Economy close to collapse, fear in country: Chidambaram
New Delhi: Former finance minister P Chidambaram on Monday tore into the Modi government's handling of the economy, saying it was close to collapse and was been attended by "very incompetent doctors."
Initiating the debate on the Union Budget for 2020-21, he said rising unemployment and falling consumption was making India poorer.
The economy, he said, is facing demand constraints and is investment starved. The economy is facing fall in consumption and rising unemployment. "Fear and uncertainty prevails in the country," he added.
He said the chief economic advisor to the BJP government for four years, Arvind Subramanian has stated that the economy is in the ICU. But "I would say the patient has been kept out of ICU and incompetent doctors are looking at the patient," Chidambaram said.
"It is dangerous to have a patient out of ICU and being looked upon by incompetent doctors. What is the point standing around and chanting slogan 'Sab ka saath, sab ka vishwas'," he said, adding every competent doctor the Modi government could ever identify has left the country.
His said a list of such people included former RBI governor Raghurman Rajan, former CEA Arvind Subramanian, former RBI governor Urjit Patel and former NITI Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya.
"Who are your doctors, I want to know," he said, adding the government considers Congress as untouchable and doesn't think of any good about the rest of the opposition and so doesn't consult them.
Chidambaram charged that instead of putting money in the hands of people, the Modi government "put money in hands of 200 corporates" by way of corporate tax.
He said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her 160- minute budget speech did not talk of the economy and its management.
"You are living in echo chambers. You want to hear your own voice," he said. Listing problems with the Modi government, Chidambaram said it refuses to admits in mistakes, lives in denial and has predispositions.
The demonetisation of old 1000 and 500 rupee notes as well as hurried implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) are "monumental blunders" that ruined the economy, he said, adding the Modi regime is predisposed to protectionism, a 'strong' rupee and is against bilateral and multilateral agreements.
"It is living in denial," he said, adding the economic growth has fallen for hereto unseen six consecutive quarters.
He wondered on the narrative Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman was trying to give after reading out a 160-minute budget speech with few pages left unread.
Her budget neither made any reference to the Economic Survey nor picked up a single idea from it, he said.
Chidambaram, who is credited with presenting a 'dream budget' more than two decades back, said the GDP growth has declined for six consecutive quarters, agriculture is growing by just 2 per cent, while consumer price inflation has risen from 1.9 per cent in January 2019 to 7.4 per cent in a matter of 11 months.
Also, food inflation is at 12.2 per cent. Bank credit is growing 8 per cent with non-food credit rising by 7-8 per cent and credit to industry by just 2.7 per cent. Credit to agriculture has declined from 18.3 per cent to 5.3 per cent and that for MSMEs from 6.7 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
Overall industrial index showed just 0.6 per cent growth. "Every major industry is either near zero or in negative zone," he said, adding thermal power plants are operating at just 55 per cent of the capacity as factories have either closed or are on the verge of closure.
"That gives you a good picture of the state of economy. You don't require MRI," he said. "You are in management for six years. How long can you blame previous managers."
He charged the government with burying unfavourable reports such as the labour survey that put unemployment at 45 -year high of 6.1 per cent at end of 2017-18. Also, consumer expenditure has falling to 3.7 per cent between 2011-12 and 2017-18.
Drilling holes in Budget numbers, he said the 2019-20 budget projected a nominal GDP growth of 12 per cent but ended with just 8.5 per cent. Fiscal deficit was targeted to be shrunk to 3.3 per cent of the GDP but ended by at 3.8 per cent and in the next fiscal it is being targeted at 3.5 per cent.
Revenue deficit was targeted at 2.3 per cent in fiscal ending March 31, 2020 but ended up at 2.4 per cent and in the next it will rise to 2.8 per cent, he said, adding capital expenditure in the next fiscal will shrink to 0.7 per cent from 1.4 per cent in the current.
Net tax revenue in the current fiscal was targeted at Rs 16.49 lakh crore but only Rs 9 lakh crore was collected in first nine months till December 2019 and "you want us to believe this will rise to Rs 15 lakh crore by March 2020," he said.
Similarly, expenditure in 2019-20 was pegged at Rs 27.86 lakh crore but only Rs 11.78 lakh crore spent during April- December and by March this is projected to rise to Rs 27 lakh crore.
"You have no money to spend... and these are masked by numbers," he said. "Numbers are not easily acceptable or believable."
Chidambaram said the government is facing shortfall in all forms of taxes - Rs 1.56 lakh crore on corporate tax, Rs 10,000 crore on personal income tax, Rs 30,000 crore on customs, Rs 52,000 crore on excise and Rs 51,000 crore on GST.
This despite "the extraordinary powers" and "all kinds of power" given to lower level tax officials, he said.
He read of list of heads under which allocation has fallen - food subsidy, agriculture, PM-Kisan, rural roads, mid-day meal scheme, ICDS, skill development, Ayushman Bharat, rural development and MGNEGA.
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India, Ethiopia elevate ties to strategic partnership as PM Modi holds talks with his counterpart
Addis Ababa (PTI): India and Ethiopia on Tuesday elevated their historical ties to a strategic partnership, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi held wide-ranging talks with his Ethiopian counterpart Abiy Ahmed Ali during which they discussed issues of bilateral and mutual interest.
Modi, who arrived here from Jordan on his maiden bilateral visit, was accorded a ceremonial welcome at the National Palace ahead of the bilateral talks, reflecting the vibrant India-Ethiopia relations rooted in shared history and a promising future.
"We are elevating India and Ethiopia relations to a strategic partnership. This step will provide new energy, new momentum and new depth to our ties," Prime Minister Modi said during the delegation-level talks.
He thanked PM Ali for his support in India's fight against terrorism. "The support of friendly countries in this struggle against terrorism holds great significance," Modi said.
"Today, we got the opportunity to deliberate on the key aspects of our cooperation, such as economy, innovation, technology, defence, health, capacity-building and multilateral cooperation. I am pleased that today, we have decided to double the student scholarship for Ethiopia in India," Modi said.
Modi said that India and Ethiopia have shared contact, dialogue, and exchange for thousands of years. The two countries, which are rich in languages and traditions, are symbols of unity in diversity, he added.
"Both countries are democratic powers committed to peace and the welfare of humanity. We are co-travellers and partners of the Global South. On international platforms, we have stood shoulder-to-shoulder," he said.
The two sides signed eight MoUs/agreements, including upgrading ties to 'Strategic Partnership', customs cooperation, establishing data center at the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry, UN Peacekeeping training cooperation, debt restructuring under G20, more ICCR scholarships and AI short courses for Ethiopians, and support for maternal and neonatal healthcare.
Modi said the African Union's headquarters in Ethiopia makes the country a meeting point of African diplomacy. "Inspired by the common vision of an inclusive world, in 2023, India ensured that the African Union became a G20 member," he said.
In 2023, during India’s G20 Presidency, the African Union was admitted as a permanent member of the G20.
Modi said that though this is his first visit, he felt a deep sense of belonging and warmth, reflecting the thousands of years of connection between the two countries.
On his part, Prime Minister Ali said the two countries share over thousands of years of connection through trade, diplomacy, education, culture and even in our food and traditions. "These ties continue to shape a deep friendship, collaboration and mutual respect between our people," he said.
"We also appreciate your consistent message that Africa's priorities must lead the partnership. These kinds of dignified, respectful messages for Africa are very important. Mr Prime Minister, keep pushing. That is the type of message we are expecting from all our trusted friends," Ali said.
He said this aligned fully with Ethiopia's development plan - African-owned, African-led, and African-defined.
"Today, we meet with a clear focus to shape a modern partnership, grounded in sovereignty, self-reliance and practical cooperation. Our cooperation is rooted in equality and South-South solidarity," he said.
"Our economy is performing strongly. Last year, we grew 9.2% and this year we are expecting 10.3% GDP growth. Besides GDP growth, our FDI inflow is also rising big time. India is the leading source for our FDI," he said.
"We have more than 615 Indian companies which are investing in Ethiopia. This all gives our cooperation a strong foundation of trust. I think our decision today that we elevate our historic relationship to a strategic relationship is the right decision," he added.
Ethiopia also conferred its highest award - The Great Honour Nishan of Ethiopia - on PM Modi. He is the first global head of state to receive this award.
Prime Minister Modi also went to the Friendship Park and Friendship Square in Addis Ababa with PM Ali.
In a warm and special gesture, PM Modi was earlier received by his Ethiopian counterpart at the airport and accorded a warm and colourful welcome.
"Ethiopia is a nation with great history and vibrant culture," Modi said.
PM Ali informed his Indian counterpart about the varieties of Ethiopian coffee during informal talks.
"At Addis Ababa airport, took part in a traditional Coffee Ceremony with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali. The ceremony beautifully highlights Ethiopia’s rich heritage," Modi said.
In a unique gesture, the Ethiopian Prime Minister drove Modi to the hotel.
On the way, he took a special initiative of taking PM Modi to the Science Museum and Friendship Park, which was not in the itinerary.
"Gratitude to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali for showing me glimpses of Ethiopian history and culture at the National Palace Museum in Addis Ababa. It was a powerful reminder of Ethiopia’s rich traditions," Modi said in a post on X.
The Nobel Peace Prize-winning Ethiopian PM’s special gestures show remarkable respect for Modi, sources said.
"Thank you Ethiopia for a welcome that was unforgettable. The Indian community showed remarkable warmth and affection. India-Ethiopia friendship is going to get even more robust in the times to come," Modi said.
When Modi arrived at the hotel, he was warmly welcomed by the members of the Indian community. Local artists performed dances. Some of them danced on the theme of the popular Hindi song 'Aisa Des Hai Mera' to welcome him.
On Wednesday, Modi will address the Joint Session of Parliament and share his thoughts on India's journey as the "Mother of Democracy" and the value that the India-Ethiopia partnership can bring to the Global South.
PM Modi arrived in Ethiopia from Jordan, where he held a one-on-one meeting with King Abdullah II at the Husseiniya Palace on Monday before the delegation-level talks.
India and Jordan also inked MoUs in the fields of culture, renewable energy, water management, digital public infrastructure and twinning arrangement between Petra and Ellora, aimed at giving a major boost to bilateral ties and friendship.
From Ethiopia, Modi will visit Oman on the final leg of this three-nation tour.
