Political Stock Exchange: Rahul, not Modi, preferred PM in Tamil Nadu and Kerala
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Pinarayi, Stalin most popular leaders in Kerala, TN: Survey
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46% in Kerala unhappy with Sabarimala judgment
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Over 50% in TN unhappy with AIADMK govt
New Delhi, Oct 26: Congress president Rahul Gandhi outpaces Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the crucial southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu as their preferred choice for the next PM, according to India Today's Political Stock Exchange (PSE).
Remember, a recent PSE survey had found Gandhi surpassing Modi in Andhra Pradesh as well for the PM's post.
The latest Kerala study highlighted what appears to be a moderate public response to the Sabarimala row. One-third of the respondents were found to be neutral in their reaction to the Supreme Court lifting the ban on women's entry into the shrine.
Overall, Kerala's chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan and DMK president MK Stalin in neighbouring Tamil Nadu rank as the most popular leaders in the two southern states, the PSE showed.
Kerala
Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan (R), seen here with PM Modi, should be CM for another term, said 27 per cent of respondents. (Photo: Reuters)
Forty-two per cent of the respondents expressed satisfaction with the state's Left Democratic Front government led by Vijayan, according to the PSE. Twenty-seven per cent voiced dissatisfaction, while 26 per cent rated it average, the survey found.
CM Vijayan won the support of 27 per cent of the respondents who wanted him to run the state for another term. Congress leader Oommen Chandy secured the backing of 20 per cent.
Sabarimala/Local Issues
Over the hot-button issue of women of menstruating age entering the Sabarimala temple, as many as 46 per cent of the respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the Supreme Court's landmark ruling last month.
But another 33 per cent remained non-committal about the verdict to end the centuries-old ban on women's admission. Twenty-one per cent found the court judgment satisfactory.
In the PSE survey, 41 per cent of respondents favoured a central ordinance to overturn the ruling while 26 per cent rejected such ideas.
"The Sabarimala issue is being used by the BJP. They are out to make brazen, naked kind of communalism. The Congress has played soft Hindutva. The UDF is vulnerable to poaching by the BJP," said psephologist Yogendra Yadav.
On its part, the saffron party treaded cautiously. "We clearly think this (Sabarimala) is a matter concerning faith and sentiment. No central minister reacted on the judgment," remarked BJP MP GVL Narasimha Rao.
Reminded of Union minister Maneka Gandhi's reaction to the ruling, he said, "As a minister, she has a different role. No minister in the government will comment against a judgment. The court will decide on this matter."
CPI(M) MP MB Rajesh accused the Sangh of double standards. "The duplicity of RSS-BJP has been exposed. When the Fadnavis government in Maharashtra implemented a similar court order removing the ban on women's entry to Shani Shingnapur temple, they implemented even without going for the legal option of appeal," he said.
The Kerala government, which is duty-bound to implement the verdict of SC, is "branded as atheist and anti-Hindu," he alleged.
In the PSE survey, unemployment emerged as the top concern of respondents in Kerala, followed by road conditions, price rise and drinking water.
NaMo versus RaGa
On the choice of the next prime minister, 38 per cent respondents supported Congress chief Rahul Gandhi, while 31 per cent backed PM Modi for the top job.
But Yadav insisted the BJP was catching up on the back of issues like Sabarimala. "The BJP is making a breakthrough. It has been very close from the two corners of Kerala in the last two elections. Is the BJP able to cross the threshold of electoral viability? They are way behind right now but they could use the issue like Sabarimala. The Left is vulnerable in Kerala," he said.
Rao claimed his party was set to gain in the upcoming polls. We won the Assembly seat in the last election. This will be a triangular contest. At 32 per cent, we will win a number of seats in Kerala, he added.
The BJP leader claimed both West Bengal and Kerala will unseat incumbents. "States like Kerala and West Bengal will melt suddenly. One sudden election, and there will be a massive swing," Rao said.
Congress leader Tom Vadakkan disagreed. "The Congress is not in trouble at all. Meltdown makes no sense. People in Kerala are very level-headed. They know who delivers."
Previous elections
In the 140-member Assembly, the LDF swept the 2016 elections, securing 91 constituencies to unseat the Congress-led United Democratic Front from power in the state.
Methodology
The PSE study is based on telephonic interviews across 20 parliamentary constituencies of Kerala, with a sample size of 7,920.
Tamil Nadu
Chief minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami's (R) government appears to be facing considerable public disaffection in Tamil Nadu. (Photo: Twitter/@CMOTamilNadu)
Chief minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami's government appears to be facing considerable public disaffection in the state, with the PSE survey showing 54 per cent of respondents ticking the "dissatisfied" box. As few as 18 per cent found it to be satisfactory.
On the other hand, DMK chief MK Stalin sweeps the popularity chart, with 41 per cent supporting him as the next CM of Tamil Nadu. Palaniswami trailed at 10 per cent and actor-turned-politician Kamal Haasan was at eight per cent ahead of Rajinikanth at six per cent, the PSE found.
"Rajinikanth has a lot of appeal. But in terms of political ideology, he has very little to say," Yadav said. "On the other hand, Kamal Haasan seems to be a serious contender for the vacuum left by Jayalalithaa."
Political/Local Issues
In 2016, the AIADMK, then led by J Jayalalithaa, retained power in Tamil Nadu, winning 134 of the state's 232 constituencies on its own. But the party suffered a vertical split after Amma's death in December the same year.
According to the PSE survey, 62 per cent of Tamil Nadu residents believe the faction-ridden AIADMK will break up further before next Assembly elections.
More than 70 per cent say the government has not been functioning properly after Jayalalithaa's passing, the PSE showed.
Yadav agreed with the findings, saying the DMK faced no uncertainty unlike the AIADMK. "While Karunanidhi is no more, the party structure is intact. There is a clear inheritor, there is a clear successor. In case of the AIADMK, the entire thing seems to have collapsed. There is an implosion," Yadav said.
Unemployment topped the list of major issues for Tamil Nadu residents, followed by drinking water, price rise, rural connectivity and farm-related difficulties, the survey showed.
NaMo versus RaGa
Rahul Gandhi won 36 per cent of voter support and Modi 29 per cent as the next prime minister, according to the PSE.
"In places like Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, the BJP is not a player at all. Modi's ratings get reflected there," Yadav said.
In his comments, the BJP's Rao argued that coalitions play a key role in Tamil Nadu politics. "It is a state where no single party has been in a position to contest election for a very long time, not even Amma. It's a state where coalition[s] matter," Rao said.
Methodology
The PSE study is based on telephonic interviews across 39 parliamentary constituencies of Tamil Nadu, with a sample size of 14,820.
Courtesy: www.indiatoday.in
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Post poll TN alliances divided in supporting TVK
Chennai (PTI): In a changed political atmosphere in Tamil Nadu with no single political party having a simple majority to form the government post the Assembly election, opinion is divided among the allies led by the Dravidian majors in extending external support to Vijay-led TVK in government formation.
Both the DMK and AIADMK are at unease as the Congress and also a section in the AIADMK express willingness to extend external support to Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagtam in forming the government.
Post poll, the TVK's political prospects appear to impact alliances led by both the Dravidian majors in a different manner, triggering a speculation of a split.
Leema Rose Martin, who won from Lalgudi on an AIADMK ticket, has stated that talks were underway on extending support to the TVK. Her son-in-law Aadhav Arjuna, who won from Villivakkam is TVK's general secretary.
On May 5, former AIADMK minister O S Manian, emerging from his meeting with party general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, stated that AIADMK would not support TVK in forming the government.
The AIADMK, which finished third in the elections with 47 seats has cancelled its meeting of MLAs designate on Wednesday amidst a difference in extending external support to the TVK, which won 108 seats, including two seats by its founder Vijay.
As Vijay is gearing up for his swearing-in on May 7, the police have tightened security at his residence here. The party has lodged its MLA-elect at a resort in Mamallapuram and has simultaneously engaged in talks with the Congress and AIADMK, a source said.
The DMK that won 59 seats on its own, has convened a meeting of its newly elected legislators on May 7 evening and the party is likely to elect the youth wing secretary Udhayanidhi Stalin, who won from Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni as its legislature party leader.
Congress general secretary K C Venugopal admitted that TVK chief Vijay requested the Congress for support to form the government.
"The INC is clear that the mandate in Tamil Nadu is for a secular government, committed to protecting the Constitution in letter and spirit. The INC is determined not to allow the BJP and its proxies to run the government of Tamil Nadu in any manner. Thiru Vijay has also spoken about drawing inspiration from Perunthalaivar Kamaraj," he said.
Accordingly, the Congress leadership has directed the TNCC to take a final decision on Vijay’s request, keeping in view the sentiments of the state as reflected in the electoral verdict, Venugopal said in a statement.
DMK spokesperson Saravanan Annadurai slammed the Congress decision and said the move to ally with TVK, pledging the support of its five MLAs to the party, was tantamount to "backstabbing the DMK and the people of Tamil Nadu."
"They have betrayed the mandate given by the people. Even before the ink on the returning officer’s signature on the victory certificate has dried, they have chosen to go ahead with this alliance," he told PTI.
The most important question was who took this "foolhardy decision, and how is it going to backfire on the Congress?" he asked.
"I don’t think they had any serious deliberation on this. The larger issue is their opposition to the BJP, which is their ideological enemy. We have supported the Congress throughout. It was our leader M K Stalin, who named Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate when the BJP and RSS were criticising him. And now, within a day, they say they are supporting TVK. This is not the mandate of the people of Tamil Nadu,” Saravanan said.
The Congress' exit from its long-standing alliance with the DMK will be a significant moment in the political scenario of the state, commentator and political analyst Sumanth Raman said.
The Congress may be betting on the TVK as a long-term partner option, but that comes with risks, as the TVK is as yet an unknown quantity, he said.
"For the DMK, if the TVK+Congress becomes the choice of the minorities as it well could, it is an existential threat. It was the minority vote that gave the DMK alliance a 12%-15% cushion in the polls. If that goes, their chances of winning drops dramatically," Raman said on 'X.'
The Congress won 5 seats. However, DMK's other allies, the IUML, VCK, CPI and CPI (M) and DMDK have categorically stated that they would not support TVK.
As of now, the TVK requires the support of 11 MLAs to attain a simple majority of 118 to form the government.
The PMK, which won 4 seats and AMMK one - both allies of AIADMK - have not announced their decision yet.
"AIADMK’s real post-result drama may not be outside the party, but inside it. Whispers from the west and north suggest that a Coimbatore hand and a Villupuram voice may soon ask the question everyone is avoiding: Is it time to save the party from the leadership, before the cadre are forced to do it themselves? In politics, coups don’t begin with slogans. They begin with silence, phone calls and “review meetings,” Aspire Swaminathan, who is credited with founding the AIADMK IT wing in 2014, said on 'X.'
He has resigned from the AIADMK in 2021 and now acts an as independent political analyst.
