Was Corona Vaccination Evidence-Based?
Part-1
New Delhi: A few weeks ago, AstraZeneca, the company that developed the ChAdOx1-S/nCoV-19 [recombinant] vaccine, 175 crore doses of which were given in India under the name Covishield, admitted in a London court that its vaccine could have caused blood clots, heart attacks, and strokes, and later, on May 5, 2024, said it was withdrawing that vaccine. People who have lost their loved ones due to side effects or who have suffered serious or permanent disabilities are filing lawsuits against the makers of COVID vaccine companies in many parts of the world seeking compensation. Such cases have also been filed in India in the past and the statement by AstraZeneca has added new momentum to these complaints.
As the company acknowledged the serious consequences of the vaccine, the anxiety, suspicion and anger of those who had received the vaccine have increased further. While the government that gave the vaccine and the company that produced and sold it have remained silent, the doctors who supported and encouraged the vaccination are now struggling to offer justifications.
Was COVID-19 the worst, deadliest infection ever? Could the highly contagious corona virus have been prevented by a vaccine? Was it appropriate to vaccinate while the Corona infection was rapidly spreading? Was it necessary to vaccinate even those who had already been infected with the new Coronavirus? Was it necessary to vaccinate young and healthy adults? Was there clear evidence about the safety of new corona vaccines?
If the answer to all these questions is ‘yes’ then it was right to give the vaccine, if the answer is ‘no’ then the vaccine should not have been given.
Was COVID-19 the worst, deadliest disease? No, and that was known in January 2020 itself, within two months of the spread of SARS CoV2 virus. It was by then estimated that the risk of death from the new corona infection could be 3 to 20 per million among those under the age of 50, and more than 60 per million for those over 50 (this estimate was so accurate that deaths from COVID in 38 countries before the vaccines were introduced were less than a third of this initial estimate!). Only on the basis of such estimates some of us had argued that young adults did not need any vaccine at all as the chances of serious problems from corona infection were expected to be very low in that age group. But ignoring all the evidence, everyone from children to the elderly was given the vaccine. Covishield and Covaxin were given to those above adolescence, and Corbevax vaccine, which was not used elsewhere, was given emergency use authorisation for vaccinating younger children.
Instead of answering whether a vaccine could prevent the transmission of coronavirus, which easily spreads from one to six people through inhalation, many new narratives were created. Initial reports claimed that the Corona vaccines are 78 percent effective against symptomatic infection, 86 percent against hospital and ICU admissions, and 87-100 percent against death. But as days rolled by, these positions changed, and it was stated that the vaccines cannot be guaranteed to prevent infection, and more new vaccines may be needed as new variants evolve. In the same breath, it was also stated On the back of that, the vaccine will prevent the spread of corona, it was continued to be said that everyone should be vaccinated, and this was escalated further to the extent that the media and else started campaigning that those who were not vaccinated would endanger the entire community, children who could not be vaccinated would be a danger to teachers, so schools should be closed, those who were not vaccinated should not travel anywhere, should not be allowed to enter anywhere, not even to go to playgrounds, schools, or even hospitals, not work as nurses, in general, it was portrayed as though the unvaccinated were sociopaths, had no right to live, and were ostracised, fired from jobs, even arrested. In India, within days of the vaccination drive for the public from April 2021, instead of decreasing, the spread of Corona started to rise again, hitting as the second wave, proving the futility of vaccination as a measure to control transmission of SARS CoV2.
Was it appropriate to vaccinate while the Corona epidemic was spreading rapidly? It was for the first time in human history that a vaccine for a highly contagious, minimally harmful coronavirus was developed in haste, and given to everyone while the infection was spreading, even though it was not guaranteed to prevent infection. It is not easy to understand the logic behind the grand plan to vaccinate hundreds of crores of people with two doses of vaccine to prevent an infection that spreads easily to one to six people from an infected person! Whatever, the virus infected everyone much faster than the vaccine, and even for the already infected individuals, the vaccine was also injected!
It is common knowledge that infection with any virus, including Corona, confers lifelong immunity. In India, by December 2020 the central government had said that 40 percent of the people had been infected with Corona, and the Hon'ble Prime Minister had announced on January 18, 2021 that India had successfully won the war against Corona. If that was indeed the case, we asked, what was the need to vaccinate 40-60% of Indians who had developed immunity against infection? In natural infection, with the body being exposed to innumerable viral particles, strong immunity is produced against all 29 proteins of the virus, and antibodies are developed against not only its spike protein, but also against other proteins, whereas, following vaccination, our body gets exposed to a limited amount of selected viral particles, spike protein alone in the case of SARS CoV2, and develops limited immunity, that too unproven. Despite these facts, a new argument was floated all over, without any evidence, that the new Corona vaccines would provide stronger protection than the natural infection! Although it was clearly established that the vaccine did not prevent infection or provide better and longer immunity from the original strain or variants, or re-infection, even those who had recovered from the infection were pushed into vaccination even though it was clearly established that those already infected had good, long-term immunity and the chance of re-infection was very small.
By the time the Corona vaccine was available, a year's experience with Corona infection was available globally, including in India. By then it was clear that there were no complications in younger and healthy adults. Therefore, many of us opposed the plans to vaccinate all such people. In our country 85 percent of people, or 115 crore people, being below the age of 50, would not have needed this vaccination. Even among the remaining 20 crore people above that age, if 40 percent had already been infected and recovered, vaccination would not have been necessary. Excluding these, only about 12 crore people above the age of 50, and those above 35 years of age with problems such as obesity, diabetes, heart disease etc. would have required the vaccination, if at all. We also filed a public interest petition in the state high court questioning the statement of the then higher education minister Ashwathanarayan that students who had not been vaccinated could not come to college from June 2021. But the government did not consider any of these, and most of the doctors also mocked and opposed.
There was no clear evidence that the new corona vaccines were safe. After the new coronavirus was identified in December 2019, the viral genome sequence was identified and published by Chinese scientists on January 12, 2020. Immediately thereafter the race for making a vaccine against it also began, and many types of vaccines were prepared using technologies that had not been used until then. According to the US CDC, it takes at least 10-15 years for a vaccine to be developed, tested in three phases, approved and put into use. But the new corona vaccines were developed in just six months, tested in just a couple of months, without much studies on safety and long-term side effects, and were given emergency use authorizations, all within one year.
The first vaccines from China and Russia arrived in July-August 2020. By the end of December 2020, the vaccine developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca was approved by European countries, and vaccination soon started in countries like England and Denmark. Serum Institute of India, the largest vaccine manufacturer, obtained the licence from AstraZeneca to produce the same vaccine and offer it in India under the name of Covishield. India's own Bharat Biotech company developed its own vaccine (Covaxin) in collaboration with ICMR and went for approval. Our government, caught up in the vaccine race, hastily held meetings in early January 2021 and approved the emergency use of both of these vaccines even before reports of the studies done in our country were available.
When EUA was given to Covishield, reports of tests conducted in India hadn’t been published and the EUA was given on the basis of studies conducted in Britain, Brazil and Africa. For Covaxin, EUA was given in ‘clinical trial mode’, after only phase 2 trials, under the pretext of ‘the need for such a vaccine to control a British variant’, and the vaccine recipients were to be the subjects of its phase 3 trials!
The emergency use authorisation for these two vaccines was questioned and opposed by many experts, and the owners of those vaccine companies had a public spat. While Aadar Poonawala of Covishield pooh-poohed Covaxin, stating it was nothing more than water, Krishna Ella of Covaxin termed the studies on Covishield as poorly designed and stated that it had side effects in 60-70% of recipients! Senior vaccine scientist Dr. Gagandeep Kang declared her refusal to take either of these two vaccines, pointing out that reports of the trials conducted in India on Covishield hadn’t been published, nor any information was available on Covaxin. Senior virologist Dr. Jacob John declared that he won't take Covishield due to reported side effects. Senior immunologist Dr. Vineeta Bal termed it unethical and Hitlerian to start using vaccines without evidence of their ability to prevent infection. Senior virologist Dr. Shahid Jameel questioned the manner in which these vaccines were given authorisation. Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist of the World Health Organization, said that universal use of vaccines couldn’t be allowed until the minimum standards of efficacy and safety were guaranteed. (I wrote all this in an article titled 'Is there an urgent need for a vaccine for a non-emergency corona infection?' published in Varthabharati on January 15, 2021). After a few months, most of them quietened down or changed their positions, even the fight between the vaccine makers went cold!
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India, Ethiopia elevate ties to strategic partnership as PM Modi holds talks with his counterpart
Addis Ababa (PTI): India and Ethiopia on Tuesday elevated their historical ties to a strategic partnership, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi held wide-ranging talks with his Ethiopian counterpart Abiy Ahmed Ali during which they discussed issues of bilateral and mutual interest.
Modi, who arrived here from Jordan on his maiden bilateral visit, was accorded a ceremonial welcome at the National Palace ahead of the bilateral talks, reflecting the vibrant India-Ethiopia relations rooted in shared history and a promising future.
"We are elevating India and Ethiopia relations to a strategic partnership. This step will provide new energy, new momentum and new depth to our ties," Prime Minister Modi said during the delegation-level talks.
He thanked PM Ali for his support in India's fight against terrorism. "The support of friendly countries in this struggle against terrorism holds great significance," Modi said.
"Today, we got the opportunity to deliberate on the key aspects of our cooperation, such as economy, innovation, technology, defence, health, capacity-building and multilateral cooperation. I am pleased that today, we have decided to double the student scholarship for Ethiopia in India," Modi said.
Modi said that India and Ethiopia have shared contact, dialogue, and exchange for thousands of years. The two countries, which are rich in languages and traditions, are symbols of unity in diversity, he added.
"Both countries are democratic powers committed to peace and the welfare of humanity. We are co-travellers and partners of the Global South. On international platforms, we have stood shoulder-to-shoulder," he said.
The two sides signed eight MoUs/agreements, including upgrading ties to 'Strategic Partnership', customs cooperation, establishing data center at the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry, UN Peacekeeping training cooperation, debt restructuring under G20, more ICCR scholarships and AI short courses for Ethiopians, and support for maternal and neonatal healthcare.
Modi said the African Union's headquarters in Ethiopia makes the country a meeting point of African diplomacy. "Inspired by the common vision of an inclusive world, in 2023, India ensured that the African Union became a G20 member," he said.
In 2023, during India’s G20 Presidency, the African Union was admitted as a permanent member of the G20.
Modi said that though this is his first visit, he felt a deep sense of belonging and warmth, reflecting the thousands of years of connection between the two countries.
On his part, Prime Minister Ali said the two countries share over thousands of years of connection through trade, diplomacy, education, culture and even in our food and traditions. "These ties continue to shape a deep friendship, collaboration and mutual respect between our people," he said.
"We also appreciate your consistent message that Africa's priorities must lead the partnership. These kinds of dignified, respectful messages for Africa are very important. Mr Prime Minister, keep pushing. That is the type of message we are expecting from all our trusted friends," Ali said.
He said this aligned fully with Ethiopia's development plan - African-owned, African-led, and African-defined.
"Today, we meet with a clear focus to shape a modern partnership, grounded in sovereignty, self-reliance and practical cooperation. Our cooperation is rooted in equality and South-South solidarity," he said.
"Our economy is performing strongly. Last year, we grew 9.2% and this year we are expecting 10.3% GDP growth. Besides GDP growth, our FDI inflow is also rising big time. India is the leading source for our FDI," he said.
"We have more than 615 Indian companies which are investing in Ethiopia. This all gives our cooperation a strong foundation of trust. I think our decision today that we elevate our historic relationship to a strategic relationship is the right decision," he added.
Ethiopia also conferred its highest award - The Great Honour Nishan of Ethiopia - on PM Modi. He is the first global head of state to receive this award.
Prime Minister Modi also went to the Friendship Park and Friendship Square in Addis Ababa with PM Ali.
In a warm and special gesture, PM Modi was earlier received by his Ethiopian counterpart at the airport and accorded a warm and colourful welcome.
"Ethiopia is a nation with great history and vibrant culture," Modi said.
PM Ali informed his Indian counterpart about the varieties of Ethiopian coffee during informal talks.
"At Addis Ababa airport, took part in a traditional Coffee Ceremony with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali. The ceremony beautifully highlights Ethiopia’s rich heritage," Modi said.
In a unique gesture, the Ethiopian Prime Minister drove Modi to the hotel.
On the way, he took a special initiative of taking PM Modi to the Science Museum and Friendship Park, which was not in the itinerary.
"Gratitude to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali for showing me glimpses of Ethiopian history and culture at the National Palace Museum in Addis Ababa. It was a powerful reminder of Ethiopia’s rich traditions," Modi said in a post on X.
The Nobel Peace Prize-winning Ethiopian PM’s special gestures show remarkable respect for Modi, sources said.
"Thank you Ethiopia for a welcome that was unforgettable. The Indian community showed remarkable warmth and affection. India-Ethiopia friendship is going to get even more robust in the times to come," Modi said.
When Modi arrived at the hotel, he was warmly welcomed by the members of the Indian community. Local artists performed dances. Some of them danced on the theme of the popular Hindi song 'Aisa Des Hai Mera' to welcome him.
On Wednesday, Modi will address the Joint Session of Parliament and share his thoughts on India's journey as the "Mother of Democracy" and the value that the India-Ethiopia partnership can bring to the Global South.
PM Modi arrived in Ethiopia from Jordan, where he held a one-on-one meeting with King Abdullah II at the Husseiniya Palace on Monday before the delegation-level talks.
India and Jordan also inked MoUs in the fields of culture, renewable energy, water management, digital public infrastructure and twinning arrangement between Petra and Ellora, aimed at giving a major boost to bilateral ties and friendship.
From Ethiopia, Modi will visit Oman on the final leg of this three-nation tour.
