Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
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Thiruvananthapuram: An article in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) mouthpiece Organiser has stated that the Catholic Church of India holds more land than the Waqf Board, which has long been believed to be the second-largest landowner in the country.
The article, titled "Who has more land in India? The Catholic Church vs Waqf Board Debate," as cited by The New Indian Express, challenges the commonly held view and asserts that the Catholic Church is the largest non-governmental landholder in India.
"For many years, there has been a common belief that the Waqf Board is the second largest landowner in India after the government, however, this claim does not align with the actual data on land ownership in the country. The Catholic Church of India holds the distinction of being the largest non-governmental landowner, possessing vast tracts of land spread across the country,” the article stated.
The Church is said to own approximately 17.29 crore acres (7 crore hectares) of land, with an estimated value of Rs 20,000 crore.
The article further noted the significant influence of the Catholic Church in India’s real estate landscape, listing scores of schools, hospitals, nursing colleges, and other institutions under its management. “As of 2012, the Catholic Church has 2,457 hospital dispensaries, 240 medical or nursing colleges, 28 general colleges, 5 engineering colleges, 3,765 secondary schools, 7,319 primary schools and 3,187 nursery schools in the field of education and healthcare sector in the country. Much of its land was acquired during British rule. In 1927, the British administration passed the Indian Church Act, facilitating large-scale land grants to the Church," it added.
However, the Organiser article also raised contentious issues, alleging that some of the Church's land acquisitions might have been questionable. It suggested that the Church’s charitable services, particularly in education and healthcare, could be a way of luring economically disadvantaged individuals into converting to Christianity, with some reports claiming that tribal and rural landowners were coerced into converting in exchange for Church-run services.
“Several cases have surfaced where tribal lands, once belonging to indigenous communities, were gradually transferred to Church authorities under various pretexts," the article stated.
This published write-up comes at a time when BJP leaders, particularly in Kerala, are celebrating the passing of the Waqf Amendment Bill, which they have described as a "gift" to the Munambam protesters, who are led by the Catholic Church.
Interestingly, Organiser has deleted the article after it was published.
