Migration from Kerala declined 11% in 5 years: Study
Thiruvananthapuram, Sep 17 : Factors like the declining population in the 19-25 age-group and stagnant wages in the Gulf countries could be responsible for migration from Kerala declining 11 per cent between 2013 and 2018, a new study says.
"Of the 2.1 million emigrants (from Kerala in the Gulf and elsewhere), 15.8 per cent are females. However, there is a reduction of 3 lakhs migrants, which is one-tenth of the number of migrants in 2013. In 2018, we reached a stage where migrants figures shown a negative growth of 11.6 per cent," S. Irudayarajan, who led the Kerala Migration Survey (KMS) 2018 told reporters here on Monday.
The survey is the eighth in a series of studies on migration undertaken by the Centre for Development Studies (CDS) since 1998. CDS is an internationally renowned, self-governing institution known for its cutting edge research in applied economics and topics germane to socio-economic development. It was established in 1971 by the late Professor K.N. Raj, considered the architect of India's First Five-Year Plan (1951-56), and a former Vice Chancellor of Delhi University, with whom he was associated for 18 years.
Explaining the reason for the decline Irudayarajan said it could be due to the cumulative effects of the demographic advances which have decreased the population in the migration-prone age-group (15-29 years) as Kerala attained replacement fertility level in around 1987.
"Wages in the Gulf economies have not improved after the global economic crisis. This has led to lower savings, de-motivating them to migrate. Another reason is wages in the domestic economy have increased compared to other states," said Irudayarajan.
Explaining further he said the price of oil, on which the Gulf economy is based has been declining since 2010.
"Although the last one year has seen a slight increase in oil price, the growth of the Gulf economy has suffered a major setback. Due to nationalisation policies such as Nitaqat and recently introduced family taxes in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies appear to be not that conducive for current and prospective migrants," Irudayarajan noted.
The study was conducted through a survey of 15,000 households from January 1-March 31 and was funded by the Kerala government's Department of Non-Resident Keralites' Affairs.
The study notes that 89.2 per cent of the total migrants from Kerala are in the Middle East countries.
In 2013 while there were 20.70 lakh migrants in the Middle East, the figure fell to 18.93 lakh in 2018. The remaining 10 per cent of the emigrants are concentrated in the other countries like the USA, the UK, and Australia.
In 2013 there were 8.9 lakh in the UAE while in 2018 it stands at 8.30 lakh, followed by 5.22 lakhs in Saudi Arabia and falling to 4.87 lakh in 2018.
In Qatar, there has been an increase from 1.06 lakhs in 2013 to 1.86 lakhs in 2018 but in Bahrain there has been a fall from 1.49 lakhs in 2013 to 0.81 lakhs in 2018.
The study found that one in every fifth household in Kerala has a migrant, while among religious groups, one in every third household is a Muslim, one in five household is a Christian and one in 10 households is a Hindu.
The estimated total annual remittances to Kerala have been placed at 85,092 crore.
"Of the total remittances at state level, Malappuram district receives 21 per cent, followed by Kollam (15 per cent), and Thrissur (11 per cent)," added Irudayarajan.
Concluding his findings, he said the long history of migration from Kerala to the Gulf is in its last phase.
"However, remittances to the state have increased. This is due to the fact that Keralites' in the Gulf have climbed the social ladder and are earning higher wages, allowing them to remit more. Thanks to the weakening rupee, families remit more. The KMS 2018, has also confirmed that the migration from Kerala is falling and return of migrants is on the rise," added Irudayarajan.
On the study of return migrants as estimated by KMS 2018, it is 1.29 million, which is about 60 per cent of the number of emigrants.
"The KMS 2018, would be an invaluable pointer for further policy formation in terms of international migration and also employment schemes of the government. The last 20 years of KMS proved that almost 40 per cent of total remittances to the state were used by emigrants in land, housing and its assets.
"With the recent devastating floods, and the massive loss of physical capital and land value, migration can be conjectured to increase at least in the short run. We expect the trend will change after the floods as migration will play major role as a livelihood option for the New Kerala, where we expect further migration and remittances. This requires another quick assessment by the Government of Kerala," said Irudayarajan.
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“Full prepared..going to win,” Congress MP KC Venugopal ahead of Kerala polls
EC not functioning as a neutral institution: Venugopal
Congress MP K. C. Venugopal on Monday raised concerns over the election schedule announced by the Election Commission of India for the upcoming Kerala Assembly election, questioning the timing of the poll dates and alleging that the schedule leaves limited time for campaigning.
Speaking to news agency ANI in Delhi after the poll panel announced elections in five states and Union Territories, Venugopal said that the Congress and the United Democratic Front (UDF) are fully prepared for the elections and confident of victory. At the same time, he questioned the pattern of dates announced by the Election Commission.
“We are fully prepared, we are going to win the elections... You can see how the Election Commission has set the dates. The first phase of elections is on the 9th, nominations are due until the 23rd, scrutiny is on the 24th, nominations can be withdrawn until the 26th, and after that, there are 11 days for campaigning,” he said.
“As for Kerala, there is Easter and Good Friday in the first week...The Election Commission could have announced the dates earlier... The counting date is on May 4th, so what was the point of holding elections in Kerala so early? What is their intention behind holding elections on the same day in Kerala, Puducherry, and Assam?... We are confident that we will win, but the people of the country are seeing the biased attitude of the Election Commission...,” he added.
He further stated that his party was ready for elections irrespective of the dates announced by the poll body.
“We are going to win the election. India's strategy has been set up. And we are all ready for winning this election. But one thing as far as declaring election, even though they are giving only for five days, we are going to win the election. We have no problem,” he said.
Detailing the poll schedule while questioning the time available for campaigning, he stated, “but you can see the pattern of date which the election commission announced. Yesterday they declared election, and today they notified us. The first phase of election on April 9th, filing of nomination will be over on the 23rd of this month, 24th scrutiny, 26th withdrawal of nomination. After 26, four plus seven, 11 days campaign.”
“As far as Kerala is concerned, April first week is a holy week. The holiday week means, Good Friday is there. Nobody will do anything on Good Friday. Easter is the big festival. These festivals are natural, you have to see that. Among the 11 days, working days, two, three days will go for holidays. Then hardly seven, eight days for campaigning in this election for candidates,” the Congress MP questioned.
The Congress leader said the Election Commission could have announced the dates earlier if there was a need for an early election schedule.
Questioning the urgency behind placing Kerala in the first phase of polling, he added that the counting date is much later.
“Which is the date of counting? Fourth May. Then what is the urgency of putting Kerala in the first phase without giving sufficient time for candidates? And putting Kerala, Puducherry, Assam together, what is the intention behind that?” Venugopal questioned.
He also alleged that the Election Commission was not functioning as a neutral institution.
“The Election commission is completely losing that capacity as a neutral player. You can see 14 of our prime minister's programs over and on the 15th they announce the election, 16th notification comes,” he said.
Venugopal further stated that such tactics would not affect the Congress’ prospects in the election.
“They think that this type of techniques and tactics, because of these techniques and tactics, UDF is going to lose, and Congress is going to lose. This is their complete dream only. This is not going to happen. We are very much confident at any cost, whether they are not giving any time also, we are going to win the election,” he said.
“But the people of India are watching this. The tricks of the election commission. To restrict the campaign, people of India are watching. This I want to bring into the notice of the nation. That's all,” Venugopal said.
The Election Commission of India on Sunday announced the schedule for the Kerala Assembly election. Polling in the state will be held in a single phase on April 9 while the counting of votes is scheduled to take place on May 4.
