Study shows middle-age COVID-19 mortality risk
Paris: Middle-aged people, and not just the elderly, have a dramatically higher risk of dying or developing serious illness from COVID-19, new research from Britain showed on Tuesday.
The findings came in a new comprehensive analysis of virus cases in mainland China.
Researchers from Britain analysed more than 3,600 confirmed COVID-19 cases as well as data from hundreds of passengers repatriated from the outbreak city of Wuhan.
They found that age was a key determining factor in serious infections, with nearly one in five over-80s requiring hospitalisation, compared to around 1 per cent among people under 30.
Taking into account estimates of the number of cases that may not have been clinically confirmed -- that is, mild or asymptomatic infections -- the data showed the hospitalisation rate of patients in their fifties was 8.2 per cent.
The study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal, estimated that the mortality rate from confirmed COVID-19 cases in mainland China was 1.38 per cent.
If unconfirmed cases were taken into account, the death rate dropped to 0.66 per cent.
The authors of the research said that while this was significantly lower than previous estimates, COVID-19 is still several times deadlier than previous pandemic viruses, such as H1N1.
"Our estimates can be applied to any country to inform decisions around the best containment policies for COVID-19," said Azra Ghani, a study co-author from Imperial College London.
"There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention, but our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalisation is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal."
Billions of people have been confined to their homes around the world as governments desperately try to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus.
As of 1900 GMT Monday the virus had killed 36,374 people out of 757,940 cases globally. That would mean 4.8 per cent of all confirmed COVID-19 infections have proven deadly.
But experts stress that without widespread testing it is impossible to know how many people may have become infected and recovered. This means the true mortality rate is likely much lower, in line with The Lancet study and previous research from China.
The Lancet study showed that 18.4 per cent of patients in their 80s were hospitalised in China. This compared to 4.3 per cent for 40 to 49-year-olds and roughly 1 per cent for people in their 20s.
According to their modelling, the authors estimate that 50-80 per cent of the global population could contract COVID-19 -- but that came with several caveats, as modelling can't account for behavioural changes such as hand washing and social distancing.
Devi Sridhar, professor and chair of Global Public Health, at the University of Edinburgh's Medical School, said that the assumption that most people would become infected was leading governments, including in Britain, to abandon measures that could help slow the pandemic.
She tweeted on Tuesday that the models "resulted in the UK giving up on containment too early & assuming everyone will get it.
"Planning & preparing for unprecedented testing & using big data/apps for tracing were taken off the table. In my view, we went down the wrong path," she said.
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Putin meets Iran's FM Araghchi, says Russia ready to do its best to help bring peace to West Asia
Moscow (PTI): Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Monday met Russian President Vladimir Putin, who hailed the Iranian people for fighting bravely and heroically for their sovereignty and said Moscow is ready to do its best to help bring peace to West Asia as soon as possible.
Araghchi, who held talks with Omani and Pakistani leadership before arriving in Russia, met Putin in St. Petersburg and thanked him for supporting Iran, state-owned TASS news agency reported.
"Russia is ready to do everything in its power to ensure that peace in the Middle East is achieved as soon as possible," Putin said during his meeting with Araghchi, which was also attended by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Revealing that he received a message from Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei last week, Putin asked Araghchi to convey his "gratitude for this message and best wishes for his health and well-being."
He praised the Iranian people for fighting "bravely and heroically" for their sovereignty, Iran's state-run PRESS TV reported.
"We really hope that, based on the courage and desire for independence, the Iranian people, under the guidance of the new leader, will weather this difficult period of trials and peace will come,” Putin said.
He also stressed that Russia “intends to maintain” its strategic relations with Iran.
Araghchi said that the world witnessed Iran’s strength in countering the US during the recent war, and that the Islamic Republic is a "stable and powerful establishment."
"With their courage, the Iranian people succeeded in resisting the US aggression and will be able to endure it,” he said.
He said that it became clear that Iran has “great friends and allies” like Russia, and conveyed “warmest greetings” from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian to the Russian leader.
Araghchi said relations between Moscow and Tehran represent a “strategic partnership at the highest level” and will continue to develop "regardless of circumstances."
"We are grateful to you for the solid and strong positions in support of the Islamic Republic of Iran," he said.
Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the talks between President Putin and the Iranian Foreign Minister were "useful and constructive."
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov later said that Russia is "ready to provide any good offices, any mediation services that are acceptable to the parties."
"We will be ready to do everything so that ultimately peace ensues, guaranteed peace, and that there is no return to hostilities," Peskov was quoted as saying by TASS.
He was asked how Moscow can assist in future negotiations on the Iranian settlement.
Araghchi arrived in Russia after his whirlwind trip to Islamabad, which, according to him, was “very productive” and involved “good consultations" with Pakistan's Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, amid uncertainty over the second round of peace talks to resolve the war in West Asia.
"We held good consultations with our friends in Pakistan. The trip was successful. We assessed the outcome of our recent (meetings) and discussed in what direction and under what conditions talks can move on,” Araghchi said in a video posted on his Telegram channel upon his arrival in St Petersburg.
Referring to the second round of talks between the US and Iran to resolve the conflict in West Asia, Araghchi said: "Developments have taken place in the negotiations."
"Despite some progress in earlier rounds, the talks failed to reach their objectives due to the Americans' approach, the excessive demands they made, and the wrong approaches they adopted. Therefore, it was necessary to consult with our friends in Pakistan to review the latest situation,” Iran's official news agency IRNA quoted him as saying.
He said that the trip to Pakistan was a good opportunity to review developments related to the US-Israeli war against Iran, expressing confidence that “these consultations and coordination between the two countries will be highly significant.”
Araghchi arrived at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Airport early Monday, where he was welcomed by Russian officials and Iran’s ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, the report said.
The first round of peace talks between Iran and the US, held on April 11 and 12, failed to bring the desired result for the parties to the conflict.
The Iranian minister arrived in Islamabad for the second time on Sunday after a short visit to Oman, where he held talks with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said on security in the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic efforts to end the Iran-US conflict.
After Araghchi left Pakistan for Oman on Saturday, President Donald Trump announced that US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would no longer be going to Islamabad for talks with Iran, contending that Washington held all the cards on the matter.
Trump on Sunday reiterated that the US and Iranian officials can talk by phone for a peace solution to the conflict.
On Tuesday, Trump extended the two-week ceasefire with Iran indefinitely to give Tehran more time to prepare a unified proposal to end the war, just hours before the truce was set to expire.
The war began when the US and Israel jointly attacked Iran on February 28, killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several top commanders. The retaliation by the Islamic Republic extended the war to the entire Gulf region.
