1 in next 5 years will breach 1.5 degrees Celsius climate threshold: WMO
New Delhi (PTI): There is an 80 per cent chance that one of the next five years will be at least 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than it was at the start of the industrial age, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Wednesday.
It also said there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, beating 2023 which is currently the warmest year.
There is a 47 per cent likelihood that the global temperature averaged over the entire five-year 2024-2028 period will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era, said the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Update.
Last year's report said there was a per cent chance of this happening during the 2023-2027 period.
The WMO said the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than the 1850-1900 baseline.
Countries in 2015 agreed to limit global average temperature rise to 'well below' 2 degrees Celsius and 'preferably' to 1.5 degrees Celsius to prevent further worsening of climate impacts such as droughts, extreme rain, floods, sea level rise, cyclones, heat waves etc.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of leading climate scientists, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 43 percent by 2030 (compared to 2019 levels) and at least 60 per cent by 2035 to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Earth’s global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.15 degrees Celsius compared to the average in 1850-1900 due to the rapidly increasing concentration of greenhouse gases - primarily carbon dioxide and methane - in the atmosphere.
According to European climate agency Copernicus, the global average temperature breached the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold for an entire year for the first time in January.
A permanent breach of the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit specified in the Paris Agreement, however, refers to long-term warming over many years.
According to a recent study by scientists at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, climate impacts could cost the global economy around USD 38 trillion a year by 2049, with countries least responsible for the problem and having minimum resources to adapt to impacts suffering the most.
The WMO said the chance (80 per cent) of at least one of the next five years exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius has risen steadily since 2015, when such a chance was close to zero.
For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 20 per cent chance of exceedance, and this increased to a 66 per cent chance between 2023 and 2027.
The world experienced the warmest April ever and the eleventh consecutive month of record-high temperatures, the WMO said last month.
Sea surface temperatures have been record high for the past 13 months, it said.
The WMO said this is happening due to naturally occurring El Nino -- unusual warming of waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean -- and the additional energy trapped in the atmosphere and ocean by greenhouse gases from human activities.
A new WMO Update predicts the development of a La Nina and a return to cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific in the near-term, but the higher global temperatures in the next five years reflect the continued warming from greenhouse gases.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: "We are playing Russian roulette with our planet."
"We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell. And the good news is that we have control of the wheel. The battle to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees will be won or lost in the 2020s - under the watch of leaders today."
The European Union-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service on Wednesday said that each of the past 12 months has set a new global temperature record for the time of year.
Given these 12 monthly records, the global average temperature for the last 12 months (June 2023 - May 2024) is also the highest on record, at 1.63 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, according to the Copernicus Climate Change ERA5 dataset.
"Behind these statistics lies the bleak reality that we are way off track to meet the goals set in the Paris Agreement," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
"We must urgently do more to cut greenhouse gas emissions, or we will pay an increasingly heavy price in terms of trillions of dollars in economic costs, millions of lives affected by more extreme weather and extensive damage to the environment and biodiversity."
"WMO is sounding the alarm that we will be exceeding the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency. We have already temporarily surpassed this level for individual months - and indeed as averaged over the most recent 12-month period. However, it is important to stress that temporary breaches do not mean that the 1.5 °C goal is permanently lost because this refers to long-term warming over decades," said Ko Barrett.
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Cong takes swipe at PM over India not being part of US-led 'Pax Silica' grouping
New Delh (PTI) The Congress on Saturday said it is perhaps not very surprising that India is not part of a US-led strategic initiative to build a secure silicon supply chain, given the "sharp downturn" in the Trump-Modi ties, and asserted that it would have been to "our advantage if we had been part of this group".
Congress general secretary in charge of communications Jairam Ramesh took a swipe at Prime Minister Narendra Modi, saying the news of India not being part of the group comes after the PM had enthusiastically posted on social media about a telephone call with his "once-upon-a-time good friend and a recipient of many hugs in Ahmedabad, Houston, and Washington DC".
In a lengthy post on X, Ramesh said, "According to some news reports, the US has excluded India from a nine-nation initiative it has launched to reduce Chinese control on high-tech supply chains. The agreement is called Pax Silica, clearly as a counter to Pax Sinica. The nations included (for the moment at least) are the US, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Australia."
"Given the sharp downturn in the Trump-Modi ties since May 10th, 2025, it is perhaps not very surprising that India has not been included. Undoubtedly, it would have been to our advantage if we had been part of this group."
"This news comes a day after the PM had enthusiastically posted on his telephone call with his once-upon-a-time good friend and a recipient of many hugs in Ahmedabad, Houston, and Washington DC," the Congress leader asserted.
The new US-led strategic initiative, rooted in deep cooperation with trusted allies, has been launched to build a secure and innovation-driven silicon supply chain.
According to the US State Department, the initiative called 'Pax Silica' aims to reduce coercive dependencies, protect the materials and capabilities foundational to artificial intelligence (AI), and ensure aligned nations can develop and deploy transformative technologies at scale.
The initiative includes Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Australia. With the exception of India, all other QUAD countries -- Japan, Australia and the US -- are part of the new initiative.
New Delhi will host the India-AI Impact Summit 2026 on February 19-20, focusing on the principles of 'People, Planet, and Progress'. The summit, announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the France AI Action Summit, will be the first-ever global AI summit hosted in the Global South.
Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump on Thursday discussed ways to sustain momentum in the bilateral economic partnership in a phone conversation amid signs of the two sides inching closer to firming up a much-awaited trade deal.
The phone call between the two leaders came on a day Indian and American negotiators concluded two-day talks on the proposed bilateral trade agreement that is expected to provide relief to India from the Trump administration's whopping 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods.
In a social media post, Modi had described the conversation as "warm and engaging".
"We reviewed the progress in our bilateral relations and discussed regional and international developments. India and the US will continue to work together for global peace, stability and prosperity," Modi had said without making any reference to trade ties.
