Early spread of COVID-19 far greater than initially reported: Study
Houston: There were thousands of undetected early cases of COVID-19 at the beginning of this year, according to a study which found that the disease was far more widespread in Wuhan, China, and Seattle in the US weeks ahead of lockdown measures in each city.
Researchers from The University of Texas (UT) at Austin in the US also concluded that the first case of COVID-19 in Seattle may have arrived as far back as Christmas or New Year's Day.
The study, published in the journal EClinicalMedicine, also found that about a third of the estimated undiagnosed cases in the US were among children.
The researchers extrapolated the extent of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan and Seattle based on retested throat swabs taken from patients who were suffering from influenza-like illnesses during January in Wuhan and during late February and early March in Seattle.
When the samples were analysed later in each city, most turned out to be flu, but some turned out to be positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, the researchers said.
"Even before we realized that COVID-19 was spreading, the data imply that there was at least one case of COVID-19 for every two cases of flu," said Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor at UT Austin.
"Since we knew how widespread flu was at that time, we could reasonably determine the prevalence of COVID-19, '' Meyers said.
When the Chinese government locked down Wuhan on January 22, there were 422 known cases, the researchers said.
However, extrapolating the throat-swab data across the city using a new epidemiological model, Meyers and her team found that there could have been more than 12,000 undetected symptomatic cases of COVID-19.
On March 9, the week when Seattle schools closed due to the virus, researchers estimated that more than 9,000 people with flu-like symptoms had COVID-19 and that about a third of that total were children.
The data do not imply that health authorities were aware of these infections, rather that they may have gone unseen during the early and uncertain stages of the pandemic.
"Given that COVID-19 appears to be overwhelmingly mild in children, our high estimate for symptomatic pediatric cases in Seattle suggests that there may have been thousands more mild cases at the time," said Zhanwei Du, a postdoctoral researcher in Meyers' lab and first author on the study.
According to several other studies, about half of COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic, leading researchers to believe that there may have been thousands more infected people in Wuhan and Seattle before each city's respective lockdown measures went into effect.
"We can go back and piece together the history of this pandemic using a combination of investigative techniques and modeling," Meyers said.
"This helps us understand how the pandemic spread so quickly around the globe and provides insight into what we may see in the coming weeks and months," she said.
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BJP Min. Vijayvargiya trolled for riding scooter without helmet amid water contamination crisis
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Indore: Madhya Pradesh Minister and senior BJP leader Kailash Vijayvargiya has come under criticism after videos surfaced showing him riding a scooter without a helmet and allegedly without a registration number during his visit to Bhagirathpura, which is hit by a severe contaminated water crisis.
The incident has triggered widespread online backlash and contributed to the growing criticism of the state government's handling of the crisis.
This comes a day after Vijayvargiya was caught on camera using objectionable language while responding to questions from a TV Journalist.
Vijayvargiya had arrived at Bhagirathpura riding a scooter to interact with residents and distribute cheques of ₹2 lakh each to the families of seven deceased persons.
However, the visit saw strong resistance from locals, particularly women, who expressed anger in front of the minister.
Videos of the confrontation were posted on social media by Madhya Pradesh Congress president Jitu Patwari.
In one of the clips, a woman is heard saying that dirty water has been supplied for the last two years and that repeated complaints to the BJP councillor had not resolved the issue.
Patwari, in a post on X, wrote that the entire locality was suffering while the minister “did not even listen to the sister’s words.”
गंदे पानी से 13 मौतों के बाद जब कैबिनेट मंत्री कैलाश विजयवर्गीय अपनी विधानसभा के लोगों से मिलने पहुंचे, तब एक बहन ने उनकी पोल खोल दी।
— Jitendra (Jitu) Patwari (@jitupatwari) January 1, 2026
महिला ने बताया कि पिछले दो वर्षों से गंदा पानी आ रहा है। इस बारे में भाजपा पार्षद को बार बार बताया गया, लेकिन आज तक समस्या का समाधान नहीं हुआ।… pic.twitter.com/4iUsd8omux
Social media users troll Vijayvargiya
“Dear @MPPoliceDeptt, He is Cabinet Minister Kailash Vijayvargiya. He wasn’t wearing a helmet, and the scooter he was using had no number plate,” wrote @NalinisKitchen.
“Kailash Vijayvargiya is in PR Damage control mode. He got so excited that he went on a scooty without helmet & ended up exposing the pathetic pothole and dirt filled road of Indore, city in a state that BJP is in power for almost 20 years now. Self Goal,” wrote @RoshanKrRaii.
“PR damage control turned into a reality check. One scooty ride by Kailash Vijayvargiya exposed Indore’s broken roads, potholes, and dirt—after 2 decades of BJP rule. When optics fail, truth shows up. Self-goal,” wrote another user.
“Look at the filthy streets under the jurisdiction of this incompetent MLA @KailashOnline. On top of that, he roams around the dirty streets in unregistered vehicles without helmets like a goon,” said another post.
10 deaths reported, over 1,400 affected in Bhagirathpura
Indore Mayor Pushyamitra Bhargava said on Friday that he had received information about 10 deaths caused by a diarrhoea outbreak linked to contaminated drinking water in Bhagirathpura.
However, local residents have claimed that at least 14 people, including a six-month-old infant, have died due to the health crisis. The health department has not officially confirmed these claims.
According to reports, a leak was found in the main drinking water supply pipeline near a police outpost in Bhagirathpura, at a spot where a toilet has been constructed. The leakage led to contamination of the water supply.
Over the past nine days, more than 1,400 people have been affected by vomiting and diarrhea in the area.
A health department official, citing the situation till Thursday night, said that 272 patients were admitted to hospitals, of whom 71 have been discharged. At present, 201 patients are hospitalised, and 32 of them are undergoing treatment in intensive care units.
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