220 crore people in India, Pakistan to face deadly heat if global temperature rises by 2 deg C
New Delhi (PTI): If global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, around 2.2 billion (220 crore) people living in the Indus River Valley in northern India and eastern Pakistan may experience extended periods of heat that exceed human tolerance, according to a new research.
The research, published in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), indicates that in such a scenario, northern India, eastern Pakistan, eastern China and Sub-Saharan Africa would predominantly encounter high-humidity heatwaves.
Heatwaves with higher humidity levels can be more perilous because the air cannot efficiently absorb excess moisture. This limitation restricts the human body's ability to evaporate sweat and affects the moisture content of certain infrastructure like evaporative coolers.
These regions are also home to lower-to-middle income countries, meaning that many affected individuals may lack access to air-conditioning or effective ways to mitigate the adverse health effects of extreme heat, the researchers explained.
Humans can endure specific combinations of heat and humidity, but when these thresholds are surpassed, individuals become susceptible to heat-related health issues, including heatstrokes or heart attacks. With climate change driving global temperatures upward, billions of people could find themselves pushed beyond these limits.
The Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by approximately 1.15 degrees Celsius, with the rise closely linked to the release of carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily by developed countries, into the atmosphere since the onset of the industrial revolution.
In 2015, 196 countries signed the Paris Agreement, aiming to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
However, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an organisation composed of the world's leading climate scientists, the world is on course for a temperature increase of around 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century under a business-as-usual scenario.
The IPCC emphasises that to avert extreme, destructive and likely irreversible effects of climate change, the world must cut emissions by half by 2030 compared to the 2019 levels to limit the rise in the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels.
According to global agencies, the last four months (June, July, August and September) have been the hottest on record, with 2023 poised to become the warmest year ever.
The research team conducted modelling for global temperature increases ranging from 1.5 degrees Celsius to 4 degrees Celsius, the latter considered a worst-case scenario where warming would accelerate. This allowed them to identify areas where warming would lead to heat and humidity levels surpassing human tolerance.
"To understand how complex real-world problems like climate change will affect human health, you need expertise in both planetary science and human physiology," said co-author W Larry Kenney, professor of physiology and kinesiology and the Marie Underhill Noll Chair in Human Performance at the Pennsylvania State University.
The research suggests that the ambient wet-bulb temperature limit for young, healthy individuals is approximately 31 degrees Celsius, as indicated in a study published last year by Penn State researchers. However, the specific threshold for any individual at a given moment also depends on factors, such as exertion level and other environmental variables, including wind speed and solar radiation.
In recorded human history, instances of temperatures and humidity exceeding human limits have been limited and occurred only briefly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, according to the researchers.
If global warming continues to reach 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the researchers argue that areas such as the Eastern Seaboard and the middle of the United States -- from Florida to New York and from Houston to Chicago -- would begin to experience heat and humidity levels exceeding human tolerance. South America and Australia would also face extreme heat at this level of warming.
While the United States is projected to experience more heatwaves at current warming levels, these heatwaves are not expected to consistently exceed human limits as frequently as in other parts of the world.
To halt the rising temperatures, the researchers stress the need for significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Without these changes, middle-income and low-income countries are likely to be the hardest hit, the researchers cautioned.
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Mamata visits Bhabanipur EVM strong room, warns against counting irregularities
Kolkata (PTI): West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee early Friday warned against any attempt to tamper with the counting process, hours after she visited an EVM strong room in Bhabanipur, alleging possible malpractice.
Banerjee, who emerged around 12:07 am after spending nearly four hours at the counting centre for her Bhabanipur constituency housed in Sakhawat Memorial School in south Kolkata, said only one person would be allowed inside the designated counting area.
"Either the candidate or one agent can stay upstairs. I have also suggested installation of a CCTV camera for the media," she told reporters.
Stressing the need for transparency, she said, "It is essential to maintain transparency. People’s votes must be protected. I rushed here after receiving complaints. The central forces initially did not allow me to enter."
Sounding a stern note ahead of the May 4 counting, she added, "If there is any plan to tamper with the counting process, it will not be tolerated."
On Thursday evening, Banerjee had reached the Bhabanipur Assembly segment counting centre, which houses the strong room for EVMs used in the April 29 polling, citing suspicion of tampering with the machines.
She entered the premises along with her election agent and remained inside for hours, even as Kolkata Mayor and TMC candidate from the Kolkata Port segment Firhad Hakim reached the spot but could not meet her.
"I reached here upon learning that the chief minister has arrived. But I couldn’t meet her since she was already inside the premises, exercising her right as a candidate to visit strong rooms. I wasn’t allowed there. I will not be able to confirm what exactly is transpiring inside," Hakim said.
The development coincided with protests by TMC candidates Kunal Ghosh and Shashi Panja outside the Khudiram Anushilan Kendra in north Kolkata, where they staged a sit-in alleging irregularities and possible tampering of EVMs stored in strong rooms, leading to face-offs between TMC and BJP supporters.
Earlier in a video message, Banerjee had urged party leaders, workers and polling agents to maintain a 24-hour vigil on EVM strong rooms, alleging that the BJP could attempt to tamper with the machines before counting begins.
Her remarks come amid heightened political tension in the state following a fiercely contested Assembly election, with parties closely monitoring arrangements and raising concerns over transparency.
