Trump faces his most difficult Iran war decision: Will he deploy US troops to seize uranium?
Washington (AP): President Donald Trump is facing perhaps the most daunting question of the war with Iran, one that could define his time in office: Will he put US troops on the ground in Iran to secure some 970 pounds of enriched uranium that Tehran could potentially use to build nuclear weapons?
Trump has offered shifting reasons for launching the war, but he has been consistent in articulating that a primary objective in joining Israel in the military action is ensuring that Iran will “never have a nuclear weapon”.
The president has been more circumspect about how far he's willing to go to follow through on his pledge to destroy Iran's weapons programme once and for all, including seizing or destroying the near-bomb-grade nuclear material that Iran possesses.
Much of it is believed to be buried under the rubble of a mountain facility pummelled in US bombings Trump ordered last June that he had claimed “obliterated” Tehran's nuclear programme.
It's a risky, complicated project that many nuclear experts say cannot be done without a sizable deployment of US troops into Iran, a dangerous and politically fraught operation for the Republican president, who has vowed not to entangle the US in the sort of extended and bloody Middle East conflicts that still loom large on America's psyche.
At the same time, lawmakers and experts remain concerned that if Iran hard-liners emerge from the fighting, they'll be more motivated than ever to build nuclear weapons as they look to deter the US and Israel from future military action, a dynamic that makes taking control of Iran's enriched uranium even more critical.
That stockpile could allow Iran to build as many as 10 nuclear bombs, should it decide to weaponise its programme.
Some lawmakers, like Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., say they remain deeply fearful that the president has put the nation on a path that will require putting troops inside Iran for what he called Trump's confused and chaotic objectives.
“Some of the objectives that he continues to espouse simply cannot be achieved without a physical presence there -- securing the uranium cannot be done without a physical presence," said Blumenthal, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Meanwhile, Republican allies of Trump stress that there are plans in place to deal with the enriched uranium. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman James Risch, R-Idaho, on Wednesday cited “a number of plans that have been put on the table”. He declined to elaborate.
Others acknowledged the complications of deploying troops into Iran.
“No one has given me a briefing on how you would do it without boots on the ground,” said Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. “It doesn't mean you can't. But no one's ever briefed me about it.”
Scott added it's not tenable to allow the stockpile to remain: “I think it would be helpful to get rid of it.”
Trump and his advisers are rigidly obtuse
Nearly three weeks into a conflict that's left hundreds of people dead, tested longtime alliances and brought pain to the global economy, Trump and his top advisers have been rigidly obtuse about their deliberations over Iran's uranium stockpile.
“I'm not going to talk about that,” Trump said last week when asked about the enriched uranium. “But we have hit them harder than virtually any country in history has been hit, and we're not finished yet.”
Later that day, during an appearance in Kentucky, Trump appeared to claim the strikes had already neutralised the threat. “They don't have nuclear potential," he said.
Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters earlier this week that the administration sees no point in telegraphing “what we're willing to do or how far we're willing to go" while asserting "we have options, for sure.”
Experts say it's doable but won't be easy
Richard Goldberg, who served as director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction for the National Security Council during Trump's first term, said that seizing or destroying the enriched uranium is certainly doable, if the president decides to go that route.
The US and Israeli forces have been making strides toward creating the conditions — namely, establishing total air superiority — that would allow for special operations forces operators, who are trained in blowing up centrifuges and dealing with nuclear material, to conduct such an operation if the president decides to go that route.
To be certain, a troops-on-the-ground effort is expected to be far more complicated than other recent high-profile, lightning-strike insertion operations, such as the January capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro or the May 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden, Goldberg said. And the likely need to remove rubble to get to the canisters of enriched uranium adds another layer of complexity, because it would require heavy construction equipment.
"But if you actually own the airspace and you can have close air support and drones and everything else up in the sky for pretty wide perimeter, presumably you could do a lot,” said Goldberg, who is now a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank.
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi told reporters in Washington this week that the assumption is much of the enriched uranium remains in the trio of Iranian nuclear sites bombarded last year by the US.
“The impression we have … is that it hasn't been moved,” said Grossi, adding that a bulk of the material is beneath the rubble at Iran's Isfahan facility while lesser amounts are at the Natanz and Fordow facilities that were destroyed in last year's American strikes.
Testifying before a Senate committee on Wednesday, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard in her prepared remarks said the US attacks on Iran had “obliterated” Iran's nuclear enrichment programme and buried underground facilities.
Gabbard said the US has been monitoring whether Iran's leaders will try to restart its nuclear programme but said that they have not tried to rebuild their nuclear enrichment capability. She added that the clerical authority overseeing Iranian government has been degraded in Israel's strikes on its leadership but remains intact.
Brandan Buck, a senior foreign policy fellow at the Cato Institute, said that an effort to extract or dilute the enriched material would likely take more than 1,000 troops at each Iranian site and would take time to complete.
On the other hand, not acting to secure the enriched uranium also comes with risk. Should Iran's hard-liners remain in power, and with enriched material, they will now have greater motivation to build a nuclear weapon.
“Trump has put himself between a rock and a hard place,” Buck said. “Throughout this, he has had maximalist aims, but he's wanted to maintain minimal effort in order to keep the costs low.”
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CM Siddaramaiah alleges ‘criminal conspiracy’ in Sringeri recount, vows legal action
Bengaluru (PTI): Alleging a “criminal conspiracy” by BJP candidate D N Jeevaraj in the Sringeri Assembly poll recounting, Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah on Tuesday said the outcome was manipulated after valid postal ballot votes in favour of Congress leader T D Raje Gowda were tampered with during the recounting process.
Following a Karnataka High Court order on an election petition filed by Jeevaraj, challenging Raje Gowda’s election, the reverification and recounting were conducted on Saturday.
After the reverification and recount of postal ballots for the Sringeri Assembly constituency, votes polled in favour of Raje Gowda were reduced by 255, the returning officer said.
A report on the matter has been submitted to the Election Commission of India for further action, the officer added.
Congress leader Raje Gowda had won the 2023 Assembly polls from Sringeri by 201 votes, defeating his nearest rival Jeevaraj.
Addressing a press conference in Bengaluru, Siddaramaiah said the High Court had directed the recounting of postal ballots and that irregularities were noticed during the exercise conducted on May 2.
“This is a clear case of criminal conspiracy,” Siddaramaiah said, alleging that valid votes cast in favour of Raje Gowda were altered after being accepted by counting agents of all parties, including Congress, BJP, and JD(S).
He claimed that during the recounting of postal ballots, 255 votes were initially accepted as valid by all agents but were later tampered with by subordinate officials.
“There is a second mark on the votes polled in favour of Raje Gowda. They had accepted these as valid votes. Subsequently, another mark was made by officials. This is a clear case of criminal conspiracy,” he said.
When asked who was behind the alleged conspiracy, the CM replied, “It was hatched by Jeevaraj and others. It is planned.”
Siddaramaiah further alleged that the returning officer acted improperly by declaring the result despite the presence of an Election Commission observer during the recounting.
“Immediately after the counting, the returning officer announced the result. He should not have done so; this is against the law,” he said.
He pointed out that Raje Gowda had originally won by 201 votes, but after the recounting, the BJP candidate was declared the winner by 52 votes.
“The BJP has committed a criminal act of conspiracy. This is not vote chori but vote dacoity,” he alleged.
The CM said a police complaint had already been filed by Raje Gowda’s election agent, Sudhir Kumar, and emphasised the need for electoral integrity.
“We want transparency and free and fair elections. That is what our Constitution mandates,” he added.
Stating that the government would pursue legal remedies, Siddaramaiah said, “We are preparing an appeal challenging the returning officer’s announcement in a court of law.”
Responding to a separate query on elections in other states, the CM said there appeared to be an anti-incumbency factor in West Bengal, while results in Tamil Nadu were “surprising,” adding that Vijay’s party was emerging as the largest there.
Following the victory of party candidates in Bagalkote and Davanagere South, Siddaramaiah expressed confidence about future electoral prospects in Karnataka.
“Even in 2028, we will win the Assembly elections. We will come back,” the CM said.
Siddaramaiah added that he would order a forensic examination into the alleged tampering of postal ballots.
