Excess deaths in Gujarat double official COVID-19 mortality during first wave: Study
New Delhi, Aug 18: The number of excess deaths across 90 of Gujarat's 162 municipalities from March 2020 to April 2021 were double the state's official COVID-19 mortality numbers for the period, according to a study.Excess mortality is defined as the increase in observed death counts compared to expected mortality.
The researchers from the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, US, and collaborators used data from civil death registers from 90 of 162 municipalities across Gujarat, to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality.
The study, published on Tuesday in the journal PLOS Global Public Health, estimated excess mortality over the course of the pandemic from March 2020 to April 2021.
"We estimated 21,300 excess deaths across these 90 municipalities in this period, representing a 44 per cent increase over the expected baseline," the authors of the study noted.
"The vast majority of these excess deaths likely represent direct deaths from COVID-19 in the absence of any other known catastrophe," they said.
During this period, the official government data reported 10,098 deaths attributable to COVID-19 for the entire Gujarat, the researchers said.
The researchers said a small percentage of these numbers would include deaths from the indirect impact of the pandemic, and from causes unrelated to the pandemic.
The sharpest increase in deaths was observed in late April 2021, with an estimated 678 per cent increase in mortality from expected counts.
The study found the highest increase in mortality was seen in the 40 to 65 age group relative to the other age groups.
Based on the 2011 census, the excess mortality estimate for these 90 municipalities represents approximately at least 8 per cent of the population, the researchers said.
It exceeds the official COVID-19 death count for the entire state of Gujarat, even before the Delta wave of the pandemic in India peaked in May 2021, they said.
Prior studies have concluded that true pandemic-related mortality in India greatly exceeds official counts.
The Union health ministry has over the past year challenged such estimates and the underlying estimation methodology.
"This study, using data directly from the first point of official death registration data recording, provides incontrovertible evidence of the high excess mortality in Gujarat from March 2020 to April 2021," the authors said.
In addition to Harvard University, the team also included researchers from National Foundation for India, New Delhi, Stanford University School of Medicine, and University of California, Berkeley, US.
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Karnataka Muslim Convention to be held in Bengaluru on May 16
Muslim organisations to release report on Congress govt’s three-year performance
Bengaluru: Major Muslim organisations and federations in Karnataka have decided to organise a large public convention titled ‘Karnataka Muslim Convention’ at Town Hall in Bengaluru on May 16. During the convention, a comprehensive report reviewing the three-year performance of the Congress government under the theme “What did the Congress government promise? What did it do? What next?” will be released.
According to a statement issued on Friday, no politicians will be invited to the convention. The report will be submitted to the government and all MLAs after the event.
The convention is being held at a time when the Congress government is nearing the completion of three years in office on May 20. Muslim organisations have expressed dissatisfaction, alleging that despite extending strong support to the Congress in bringing it to power, the community is being neglected.
The Convention is being organised at time when there are concerns over inadequate political representation for Muslims, alleged neglect of community demands, and the suspension of senior Muslim leaders who had worked for the party for decades.
The organisers said the convention aims to raise questions on what the Congress government has delivered so far and what further steps are expected from the government.
The decision to hold the convention was taken during a meeting held on May 6 at A J International Hotel in Shivajinagar, Bengaluru. Representatives of major Muslim organisations, associations, ulema bodies, federations, and members of the ad hoc committee of Karnataka Rajya Muslim Okkoota attended the meeting.
More than 75 representatives and delegates, including senior ulemas, jamaat leaders, lawyers, retired officials, journalists and members of the KRMO ad hoc committee, participated in the discussions.
Members of the KRMO ad hoc committee’s report preparation team and experts from different sectors presented a detailed report on the Congress government’s three-year performance. The report examined promises made to Muslims on ten major issues, the extent to which they were fulfilled, pending promises, alleged discrimination in representation, and the demands now being placed before the government.
The report covered issues such as the hijab ban, reservation cancellation, hate speech and hate crimes, budget allocation, political representation, waqf matters, the anti-cow slaughter law, anti-conversion law, scholarships and educational grants.
Participants offered suggestions and recommendations on various points, and necessary corrections to the report were accepted after detailed discussions.
The meeting also reportedly expressed strong dissatisfaction over the manner in which the Congress government has treated the Muslim community. Participants are said to have opined that if the government and the Congress party continue in the same manner, the community should keep its political options open.
It was later decided that the report would be officially released at the large public convention on May 16 under the title “Karnataka Muslim Convention – What did the Congress government promise? What did it do? What next?”
The organisers appealed to people from all districts of the state to participate in large numbers and send a strong message to the government and the Congress party through the convention.
They also decided that all organisations, jamaats and associations should work towards ensuring participation from every district in Karnataka.
The statement reiterated that no politicians would be invited to the May 16 convention and that the report on the Congress government’s three-year performance would be submitted to the Chief Minister, Deputy Chief Minister, ministers and MLAs after the event.
