RG Kar protests: TMC faces unprecedented challenge, situation creates space for new political force
Kolkata (PTI): The rape and murder of a woman doctor at RG Kar Hospital has triggered massive public outrage in West Bengal, creating a major political crisis for the ruling TMC and posing one of the biggest challenges to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's leadership since she took office in 2011.
The incident sparked a sustained mass movement transcending political affiliations, with citizens from all walks of life demanding justice and accountability, and its grassroots intensity and lack of overt political banners have made it the most formidable civil movement since Banerjee's rise to power, exposing deep-seated frustrations over governance and safety under her administration.
Political observers and leaders believe the sustained mass movement following the tragedy has created fertile ground for a new political party in West Bengal driven by ordinary citizens, students, and professionals disillusioned with the ruling TMC and opposition BJP and CPI(M).
"The movement's strength lies in its independence from traditional political banners, reflecting a broad demand for justice, transparency, and effective governance. It has exposed a leadership vacuum in the existing opposition parties that a new party could potentially fill by aligning with the protesters' calls for accountability," political scientist Maidul Islam said.
The young doctor, whose body was found on August 9, was allegedly raped and murdered while on duty. A civic volunteer was arrested by Kolkata Police the next day.
The public reaction was intense, with thousands of medical professionals, students, activists, and ordinary citizens flooding the streets of Kolkata and other cities in protests marked by poignant displays of grief and anger.
Initially "slow and controversial" in its response, the TMC's handling of the case has been widely criticised as inadequate and reactive.
The CM's public condemnation and promises of swift justice failed to quell public anger or restore faith in her administration's ability to protect its citizens.
A senior TMC leader told PTI on condition of anonymity that "while Kolkata Police arrested the main accused within 24 hours", administrative missteps and allegations from the victim's parents led to a public perception of government cover-up.
This left the party and administration struggling to counter the mass movement and on the defensive.
TMC spokesperson Krishanu Mitra defended the party's commitment to justice by stating that "the protests prove there is a democratic space for agitation in West Bengal, unlike BJP-ruled states".
However, he admitted that the incident has put the TMC in a tight spot, despite its strong popular support, as opposition forces work to capitalise on the tragedy.
The incident has also brought out differences within the ruling TMC.
TMC deputy leader in Rajya Sabha, Sukhendu Sekhar Ray, faced party backlash after publicly supporting the 'Reclaim the Night' programme and calling for the CBI to question arrested former principal of RG Kar Medical College and Hospital, Sandip Ghosh, and Kolkata Police Commissioner Vineet Goyal.
Meanwhile, his colleague Jawhar Sircar announced his resignation from the Rajya Sabha and exited politics, citing frustration with the state government's inaction against corrupt doctors.
"This incident poses one of the biggest challenges for the party as it is coming from a non-political force," a TMC leader said.
Opposition parties BJP and CPI(M) have swiftly capitalised on the tragedy to criticise the TMC's governance, launching aggressive campaigns that accuse the ruling party of failing to ensure basic safety for women.
"This is a direct consequence of the TMC's failure to provide a secure environment. Banerjee, who is also the home minister, must resign immediately," senior BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari said at a rally.
The CPI(M) emphasised the systemic governance failures that the incident has highlighted.
Political analysts pointed out that the opposition parties have failed to penetrate the mass movements organised by civil society, common people, and doctors.
"The RG Kar incident has again brought to the fore the power of civil society movements, which, during the last 13 years of the TMC regime, had been absent. Additionally, the failure of the BJP and CPI(M) to take the lead in this spontaneous mass movement has shown that people are yearning for a new political force to challenge the TMC," political scientist Biswanath Chakraborty said.
Echoing similar views, political analyst Suman Bhattacharya said that although there is a visible dent in TMC's urban votes, especially among women, the CPI(M) and BJP are unlikely to benefit from this.
"There is a visible attempt to build a new political force to take on the TMC, which can appeal to both liberal voters who are apathetic towards the BJP and a section of disillusioned urban and semi-urban voters who want an alternative to the TMC-BJP binary," he said.
Mitra also acknowledged that there is an attempt to create a new political force, but whether this effort will succeed remains to be seen.
Speaking about the future of the stir, Rimjhim Sinha, who launched the 'Reclaim the Night' initiative, described it as a new fight for women's freedom.
"I don't want to talk about politics, but the fact remains that all the political parties have failed to fight for the cause and rights of women. If the parties are not serious about fighting for our rights, we will fight it out on our own," she added.
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TVK falls short within touching distance; what next to ensure majority
Chennai (PIT): With TVK falling 10 short of a majority, its leader Vijay has the option of forming a minority government in Tamil Nadu without any outside support, analysts said on Tuesday.
Senior political analyst Sumanth Raman told PTI that the TVK is likely to opt to be a minority government with outside support.
"Since it is the single largest party, TVK has the option to go for that. I don't think he (Vijay) will opt for official support from other political party's MLAs", he said.
"If he opts for minority government, the only thing is that, Vijay will have to prove the support once again after six months".
Raman also pointed out that in 2006 when DMK won only 92 seats, the then party president, the late M Karunanidhi formed a minority government with outside support.
In a completely unexpected turn of events in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, the TVK has emerged victorious, putting an end to the almost six decade-long dominance of the two major Dravidian parties--DMK and AIADMK.
By clinching victory in its debut electoral contest, the party has elevated its status to that of a recognised political entity. However, the Vijay-led TVK did not secure a mandate large enough to form a government with an absolute majority on its own, requiring another 10 to cross the finish line. Experts have varied opinions.
Specifically, to attain a simple majority, a political party must win at least 118 out of the total 234 constituencies. The TVK, however, secured victory in 108 constituencies. Given that the TVK fell short of the majority mark, what might unfold next?
TVK leader Vijay has won in both constituencies he contested--Perambur in Chennai and Tiruchirappalli East. As per the election commission rule, he will have to resign from one of these seats. TVK sources said that the leader is likely to surrender the Tiruchirappalli assembly seat.
If Vijay does so, the party's total tally of seats will decrease by one. Then it will be 107. Adding to the number games, TVK appointed Speaker of the Assembly will be ineligible to cast a vote during a confidence motion and the party's effective voting strength will be reduced by yet another seat, which comes to 106.
Accordingly, the TVK requires the support of an additional 12 members to demonstrate its majority. As of now, within the DMK alliance, the Congress party has secured five seats, the two Communist parties have won two seats each (totaling four), while the DMDK has secured one seat, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has won two seats and the VCK has secured two seats.
Within the AIADMK alliance, the PMK has grabbed four seats, the BJP has won one seat, and the AMMK has secured one seat. Going by the calculations, if TVK gets the support of other parties within both alliances, it would gain an additional 21 seats.
TVK could potentially secure a total of 129 seats (108 + 21). However, the TVK does not require the support of all those parties, and the backing of just 12 members would suffice.
As Vijay is expected to visit Lok Bhavan on Wednesday (May 6) to meet the governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar to stake claim to form government, the governor is expected to offer the TVK two options.
First, he may summon the TVK chief and instruct him to demonstrate his majority on the floor of the legislative assembly. Alternatively, he might ask Vijay to gather letters of support from "allied" parties and submit them to him.
If the TVK secures support exceeding 118 seats, the governor would invite the party form the government. If TVK fails to garner support from other political parties, it will be denied the opportunity to form the government.
In such a scenario, the governor has the option to invite the DMK, the party holding the second-highest number of seats to form the government.
If DMK too is unable to form a government, the state of Tamil Nadu will come under governor's rule for the subsequent six months. Following this period, fresh legislative Assembly elections will be once again held across all 234 constituencies.
Another political analyst Durai Karuna ruled out that TVK will go for a minority government.
"If he (Vijay) gives an appeal, many political parties including Congress, VCK and left parties will join TVK", he claimed. "In addition, the AIADMK, which has decided to organise MLAs meeting on Wednesday, might also announce that it would support TVK unconditionally".
He said a clear picture on Vijay's decision will emerge in a couple of days.
Tharasu Shyam, political critic, claimed that Congress was "holding talks with Vijay."
"From now on, the DMK must change its approach and this applies equally to the AIADMK," he said in an apparent reference to some reported difference of opinion between allies DMK and Congress over seat-sharing and power-sharing ahead of the April 23 polls.
Incidentally, AICC in-charge for Tamil Nadu, Girish Chodankar, on Tuesday admitted that the Congress party leadership's decision to stick with the DMK alliance went against strong grassroots sentiment favouring the TVK.
"The local leaders, the grassroots level leaders, were suggesting if Rahul Gandhi, who has a large acceptance in Tamil Nadu, joins the campaign with Vijay, it will create a big impact and we can sweep the Tamil Nadu polls, and get somewhere around 180-190 seats," Chodankar told PTI Videos.
