Indian economy expected to grow by 7.5% in 2018: Moody's
Mumbai, Aug 23 : Global credit ratings, research, and risk analysis firm Moody's Investors Service expects the Indian economy to grow by around 7.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019.
However, the company expects the country's economy to grow at a higher rate of 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2018.
"We expect the Indian economy to grow around 7.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019. Economic activity grew by 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2018," Moody's Investors Service said in its Global Macro Outlook: 2018-19 (August 2018 Update) report.
"High frequency indicators suggest a similar outturn for the second quarter. Growth is supported by strong urban and rural demand and improved industrial activity."
According to the firm, PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) and the index of eight core industries (ECI) shows robust activity in the industrial sector.
"A normal monsoon together with the increase in the minimum support prices for kharif crops, should support rural demand," the report said.
"Thus, despite external headwinds from higher oil prices and tightening financing conditions, growth prospects for the remainder of the year remain in line with the economy's potential."
Besides, the agency said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to continue on a steady monetary policy tightening path into 2019.
It pointed out that a rise in core inflation and vulnerability to tightening external financial conditions as the main concerns behind the trend.
"Retail inflation in India has risen as per our expectations since mid-2017, but remains stable around 5 per cent. But core inflation has moved up in recent months to 6.2 per cent," the report said.
"The run up in energy prices over the past few months will raise headline inflation temporarily. The impact on food inflation from increased procurement prices to farmers, will be mitigated somewhat by the expected rise in farm output because of a good harvest."
In addition, the company said that the upside to inflation comes from strengthening demand, which is reflected in rising core inflation.
"We therefore expect the RBI to continue on a steady tightening path into 2019," the report said.
In July, the RBI had raised the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points for the second time in two months to 6.5 per cent.
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Congress to contest only 11 out of 36 seats in Mumbai; Political analysts predict tough battle
Mumbai: Out of the 36 assembly constituencies in Mumbai, Congress will contest in just 11 seats in the upcoming elections. In the 2019 assembly elections, the party fielded candidates in 30 constituencies, but this time, it has reduced its presence significantly following its alliance with Shiv Sena (UBT). Despite several rounds of discussions led by Mumbai Congress President Varsha Gaikwad and MLA Aslam Shaikh, Congress secured only a few seats under the MVA formula.
The seats allocated to Congress are seen as BJP strongholds, making victory challenging, according to political analysts. Among the 11 constituencies Congress is contesting, four are held by sitting MLAs. Notably, Congress swapped the Bandra East seat with Chandivli, which is held by Shiv Sena (UBT). Additionally, seats like Byculla and Versova, which Congress had shown interest in, were ceded as part of the alliance arrangement.
"This is the fewest seats Congress has contested in decades, indicating its struggles within the seat-sharing dynamics with Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP)," said political analysts. Moreover, in Northeast Mumbai, Congress is fielding candidates in only one constituency.
In Mulund, NCP (SP)'s Sangeeta Wagh and Congress’s Rakesh Shetty have filed nominations, raising the possibility of Congress conceding all of Northeast Mumbai if Shetty withdraws. "We aimed to contest in 14-15 seats but were left with just 11, as Shiv Sena (UBT) had already announced candidates in several constituencies. We will, however, uphold the alliance’s spirit to maximise MVA's win," said Gaikwad.
