Inflation cools to 6-yr low of 3.16 pc in April; sparks more rate cut hopes
New Delhi, May 13 (PTI): Retail inflation eased to a nearly six-year low of 3.16 per cent in April mainly due to subdued prices of vegetables, fruits, pulses, and other protein-rich items, creating enough room for the Reserve Bank to go for another round of rate cut in the June monetary policy review.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.34 per cent in March and 4.83 per cent in April 2024. It was 3.15 per cent in July 2019.
NSO data showed a sharp decline of 91 basis points in food inflation in April 2025 in comparison to March 2025. The food inflation in April 2025 is the lowest since October 2021.
Food inflation in April was 1.78 per cent, lower than 2.69 per cent in the preceding month and 8.7 per cent in the year-ago month, showed data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank, which has been mandated to ensure inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side, has slashed the key interest rate by 50 basis points in two tranches (February and April) as the price situation improved.
The central bank has projected the CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 at 4 per cent, with Q1 at 3.6 per cent; Q2 at 3.9 per cent; Q3 at 3.8 per cent; and Q4 at 4.4 per cent.
"The significant decline in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of April 2025 is mainly attributed to decline in inflation of vegetables, pulses and products, fruits, meat and fish, personal care and effects and cereals and products," NSO said.
There was a deflation in potato (12.7 per cent), tomato (33.21 per cent), chicken (6.78 per cent) arhar (14.27 per cent), and jeera (20.79 per cent) during April on annual basis.
During April, inflation in mustard oil was at 19.6 per cent, refined oil (sunflower, soyabean) at 23.75 per cent, apple at 17 per cent, and onion at 2.94 per cent.
The rural inflation was at 2.92 per cent in April 2025 compared to 3.25 per cent in the preceding month 2025.
Urban inflation declined marginally from 3.43 per cent in March 2025 to 3.36 per cent in April.
According to the data, the highest inflation was in Kerala at 5.94 per cent while the lowest was in Telangana at 1.26 per cent.
Commenting on inflation data, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Limited, said that average inflation is at 3.5 per cent in FY2026, with the prints for Q2 and Q3 sharply trailing the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projections for these quarters, allowing for an additional 75 bps of rate cuts in this calendar year.
"A 25 bps rate cut appears forthcoming in the June 2025 policy, followed by easing of 25 bps each in the August and October 2025 policy reviews.
"If the GDP growth print for Q4 FY2025 does not report an acceleration from the 6.2% seen for Q3 FY2025, the MPC may consider frontloading the rate easing, with a 50 bps cut in the upcoming review," Nayar said.
Year-on-year fuel and light inflation rate for April was 2.92 per cent as against 1.42 per cent in March.
Inflation in 'Transport and Communication' segment was higher at 3.73 per cent in April compared to 3.36 per cent in March.
Paras Jasrai, Associate Director at India Ratings and Research said the latest data points to a low inflation intensity as this was the third successive month where inflation has been lower than the target of 4 per cent.
"We expect the RBI to opt in for a 25 bp cut in policy rates in view of the fragile global economic and geopolitical environment in the June 2025 monetary policy review. The cumulative rate cut in FY26 would depend on the pace of decline in inflation and evolving inflation-growth dynamics," Jasrai said.
The price data are collected from selected 1,114 urban markets and 1,181 villages covering all states/UTs by field staff of NSO, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
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JK: Death toll mounts to 41 after record rains in Jammu; Jhelum floods Srinagar, Anantnag
Jammu/Srinagar(PTI): After record rains wreaked havoc in Jammu and Kashmir over the past two days, the death toll in related incidents rose to 41, most of them victims of the landslide on a Vaishno Devi pilgrimage route, while there was some let-up in the showers on Wednesday, allowing relief efforts to pick up pace.
The water level in the swollen rivers across Jammu showed signs of receding from 11 AM, but the flood alert mark was breached by the Jhelum in Anantnag and Srinagar and water entered several residential and commercial areas.
Massive damage has been reported to public infrastructure, including several key bridges, private houses and commercial establishments, due to overflowing of water bodies and flash floods across the Union Territory, officials said, adding more than 10,000 people have been evacuated from low-lying flooded areas.
As torrential rains disrupted normal life, Education Minister Sakina Itoo announced that all educational institutes will remain closed across Jammu and Kashmir on Thursday in view of the inclement weather.
The Northern Railways ordered the cancellation of 58 trains to and from Jammu and Katra stations, while 64 trains were short-terminated or short-originated at various stations in the division.
Rail traffic, which was briefly restored on Wednesday morning with six trains departing from Jammu after a day-long suspension, has again been halted due to flash floods and heavy soil erosion in the Chakki river area, the officials said.
With the rain stopping in some areas, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah rushed to Jammu from Srinagar to personally review the situation in the region.
Officials said that the phone and network services were restored across all networks on Wednesday, 24 hours after the damage to optical fibres caused outages in the Union territory
The death toll in the Vaishno Devi landslide has gone up to 34 with rescuers pulling out more bodies from under the debris, the officials said, a day after the disaster struck the route to the hilltop shrine in Jammu and Kashmir's Reasi district.
At least 20 people were injured in the landslide triggered by incessant heavy rain and are undergoing treatment in different hospitals, the officials said, adding the landslide struck near the Inderprastha Bhojnalaya at Ardhkuwari, about halfway along the winding 12-km trek from Katra to the shrine, at around 3 PM on Tuesday.
With more people feared trapped, rescue teams are continuing to dig through the mounds of rubble to look for survivors.
The pilgrimage to the shrine remained suspended for the second day. While the yatra had been stopped on the Himkoti trek route since morning on Tuesday, it was going on on the old route till afternoon when authorities decided to suspend it as a precautionary measure.
Jammu has recorded 380 mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours ending at 8.30 AM on Wednesday, which is the highest for a 24-hour period since 1910 when the observatory was set up in the winter capital.
Four people, including three women, lost their lives in Doda district on Tuesday, while two bodies were found on Tuesday, including that of a BSF jawan in Pragwal. The other body found in Akhnoor is yet to be identified. Body of an irrigation department employee was found in Lakhanpur along the border of Punjab.
Heavy rains were also experienced in the Kashmir valley overnight, where the main Jhelum river has crossed the flood alert mark at Sangam in Anantnag district and at Ram Munshi Bagh in Srinagar this morning.
In Srinagar, water entered the residential areas in Kursu, Rajbagh, Bemina and Sekidafar, while most places in main Anantnag town also saw flood waters enter residential as well as commercial areas, leaving markets submerged, they said.
The waters also entered the district court complex in Anantnag district in south Kashmir, following which the district judge and other staff had to be evacuated by the SDRF personnel using a boat, the officials said.
The district administrations and police in Anantnag, Kulgam and Srinagar had to evacuate people living in low-lying areas to safety.
The Jammu-Srinagar national highway remained closed for vehicular traffic, along with over a dozen other roads struck by landslides over the past couple of days.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said his prayers are for everyone's safety and well-being.
"The loss of lives due to a landslide on the route to the Shri Mata Vaishno Devi Temple is saddening. My thoughts are with the bereaved families. May the injured recover at the earliest. The administration is assisting all those affected," he said in a post on X.
Chief Minister Abdullah said he has briefed Prime Minister Modi on the situation arising from heavy rains and flooding in the Jammu region and expressed gratitude for his assurance of continued assistance to the people of Jammu and Kashmir.
The chief minister said they were slightly relieved as the rain had stopped on Wednesday.
"As compared to yesterday, we have got slight relief today (Wednesday) with the fact that the rains have stopped. Water is slowly receding in low-lying areas," he said.
Officials said said a flash flood washed away 10 residential houses and a bridge in the remote Margi area of Kishtwar district, but there was no immediate report of any casualties.
The rains continued non-stop in most parts of the Jammu region over the past 24 hours with almost all water bodies, including Tawi, Chenab, Ujh, Ravi and Basanter, flowing several feet above the danger mark, the officials said.
However, the water level in most of the water bodies started receding after the rains stopped at around 11 AM, though the weather remained cloudy.
On August 14, a cloudburst triggered flash floods in Chisoti, the last motorable village en route to the Machail Mata shrine, in Kishtwar district leaving behind a trail of death and destruction. At least 65 people, mostly pilgrims, were killed and more than 100 were injured, while 32 are still missing.
