Deep depression in Arabian Sea intensifies, cyclone 'Vayu' may hit Gujarat coast Thursday: IMD
New Delhi: A deep depression over the Arabian Sea which brewed over the past two days has intensified into a cyclonic storm and is likely to hit the Gujarat coast on June 13 morning, the India Meteorological Department said Tuesday.
Cyclone 'Vayu' is further likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm in the next the 24 hours, the Cyclone Warning Division of the IMD said in a bulletin issued at 8 am Tuesday.
"It is very likely to move nearly northward and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva around Veraval and Diu region as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speed 110-120 kilometres per hour gusting to 135 kilometres per hour during early morning of June 13," the bulletin said.
The India Meteorological Department has issued a warning of heavy rains and high winds at a speed of over 110 kilometres on June 13 and 14 in coastal areas of Saurashtra and Kutch.
The Gujarat government is on high alert. It deployed National Disaster Response Force personnel in the coastal areas of Saurashtra and Kutch on Tuesday morning.
It has advised fishermen against venturing into the sea in the next few days while ports have been directed to flag a danger signal.
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Rs 30,000 cr loss a month: Oil companies bleed as fuel prices on hold amid global energy spike
New Delhi (PTI): About Rs 700-1,000 crore loss per day. Rs 30,000 crore every month. India's state oil companies are quietly absorbing a massive financial hit to keep petrol, diesel and LPG prices unchanged even as global energy markets face a turmoil that is bigger than all previous crises combined.
While countries from Japan to United Kingdom have raised petrol and diesel prices by up to 30 per cent since the start of the West Asia conflict, fuel prices in India continue at two-year-old levels.
The war disrupted India's import of 40 per cent of crude oil (raw material for making petrol and diesel), 90 per cent cooking gas LPG and 65 per cent natural gas (used to generate electricity, make fertilizer, turned into CNG and piped to household kitchens for cooking), but state-owned oil companies have maintained uninterrupted fuel supplies with no rationing or shortage at any point in the last 10 weeks.
But this has come at a cost - Rs 30,000 crore under-recovery or loss every month for the three oil marketing companies - Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.
The under-recoveries - the gap between input costs and realised retail prices - rose sharply in March/April before tapering a bit. Daily under-recoveries during April were estimated at about Rs 18 per litre on petrol and Rs 25 per litre on diesel, translating into average losses of Rs 700-1,000 crore a day for OMCs, they said.
At a news briefing on developments in West Asia, Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, said prices in the international markets, on which India relies to meet 88 per cent of its oil needs, have been volatile and supplies impacted.
Crude oil prices which were around USD 70 per barrel two months ago, are now at USD 120, she said. "It has been government's endeavour to keep prices stable so far and that there is no price increase for consumers," she said. "This has hit finances of OMCs... monthly under-recoveries are of the order of Rs 30,000 crore."
She, however, refused to say if retail petrol and diesel prices will continue to hold.
"As I said, the endeavour so far has been to see that there is no price increase," she said.
The three oil marketing companies (OMCs) have worked overtime to keep the supply lines running even when demand spiked due to panic buying.
The government intervention included excise duty reductions and absorption of part of the fuel cost burden. The special additional excise duty on petrol was cut to Rs 3 per litre from Rs 13, while excise duty on diesel was reduced to zero from Rs 10 per litre.
The under-recoveries would have swelled to nearly Rs 62,500 crore had the government not cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each.
The government, Sharma said, has taken a hit of Rs 14,000 crore a month in cutting the excise duty.
The Centre's effective absorption at peak crude prices was estimated at around Rs 24 per litre for petrol and Rs 30 per litre for diesel.
The February 28 strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran triggered a sharp escalation in West Asia tensions. Energy prices surged as the conflict widened and shipping risks intensified in the Strait of Hormuz - the shipping lane through which India and other countries imported crude oil, LPG and natural gas from Gulf countries. Tanker movement was disrupted.
The companies also faced additional costs from emergency crude sourcing, higher freight charges due to vessel diversions, elevated marine insurance premiums and refinery optimisation expenses. Despite these pressures, fuel and LPG supplies remained uninterrupted across the country.
The surge in crude prices and the decision to shield consumers from higher retail prices placed significant strain on OMC balance sheets and refining margins, sources said.
They added that the measures reflected a policy decision to prioritise consumer stability and economic continuity during a global energy shock.
Sources warned that a prolonged period of elevated crude prices could lead to higher working capital borrowings and force some recalibration of capital expenditure plans. However, investments linked to refining expansion, energy security infrastructure, ethanol blending, biofuels and transition fuels would continue with government backing, they said.
India's approach contrasted with measures adopted by several other economies, where fuel prices rose sharply after the conflict-driven energy shock.
Petrol prices increased by about 34 per cent in Spain, 30 per cent in Japan, Italy and Israel, 27 per cent in Germany and 22 per cent in the United Kingdom, according to estimates. Several countries also introduced rationing, conservation advisories, emergency relief packages or fuel caps.
In India, petrol prices remained Rs 94.77 per litre and diesel at Rs 87.67, with no rationing, mobility restrictions or supply disruptions, they added.
Sharma said the revenues that OMCs earn are used to buy crude oil, build infrastructure to process it into fuel and create channels that will take the fuel to consumers.
Their capex spending is all dependent on the revenues they earn, she added.
