RBI can sell USD 25 bn more to arrest rupee fall: SBI report
Mumbai, Sep 18 : The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should intervene in both spot and forward markets to arrest Indian rupee's depreciation, suggested a State Bank of India (SBI) Ecowrap report on Tuesday.
As per the report, during the June 2008 to May 2009 period, when rupee depreciated by 13 per cent, the RBI sold dollars worth $43 billion, though the forex reserves at that time stood at $312 billion.
The report cited that even during 1990s, when the total forex reserve was less than $40 billion, the RBI had intervened in the market by selling 8-9 per cent of total reserve to rein in a fall in rupee.
"So, we believe in the present scenario, RBI could go up to its tolerance limit of 10 per cent (a crude proxy of the average ratio over all periods) by selling at least an additional $25 billion in the forex market," the report said.
The apex bank is known to enter the markets via intermediaries to either sell or buy US dollars to keep the rupee in a stable orbit.
In addition, the report said that oil companies may also be asked to purchase all their USD requirements directly from the RBI through a single bank, an arrangement that was used in 2013.
"Further, oil companies may also be asked to borrow USD for import payments directly from foreign branches of Indian Banks. These funds may be borrowed for longer term instead of the very short-term funds borrowed currently," the report said.
The report comes on a day when latest global trade protectionist measures, along with high crude oil prices, dragged the Indian rupee to a fresh low of 72.98 per US dollar.
At 5 p.m on Tuesday, the rupee closed at 72.98 per greenback from its previous close of 72.51 per dollar. It had opened at 72.60 per US dollar at the Inter-Bank Foreign Exchange Market and remained range bound.
However, the Indian currency's slide commenced from 4.45 p.m onwards as it touched 72.96 breaching its previous intra-day record low of 72.91 made on September 12.
According to analysts, concerns over a rise in inflation rate, growing protectionism in global trade and an outflow of foreign funds from the country's equity market have had an adverse impact on the Indian currency.
"After comments surfaced that Saudi Arabia is comfortable with higher crude oil prices, Brent prices jumped. At the same time, news came that China has warned of retaliation in trade," said Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President for Currency and Interest Rates with Kotak Securities.
"Both these news, triggered a sharp decline in Chinese currency and rupee. Weak rupee caused a sell-off in Nifty."
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Trump pauses Project Freedom, claims great progress for final agreement with Iran
Washington (PTI): President Donald Trump has suspended “Project Freedom,” to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, claiming progress in negotiations with Iran toward an agreement to end the war.
In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump said, “Great progress has been made toward a complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran.”
“Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed," Trump said.
Project Freedom was launched on Monday to escort ships, stranded due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, out to safety. Trump had announced the operation on Sunday and the US Central Command began implementing it the next day.
However, the Project led to friction in the vicinity of the narrow seaway, a key route for transporting one-fifth of the global oil supplies, with the UAE claiming that its ships were attacked by Iran. The US also claimed to have destroyed several Iranian small boats.
Trump’s statement on Truth Social came hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Operation Epic Fury, launched on February 28, had concluded as its objectives have been achieved.
"Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation. We're not cheering for an additional situation to occur. We would prefer the path of peace. What @POTUS would prefer is a deal... that is, so far, not the route that Iran has chosen," Rubio told a press conference at the White House on Tuesday.
On Project Freedom, Rubio said the goal was to rescue almost 23,000 civilians from 87 different countries who were trapped inside the Persian Gulf and left for dead by the Iranian regime.
"This is not an offensive operation. This is a defensive operation, and what that means is very simple: there’s no shooting unless we're shot at first. We’re not attacking them, but if they're attacking us or they’re attacking a ship, you need to respond to that," Rubio said.
