First COVID-19 case may have emerged in China in October 2019: Study
London: The SARS-CoV-2 virus, that causes COVID-19, may have started spreading in China as early as October 2019, two months before the first case was identified in Wuhan, according to a modelling study.
The research, published in the journal PLOS Pathogens on Thursday, suggests that the first case of COVID-19 arose between early October and mid-November, 2019 in China, with the most likely date of origin being November 17.
The origins of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remain unclear. The first officially identified case occurred in early December 2019.
However, mounting evidence suggests that the original case may have emerged even earlier.
David Roberts from the University of Kent, UK, and colleagues repurposed a mathematical model originally developed to determine the date of extinction of a species, based on recorded sightings of the species.
They reversed the method to determine the date when COVID-19 most likely originated, according to when some of the earliest known cases occurred in 203 countries.
"This novel application within the field of epidemiology offers a new opportunity to understand the emergence and spread of diseases as it only requires a small amount of data," Roberts said.
The analysis suggests that the first case occurred in China between early October and mid-November of 2019.
The first case most likely arose on November 17, and the disease spread globally by January 2020, according to the researchers.
The findings support growing evidence that the pandemic arose sooner and grew more rapidly than officially accepted, they said.
The analysis also identified when COVID-19 is likely to have spread to the first five countries outside of China, as well as other continents.
The results suggest that the virus spread beyond China by January 2020 with the estimated first case being in Japan on January 3, 2020, and followed by Thailand on January 7, 2020.
The third earliest origination date, outside of China, suggests that the virus had left eastern Asia and arrived in Europe, with an estimated first case on January 12, 2020, in Spain.
The virus appears to have continued spreading to other countries in eastern Asia with the fourth earliest origination date outside of China being in South Korea on January 14, 2020, the researchers said.
Following the spread to Europe, the virus appears to have spread to North America with an estimated first case being in the US on January 16, 2020, making the US the fifth country, they said.
The researchers noted that their novel method could be applied to better understand the spread of other infectious diseases in the future.
Better knowledge of the origins of COVID-19 could improve understanding of its continued spread, they added.
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2 detained after comment over wedding procession to Dalit house sparks clash in UP's Shahjahanpur
Shahjahanpur (UP) (PTI): Two persons have been detained after a clash broke out allegedly over remarks targeting a Dalit family's wedding procession in Uttar Pradesh's Shahjahanpur district, police said on Saturday.
The incident occurred in Lai Kheda village under Tilhar police station area, where a wedding procession from Bareilly had arrived at a Dalit household on April 20.
According to SP Saurabh Dixit, when the procession was near the house of Rajpal Yadav, he allegedly made a remark saying "Now, Dalits will also take out wedding processions riding a buggy", leading to an argument. Yadav's side allegedly turned aggressive, escalating the conflict further.
Police said a scuffle ensued between the two sides. Upon receiving information, police personnel reached the spot and ensured that the procession was conducted peacefully after the incident.
An FIR was registered on Friday against Rajpal Yadav, Sumit, Amit, Surendra, Avdhesh Yadav and five unidentified persons based on a complaint. Rajpal Yadav and his son Sumit have been taken into custody and are being questioned, Dixit said.
The case has been registered under provisions of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS), 2023 and the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, police said.
Dixit said preliminary findings suggest that Yadav, too, was hosting a function and processions from both sides had arrived around the same time. A dispute may have initially arisen due to a narrow passage and attempts to move the processions quickly.
Police have registered the case under relevant sections of the BNS and initiated further probe, officials said.
