India likely to record normal monsoon this year: Skymet
New Delhi (PTI): India is likely to experience a normal monsoon this year, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said on Tuesday and predicted more rainfall in the second half of the season.
Scientists at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have also detected early signs of a favourable monsoon season this year with fading El Nino conditions and reduced snow cover over Eurasia. The Met office will issue a monsoon forecast later this month.
However, normal cumulative rainfall does not mean uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.
Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events -- more rain over a short period -- are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.
Skymet said the upcoming monsoon is expected to be "normal", accounting for 102 per cent (with an error margin of 5 per cent) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four months from June to September.
Rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal.
Skymet expects sufficiently good rains in the south, west, and northwest regions. The core monsoon rain-fed zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall.
However, the eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal are at risk of deficit rainfall during the peak monsoon months of July and August. Northeast India is likely to observe less than normal rains during the first half of the season.
According to Jatin Singh, the managing director at Skymet, "El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation tends to be stronger during La Nina years."
"Also, the transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon. However, the monsoon season may start with a risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase," he said.
India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.
El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
IMD officials earlier this month said La Nina conditions, associated with a favourable monsoon in India, are likely to set in the second part of the season.
Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.
The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.
A preliminary forecast of a positive IOD this season will work in tandem with La Nina for better monsoon prospects, Skymet said.
Nonetheless, the start of the season is expected to be aberrated due to the quick transition from El Nino to La Nina. Also, the rainfall distribution is likely to be diverse and inequitable for the season as a whole, it said.
The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 per cent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 per cent of the GDP and employs more than half of its 1.4 billion population.
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Tharoor defends Karnataka govt’s stand on Bengaluru demolition drive
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Thiruvananthapuram (PTI): Congress MP Shashi Tharoor on Friday defended the Karnataka government’s demolition drive in Bengaluru, saying that legal procedures were followed and alternative arrangements had been promised to the affected residents.
Speaking to reporters here, Tharoor said the land on which the houses were built belonged to the government.
“First, the land belonged to the government, and people were living there illegally. Second, it was a garbage dump and toxic waste had contaminated the water, so it was not a fit place for people to live,” he said.
Tharoor said notices had been issued to the residents before the demolition.
He said he did not see justice in politically projecting the issue only on the basis that the affected people were poor.
“The government has taken a decision to provide temporary accommodation and has promised permanent housing within five to six months,” he said.
According to Tharoor, since a solution has been found, there is no need to unnecessarily provoke the issue.
“There may be flaws in the shifting process and there can be differences of opinion on how it was done. But a promise has been given to find a solution,” he said.
Referring to court directions against so-called ‘bulldozer’ evictions, Tharoor said all actions must be carried out legally.
“The Karnataka government has done this, adhering to court directions. Notices were given, and in some cases they were issued multiple times before the demolition,” he said.
He added that he had not visited Karnataka and therefore had no right to give a definitive opinion, but said the matter should be understood by keeping all these facts in mind.
On the BJP’s victory in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, which falls under his parliamentary constituency, Tharoor said he would raise certain related issues within the party.
He acknowledged that the BJP had worked for the victory and recalled that the party had gained an upper hand in Thiruvananthapuram city during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as well.
“I had pointed this out then itself as a warning signal. There may have been shortcomings in taking our message to the voters, and we could not bring about any major changes in the last one-and-a-half years, which resulted in people continuing to vote for the BJP,” he said.
Tharoor said that after 45 years of LDF rule, people were desperate for a change and he had wanted leadership under former MLA K S Sabarinathan to come to power.
“But people chose another party. The desire for change must be taken into account,” he said.
He also said voter turnout in the local body elections was higher compared to previous polls as people were dissatisfied with the functioning of the corporation.
Responding to CPI state secretary Binoy Viswam’s remark that he was “half BJP”, Tharoor said he had heard such allegations many times before.
“People do not have the patience to read what I write or post on social media. They form opinions just by seeing headlines. If they read what I actually write, they will realise such criticisms are baseless,” he said.
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