3rd wave possible if vaccination not ramped up, COVID norms not followed: Scientist
New Delhi, May 19: If the vaccination drive against coronavirus is not ramped up and COVID-19 appropriate-behaviour is not maintained, there is a possibility of a third wave of the pandemic in 6-8 months, said M Vidyasagar, a scientist involved in the Sutra Model which uses mathematics to project the trajectory of COVID-19.
He, however, stressed the Sutra model has not predicted any third wave and it is working on it.
The IIT-Hyderabad professor cited a paper by Italian researchers on infected people with decreasing antibodies, which give some sort of immunity, in six months.
"If the antibodies are lost, then there is a chance of immunity going down. In this case, vaccination has to be ramped up and COVID-19 appropriate-behaviour must be practiced. If not then there is a possibility of a third wave in 6-8 months," Vidyasagar said.
"We are also adding the aspects of immunity and vaccination in our model for our future forecasts," he added.
According to a study by the San Raffaele hospital in Milan, antibodies against coronavirus remained in the blood of patients with COVID-19 for at least eight months after they were infected.
A recent sero-survey by the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology (IGIB) suggested that the neutralising antibodies declined significantly after five-six months, making people prone to reinfections.
The coronavirus cases in the country peaked in September 2020 and there was a nationwide decline of new cases starting in October.
"Using more stringent measures (more than 30 per cent inhibition of surrogate receptor-spike protein binding), the loss of neutralisation may be even higher.
"We speculate that this may be related to recurrence of outbreaks in March 2021, after the peak in September 2020," the IGIB paper said on the second wave that started raging from late March and has claimed thousands of lives since then.
K VijayRaghavan, Principal Scientific Adviser, had said on May 5 that as the virus mutates further, a third wave of COVID infection is inevitable and it is necessary to be prepared for new waves.
Two days later he said there may not be a third wave of coronavirus in the country, if strong measures are taken and effectively implemented at the state, district and city-level.
"If we take strong measures, the third wave may not happen in all places or indeed anywhere at all. It depends on much how effectively guidance is implemented at the local level in the states, districts and cities everywhere.
"The guidance about precautions, about surveillance, about containment, about treatment and about tests. This insidious asymptomatic transmission can be stopped if we follow the guidelines. This sounds difficult, it is difficult and we can and must do it," VijayRagahvan had said in a press briefing.
Let the Truth be known. If you read VB and like VB, please be a VB Supporter and Help us deliver the Truth to one and all.
Allahabad HC orders probe into 'reinstatement' of teacher in UP's Barabanki
Lucknow (PTI): The Lucknow Bench of the Allahabad High Court on Friday ordered a probe by the special task force (STF) into alleged irregularities in the rejoining of a teacher at City Intermediate College in Barabanki, observing that the reinstatement appeared to be prima facie illegal.
The court also directed the recovery of the salary paid to the teacher during the disputed period.
A bench of Justice Rajeev Singh passed the order on a petition filed by the college management committee. The court expressed doubts over the roles of the District Inspector of Schools (DIOS), Barabanki, the college principal and the teacher concerned and hence, directed a detailed inquiry into the matter.
Taking note of alleged manipulation of records and misleading submissions, the court ordered the immediate transfer of the Barabanki DIOS to ensure a fair probe. It also directed the initiation of disciplinary proceedings against the then joint director of education of the Ayodhya division.
In its order, the court found that the teacher, Abhay Kumar, was initially appointed as an assistant teacher in 2018 but joined an Eklavya Model Residential School in Chhattisgarh as a lecturer in June 2024 without obtaining permission from the management. His subsequent request to retain the lien was rejected.
Despite this, he was allowed to rejoin the Barabanki College in September 2025 on the directions of the joint director of education and the DIOS, and was even paid the salary for October 2025. The court termed the rejoining "wholly illegal" and lacking any legal basis.
The bench also expressed concern over lapses in communication within the education department and directed the Uttar Pradesh chief secretary to ensure that official orders are communicated through email and WhatsApp as well, to prevent disputes.
The matter is next listed for hearing on May 28 when a compliance report is sought.
