Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
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Mamata visits Bhabanipur EVM strong room, warns against counting irregularities
Kolkata (PTI): West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee early Friday warned against any attempt to tamper with the counting process, hours after she visited an EVM strong room in Bhabanipur, alleging possible malpractice.
Banerjee, who emerged around 12:07 am after spending nearly four hours at the counting centre for her Bhabanipur constituency housed in Sakhawat Memorial School in south Kolkata, said only one person would be allowed inside the designated counting area.
"Either the candidate or one agent can stay upstairs. I have also suggested installation of a CCTV camera for the media," she told reporters.
Stressing the need for transparency, she said, "It is essential to maintain transparency. People’s votes must be protected. I rushed here after receiving complaints. The central forces initially did not allow me to enter."
Sounding a stern note ahead of the May 4 counting, she added, "If there is any plan to tamper with the counting process, it will not be tolerated."
On Thursday evening, Banerjee had reached the Bhabanipur Assembly segment counting centre, which houses the strong room for EVMs used in the April 29 polling, citing suspicion of tampering with the machines.
She entered the premises along with her election agent and remained inside for hours, even as Kolkata Mayor and TMC candidate from the Kolkata Port segment Firhad Hakim reached the spot but could not meet her.
"I reached here upon learning that the chief minister has arrived. But I couldn’t meet her since she was already inside the premises, exercising her right as a candidate to visit strong rooms. I wasn’t allowed there. I will not be able to confirm what exactly is transpiring inside," Hakim said.
The development coincided with protests by TMC candidates Kunal Ghosh and Shashi Panja outside the Khudiram Anushilan Kendra in north Kolkata, where they staged a sit-in alleging irregularities and possible tampering of EVMs stored in strong rooms, leading to face-offs between TMC and BJP supporters.
Earlier in a video message, Banerjee had urged party leaders, workers and polling agents to maintain a 24-hour vigil on EVM strong rooms, alleging that the BJP could attempt to tamper with the machines before counting begins.
Her remarks come amid heightened political tension in the state following a fiercely contested Assembly election, with parties closely monitoring arrangements and raising concerns over transparency.
