe disruption at the busy airport’s South Terminal, while the North Terminal of Gatwick Airport remained unaffected.
“Police were called to the South Terminal at Gatwick Airport at 8.20 am on Friday (November 22) following the discovery of a suspected prohibited item in luggage,” a Sussex Police statement said.
“To ensure the safety of the public, staff and other airport users, a security cordon has been put in place whilst the matter is dealt with. As a precaution, an EOD (Explosive Ordnance Disposal) team is being deployed to the airport. This is causing significant disruption and some roads around the South Terminal have been closed. We’d advise the public to avoid the area where possible,” it said.
Footage on social media taken outside the airport showed crowds of frustrated travellers being moved away from the terminal building.
Gatwick said it was working hard to resolve the issue.
“A large part of the South Terminal has been evacuated as a precaution while we continue to investigate a security incident," the airport said in a social media post.
“Passengers will not be able to enter the South Terminal while this is ongoing. The safety and security of our passengers and staff remain our top priority. We are working hard to resolve the issue as quickly as possible.”
Train and bus services that serve the airport were also impacted while the police carried out their inquiries.
In an unrelated incident in south London on Friday morning, the US Embassy area in Nine Elms by the River Thames was the scene of a controlled explosion by Scotland Yard dealing with what they believe may have been a “hoax device”.
“We can confirm the 'loud bang' reported in the area a short time ago was a controlled explosion carried out by officers,” the Metropolitan Police said in a post on X.
“Initial indications are that the item was a hoax device. An investigation will now follow. Some cordons will remain in place for the time being but the majority of the police response will now be stood down,” it added.
