COVID-19 spread may spike in monsoon, winter with fall in temperatures: IIT-AIIMS study
Bhubaneswar: A study conducted jointly by researchers at IIT-Bhubaneswar and the AIIMS here has shown that the spread of COVID-19 may pick up pace during peak monsoon and winter with a fall in the mercury.
The rainfall, decrease in temperatures and cooling of the atmosphere coupled with progression towards winter may environmentally favour the spread of COVID-19 in the country, according to the study led by V Vinoj, Assistant Professor of the School of Earth, Ocean and Climatic Sciences at IIT-Bhubaneswar.
The report titled "COVID-19 spread in India and its dependence on temperature and relative humidity" took into account the pattern of the coronavirus outbreak and the number of such cases in 28 states between April and June.
The study revealed that the rise in temperatures leads to a decline in the transmission of the virus, Vinoj said.
"The study, which is in its pre-print stage, shows that the temperature and relative humidity have a significant impact on the disease growth rate and doubling time.
"It suggests that a one-degree-Celsius rise in temperature leads to a 0.99 per cent decrease in cases and increases the doubling time by 1.13 days, implying a slowdown of the virus spread," he told PTI.
The study also found that an increase in relative humidity tends to decrease the growth rate and doubling time of coronavirus cases by 1.18 days.
The researchers, however, said since the study was not conducted during the period of high humidity starting from the monsoon and the onset of winter, more research needs to be undertaken to establish its exact impact.
Dr. Bijayini Behera of the department of Microbiology at AIIMS Bhubaneswar, who was part of the research team, said several studies suggested that a fall in the temperatures and a relatively low humidity facilitated such an outbreak in the past.
The study also carried out an analysis of the impact of solar radiation on the spread of COVID-19.
"We found that a higher surface-reaching solar radiation leads to a reduction in the number of infections and an increase in the doubling time of cases, similar to that of temperatures," Vinoj said.
There is an average temperature difference of seven degrees Celsius between the winter and summer seasons, he added.
According to the study, there is a likelihood of an increased transmission of the coronavirus during winter, which may be a major challenge for health workers and policymakers to enforce mitigation and control measures.
The objective of the study is to help authorities bring effective measures to combat the pandemic, Vinoj said.
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Karnataka rolls out climate action plan to tackle global warming: Minister Khandre
Bengaluru (PTI): Minister Eshwar Khandre on Tuesday said that a Karnataka state action plan on climate change has been formulated to mitigate the impact of global warming and climate change, and directions have been issued to ensure its proper implementation.
Speaking after presiding over a seminar on extreme heat and its impact on Bengaluru, organised by the Karnataka Media Academy, he said the Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute (EMPRI), which comes under the environment department, has taken steps to implement the action plan in coordination with various state government departments.
He said training programmes are being organised in cooperation with zilla panchayat offices for district officials and other related institutions regarding the implementation and progress of the Karnataka state action plan on climate change.
The Forest, Ecology and Environment minister said such programmes will be conducted in all 31 districts of Karnataka.
According to a statement issued by the minister’s office, in terms of climate resilience, Khandre said a dedicated radio programme, “Havamaana Mitra” (weather friend), was launched in April 2025 to share information on best practices, and 24 programmes have so far been broadcast on Akashvani.
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He said these efforts aim to create public awareness.
Khandre emphasised that due to global warming and climate change, even seasons are changing today.
“Keeping this in mind, after becoming Forest Minister, I have been making every effort to increase green cover, especially in Bengaluru city,” he said.
He noted that during the last three years, about 11 crore saplings have been planted in the state, and information on their survival rate has been made available on the Forest Department website.
According to him, encroachments on about 250 acres of forest land worth around Rs 10,000 crore in several parts of Bengaluru, including Kothanur, Kadugodi, B M Kaval, and Turahalli, have been cleared.
Thousands of saplings have been planted and groves created on the cleared land, thereby preserving lung spaces essential for Bengaluru city.
The minister also recalled that more than 400 acres of forest land in Peenya plantation had earlier been allotted to the central government-owned HMT for industrial purposes.
He said HMT had sold 160 acres of this land, while 280 acres remain, and a decision has been taken to reclaim it for the department to preserve an essential lung space for Bengaluru. A legal battle is underway, and the case is currently in the Supreme Court.
In addition, he said 444 acres in the Jarakabande area had been allotted to the Indian Air Force. Under the Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980, forest land cannot be diverted without due process. Hence, in 2017, the then Deputy Commissioner cancelled the land allotment.
“Steps are now being taken to reclaim this forest land and preserve the green space,” he said.
Khandre also highlighted that the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Gantiganahalli, where the international air show is held once every two years in Bengaluru, is on forest land.
He said 159 acres in Gantiganahalli village is classified as a reserved forest area.
“If the Air Force submits a proposal for diversion and provides alternative land, this area may be considered for transfer; otherwise, steps will be taken to reclaim it for the forest department,” he said.
“The Indian Air Force is presently using this area as a runway. However, the RTC and mutation records are in the name of the Forest Department, and the land has not been legally converted. Hence, this forest land will be reclaimed,” he said.
He added that the government has resolved to construct a major biological park on 153 acres at Madappanahalli in Bengaluru North taluk, and cabinet approval has been obtained.
“The CM will lay the foundation stone next month. This will be the largest park after Lalbagh and Cubbon Park. It would not be incorrect to call this an achievement of the century,” he said.
