World's population set to decline in next few decades for first time in centuries: Study
China's population could come down to 732 million from 1.4 billion currently
New York: The world’s population is for the first time in centuries, set to decline in the next few decades, a new study published in The Lancet has revealed.
The current population of the world is 7.8 billion people and it is expected to peak in the year 2064, according to the study. During the peak, the number is expected to go up to roughly 9.7 billion.
Following the peak, by the end of the century, the population will drop to 8.8 billion by 2100. The study further adds that the last time the global population declines was way back in the 14th century due to the Black Plague.
“The last time that global population declined was in the mid-14th century, due to the Black Plague. If our forecast is correct, it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine," Lead study author and Professor of Global Health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Stein Emil Vollset said.
The study has also predicted that the population of 23 countries could shrink by more than half. The countries include Japan, Thailand, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and South Korea.
Even the most populated country currently, China’s population can come down to 732 million in 2100 from 1.4 billion people currently.
"There are two key factors: improvements in access to modern contraception and the education of girls and women,” said Vollset.
“These factors drive the fertility rate – the average number of children a woman delivers over her lifetime which is the largest determinant of population. The global total fertility rate is predicted to steadily decline, from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100, well below the minimum rate (2.1 live births per woman) considered necessary to maintain population numbers," he added.
Dr. Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the Lancet, said in a statement: "The 21st century will see a revolution in the story of our human civilization. Africa and the Arab World will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence. By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers. This will truly be a new world, one we should be preparing for today."
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If Cong high command has to decide on leadership, they should do it before Feb: Parameshwara
Bengaluru (PTI): Karnataka Home Minister G Parameshwara on Tuesday said that if the Congress high command has to decide anything on the leadership issue, they should do it before the budget preparation in February.
He said, whether the leadership should be changed or not will be decided by the Congress high command.
"The budget preparation will begin in February, Roughly one more month. If the high command has to decide anything on this issue, they should decide before that," Parameshwara said in response to a question on the leadership issue.
Speaking to reporters here, he said, "Someone will have to prepare the budget, right? The budget has to be presented based on the assurance we have given to the people of the state. It will be done."
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To a question regarding some people staging a demonstration in Delhi, during the recent Congress Working Committee meeting, demanding that Prameshwara be made the CM, the Home minister said, "Those who say that Prameshwara should become CM, they would have said it out of affection towards me. How can I tell them not to say such things? You seem to be suggesting that I should tell them not to say such things."
On reports of a team of Congress leaders meeting AICC General Secretary K C Venugopal in Delhi, with a demand to make Parameshwara CM in case of leadership change, he said, "The Congress high command will have all the information. They will take information from the general secretary, and they also gather information in their own way."
"They know what has to be decided and when. Whether the leadership should be changed or not. All of this will be decided by them," he added.
Parameshwara, who had served as state Congress chief in the past, had himself last month said that he too was in the race to become the CM. Also, there has been demand for a "Dalit CM" within the Congress in case of leadership change, with Parameshwara as one of the prime contenders.
There have been speculations within the party circles too about Siddaramaiah's faction preferring Parameshwara or other senior leaders among them for the CM post, in case of any changes.
Asked about Congress MLA Iqbal Hussain's statement that there is a 200 per cent chance for Deputy CM D K Shivakumar to become the chief minister of the state on January 6 or 9, Parameshwara jokingly said, "Once Iqbal Hussain has said it is final. Whether I accept it or not is not the question."
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Amid the leadership issue, Siddaramaiah, on December 19, had asserted on the floor of the Assembly that he would continue in office. He had also said that the Congress high command was in his favour and asserted that no decision was made on his staying at the helm for only two-and-a-half years.
Reacting to this, Shivakumar had said that he and CM Siddaramaiah have come to an agreement with the involvement of the Congress high command, and both of them will abide by it.
