Budget for world's fastest-growing economy: Key numbers to be watched
New Delhi (PTI): Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her 7th straight Budget on Tuesday that would lay a roadmap for Viksit Bharat (developed India) by 2047, while giving a glimpse of the Modi government's performance in the past 10 years.
All eyes will be on whether Sitharaman provides the much-expected tax relief for the middle class, leaving more money in their hands, as there is tax buoyancy. Besides, the market also expects staying on the fiscal glide path to lower the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26.
Sitharaman, who would be presenting her seventh straight budget, had in her first Budget in 2019 replaced the leather briefcase -- which had been in use for decades for carrying Budget documents -- with a traditional 'bahi-khata' wrapped in red cloth. This year's Budget would be in paperless form, as done in the last three years.
Here are the key numbers to watch out for the first full Budget of Modi 3.0:
* Fiscal Deficit: The budgeted fiscal deficit, which is the difference between the government expenditure and income, for the current fiscal is 5.1 per cent as projected in the Interim Budget in February, against 5.8 per cent in the last fiscal year. The full Budget is expected to provide better-than-earlier projections as there has been tax buoyancy.
The government has projected fiscal deficit at 4.5 per cent of the GDP in FY26.
* Capital Expenditure: The government's planned capital expenditure for this fiscal year is budgeted at Rs 11.1 lakh crore, higher than Rs 9.5 lakh crore in the last fiscal year. The government has been pushing infrastructure creation and also incentivising states to step up capex.
* Tax Revenue: The Interim Budget had pegged gross tax revenue at Rs 38.31 lakh crore for 2024-25, an 11.46 per cent growth over the last fiscal. This includes Rs 21.99 lakh crore estimated to come from direct taxes (personal income tax + corporate tax), and Rs 16.22 lakh crore from indirect taxes (customs + excise duty + GST).
* GST: Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection in 2024-25 is estimated to rise to Rs 10.68 lakh crore, an increase of 11.6 per cent. The tax revenue figures will have to be watched out for in the final Budget for the 2024-25 fiscal year.
* Borrowing: The government's gross borrowing Budget was Rs 14.13 lakh crore in the current financial year as per the Interim Budget. The government borrows from the market to fund its fiscal deficit. The borrowing number will be watched by the market, especially on the back of more-than-expected dividend from the RBI and financial institutions.
* Nominal GDP: India's nominal GDP growth (real GDP plus inflation) in the current fiscal year is estimated to be 10.5 per cent to Rs 327.7 trillion as per the Interim Budget. In view of the expected normal monsoon, improvement in revenue collections and pick up in rural consumption, is expected that there could be an upward revision in growth estimate. Real GDP growth in the current fiscal is projected at 7.2 per cent, as per the RBI.
* Dividend: The interim Budget had projected Rs 1.02 lakh crore from RBI and financial institutions. This will be revised upwards as the RBI has already made surplus transfer of Rs 2.11 lakh crore earlier in May.
At the same time, Rs 43,000 crore is expected to be garnered from Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs).
* Spotlight would also be on spending on key schemes like NREGA as well as key sectors like health and education.
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Sringeri postal ballot recount: Cong MLA Raje Gowda’s tally reduced by 255 votes
Chikkamagaluru (Karnataka) (PTI): After the reverification and recount of postal ballots for the Sringeri Assembly constituency, votes polled for Congress MLA T D Raje Gowda were reduced by 255, the returning officer said.
A report on the matter has been submitted to the Election Commission for further decision, he said.
Following a Karnataka High Court order on the election petition filed by BJP’s defeated candidate D N Jeevaraj challenging Raje Gowda’s election, the reverification and recounting took place on Saturday and continued until midnight.
Raje Gowda had won the 2023 Assembly polls from Sringeri by 201 votes.
“The High Court on April 6 had ordered reverification and recounting. As per that order, the exercise has been completed. The court order did not direct us to announce the results; it also did not refer to EVM votes. The order was specific only to postal ballots,” returning officer Gaurav Kumar Shetty said.
Speaking to reporters late on Saturday night, he said, “During the 2023 vote counting, Jeevaraj had received 692 votes, while Raje Gowda had received 569 votes. Now, after reverification and recounting, Jeevaraj has 690 valid votes, which is two votes less than earlier, while Raje Gowda has 314 votes, a difference of 255 votes.”
After the reverification and recounting as per the court order, the strong room was sealed, and a report was sent to the Election Commission.
The returning officer said that as per Election Commission rules, there are clear guidelines on how to accept or reject a vote, and the procedure was followed accordingly.
Regarding allegations of vote tampering, he said the allegations are criminal in nature and do not fall under his jurisdiction.
Jeevaraj, speaking to reporters, said, “As per the current count, I have the majority. Officials have said that the Election Commission will make the formal announcement. I will wait for the Commission’s order.”
Raje Gowda expressed doubts about “vote tampering” and demanded a detailed inquiry into Jeevaraj and others. He said he would file a case in this regard.
“There are markings on the ballots polled in my favour. Different ink has been used; it is clearly visible. During the 2023 counting, all those ballots were deemed valid in the presence of counting agents of all parties. Now, such votes have been declared invalid, bringing down my tally,” he told reporters.
Raje Gowda and his supporters had earlier celebrated on Saturday, claiming the results were in their favour.
Meanwhile, Deputy Chief Minister and state Congress president D K Shivakumar on Sunday alleged a “big conspiracy” in Sringeri.
Speaking to reporters in Bengaluru, he said the Congress would take up the matter legally and would pursue all possible steps from the government.
“No one can imagine that they (the BJP) will indulge in such criminal activity. This is evidence of how former MLA Jeevaraj misused officials close to him. I have received a report, and I am studying it. It is systematic criminal activity. I will go through the report and take further action. I had been watching developments overnight,” he added.
State BJP president B Y Vijayendra said that, as per his information, the Congress was pressuring officials not to declare the results.
Speaking to reporters in Tumakuru, he said, “Jeevaraj, after losing the election, went to court. Now, after the High Court order, recounting has happened, and Jeevaraj has won by 56 votes. There appears to be a conspiracy by the ruling Congress to delay the announcement of results to allow Raje Gowda time to approach the High Court.”
Jeevaraj has already faced “injustice” for about three years by being denied the MLA post, Vijayendra said. “The injustice should not continue, and the Congress should accept the mandate of the people.”
Leader of Opposition R Ashoka accused the Congress and its leader, Rahul Gandhi, of “vote theft.”
“The Congress, which has been illegitimately enjoying power in the Sringeri Assembly seat for the past three years, now faces humiliation. This is not merely the victory of one individual; it is the victory of democracy. It is a hard-earned triumph for the value of the votes cast by Sringeri’s voters,” he posted on X, congratulating Jeevaraj.
