India's population to surpass that of China around 2027: UN report
Report says, india likely to add 273 million people between 2019 and 2050
United Nations, Jun 17: India, projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country around 2027, is expected to add nearly 273 million people between now and 2050 and will remain the most populated country through the end of the current century, a UN report said on Monday.
'The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights', published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said the world's population is expected to increase by two billion people in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050.
The world's population could reach its peak around the end of the current century, at a level of nearly 11 billion, according to the study, which presents the main results of the 26th round of the UN's global population estimates, projections and global demographic patterns.
The new report released here said that more than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just nine countries, led by India and followed by Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the US.
The report highlighted that "disparate population growth rates among the world's largest countries will re-order their ranking by size.
India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country around 2027, according to current projections made in the report.
"India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050, while the population of Nigeria is projected to grow by 200 million. Together, these two countries could account for 23 per cent of the global population increase to 2050," the report said.
Previous UN projections had estimated that India will surpass China as the world's most populous country as early as 2022. The 2017 world population report, released by the UN two years ago, had estimated that the population of India will surpass that of China's by around 2024. In its 24th round of estimates released in 2015, the UN had projected that India will become more populous than China by 2022.
China, with 1.43 billion people in 2019, and India, with 1.37 billion, have long been the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent, respectively, of the global total in 2019. They are followed by the United States of America, with 329 million in 2019, and Indonesia, with 271 million, the 2019 report said.
The report said that after this re-ordering between 2019 and 2050, the ranking of the five largest countries is projected to be preserved through the end of the century, when India could remain the world's most populous country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by China with just under 1.1 billion, Nigeria with 733 million, the US with 434 million, and Pakistan with 403 million inhabitants.
It further said that in 2019, around 40 per cent of the world's population lives in intermediate-fertility countries, where women have on average between 2.1 and four births over a lifetime.
Average lifetime fertility of 2.1 live births per woman is roughly the level required for populations with low mortality to have a growth rate of zero in the long run. Intermediate-fertility countries are found in many regions, with the largest being India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico, the Philippines and Egypt.
The report also confirmed that the world's population is growing older due to increasing life expectancy and falling fertility levels, and that the number of countries experiencing a reduction in population size is growing.
By 2050, one in six people in the world will be over age 65 (16 per cent), up from one in 11 in 2019 (9 per cent). The number of persons aged 80 years or over is projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050.
Global fertility rate, which fell from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, is projected to decline further to 2.2 in 2050. A fertility level of 2.1 births per woman is needed to ensure replacement of generations and avoid population decline over the long run in the absence of immigration.
UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said the report offers a road map indicating where to target action and interventions.
"Many of the fastest growing populations are in the poorest countries, where population growth brings additional challenges in the effort to eradicate poverty, achieve greater equality, combat hunger and malnutrition and strengthen the coverage and quality of health and education systems to ensure that no one is left behind."
A growing number of countries are experiencing a reduction in population size. Since 2010, 27 countries or areas have experienced a reduction of one per cent or more in the size of their populations, caused by sustained low levels of fertility.
In China, the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 per cent, between 2019 and 2050.
Further, life expectancy at birth for the world, which increased from 64.2 years in 1990 to 72.6 years in 2019, is expected to increase further to 77.1 years in 2050.
The report added that migration has become a major component of population change in some countries. Between 2010 and 2020, 14 countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while 10 countries will see a net outflow of similar magnitude.
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West Asia crisis: India flags energy supply concerns; PM speaks to leaders of Oman, Kuwait, Qatar
New Delhi (PTI): As the conflict in West Asia widened, India on Tuesday emphasised the interest of one crore Indian nationals in the region and voiced concern over consequences for the Indian economy due to possible disruptions in energy supplies, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed the evolving situation with leaders of Oman, Kuwait and Qatar.
In its second statement since the US-Israel strikes on Iran and Tehran's subsequent retaliation, India once again called for "dialogue and diplomacy" to end the conflict, noting that New Delhi has critical stakes in the security and stability of West Asia and the current developments "evoke great anxiety".
New Delhi said it will continue to closely monitor the evolving situation and take relevant decisions in the national interest, adding it is in touch with the governments in the region as well as other key partners.
"In recent days, we have not only witnessed an intensification of the conflict but also its spread to other nations. The destruction and deaths have mounted, even as normal life and economic activities come to a halt," the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said.
"As a proximate neighbour with critical stakes in the security and stability of the region, these developments evoke great anxiety."
The ministry said almost one crore Indian citizens are living in West Asia, and their safety and well-being are of "utmost priority" for New Delhi. "We cannot be impervious to any development that negatively affects them," it said.
The conflict in West Asia intensified with Iran continuing to pound several Gulf countries in retaliation for the joint attack against it by Israel and the US. The US and Israel have also carried out fresh strikes on Iran.
As part of its offensive, Iran has blocked the strategically located Strait of Hormuz shipping route, triggering a surge in global oil prices.
"Our trade and energy supply chains also traverse this geography. Any major disruption has serious consequences for the Indian economy," the ministry said.
The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 20 per cent of the world's total oil and gas supplies. About 50 per cent of India's oil imports, or roughly 2.6 million barrels a day, pass through the Strait.
Iran has carried out a wave of attacks mainly targeting Israel and American military bases in several Gulf countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
The Iranian retaliation increased after Tehran announced early Sunday that its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in the Israel-US strike.
"As a country whose nationals are prominent in the global workforce, India is also firmly opposed to attacks on merchant shipping. Already, some Indian nationals have lost their lives or are missing as a result of such attacks in the last few days," it said.
"In this background, India strongly reiterates its call for dialogue and diplomacy. We raise our voice clearly in favour of an early end to the conflict. Already, many lives have been regrettably lost, and we express our grief in that regard," it added.
It is learnt that at least three Indian nationals were killed in Iranian attacks on two merchant vessels in the waters off Oman.
The statement by the MEA, however, was silent on the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei.
The ministry said Indian embassies and consulates in the affected countries remain in close touch with Indian nationals and community organisations, issuing regular advisories.
"They have also extended all possible help to those stranded by the conflict. The embassies and consulates will continue to be proactive in addressing various consular aspects of this conflict," it said.
"We are in touch with the governments of this region as well as other key partners. The prime minister and external affairs minister have held discussions with their counterparts," it added.
Following his phone conversation with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, PM Modi said India stands "firmly" in solidarity with the Gulf nation and strongly condemns any violation of its "sovereignty and territorial integrity".
"We emphasised the urgent need to restore peace and stability in the region through dialogue and diplomacy. I also conveyed my appreciation for his continued support and care for the Indian community in Qatar during this challenging time," he said.
The prime minister described his phone conversation with the Crown Prince of Kuwait, Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah, as "productive" and conveyed to him that India condemns the violation of Kuwait's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
"We underscored the significance of dialogue and diplomacy in restoring regional peace and stability. Appreciated the Kuwaiti leadership's continued support to ensure the safety and well-being of the Indian community in Kuwait," Modi said on social media.
In his phone conversation with Oman Sultan Haitham bin Tariq, Modi "deeply appreciated" Oman's continued support for the Indian community.
"Condemned the violation of Oman's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
We agreed that sustained diplomatic engagement is essential for the earliest restoration of regional peace and stability," the prime minister said.
India issued the first statement on February 28, hours after the US and Israel launched the military offensives against Iran.
"We had expressed our deep concern at the cankar spoke to the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas and discussed the situation in West Asia. Our discussions focused on the ongoing conflict in Iran and the Gulf," Jaishankar said on X.
The US military has said six of its personnel were killed in the conflict so far. The US-Israeli strikes have killed at least 787 people, the Iranian Red Crescent Society said. According to reports, at least 11 people were killed in Israel.
In a related development, the Indian embassy in Iran has relocated most Indian students from Tehran.
"Due to the heightened risk perception in Tehran city, the Embassy of India has relocated most Indian students who were in Tehran," the Indian mission said.
The students were taken to locations outside of Tehran. The embassy arranged transportation, food and accommodation for the students.
