Wayanad landslides: Studies point to deadly mix of climate change, environmental neglect
New Delhi (PTI): Climate change, fragile terrain and loss of forest cover created the perfect recipe for the devastating landslides in Kerala's Wayanad district that claimed 123 lives, according to studies conducted over the years.
Extremely heavy rain triggered a series of landslides in the hilly areas of Wayanad early Tuesday. While 128 people were injured, many are feared trapped under the debris.
According to the landslide atlas released by the Indian Space Research Organisation's (ISRO) National Remote Sensing Centre last year, 10 out of the 30 most landslide-prone districts in India were in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked 13th.
It said 0.09 million square kilometres in the Western Ghats and the Konkan hills (Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra) were prone to landslides.
"The vulnerability of inhabitants and households is more significant in the Western Ghats due to the very high population and household density, especially in Kerala," the report read.
A study published by Springer in 2021 said all landslide hotspots in Kerala were in the Western Ghats region and concentrated in Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts.
It said about 59 per cent of total landslides in Kerala occurred in plantation areas.
A 2022 study on depleting forest cover in Wayanad showed that 62 per cent of forests in the district disappeared between 1950 and 2018 while plantation cover rose by around 1,800 per cent.
The study, published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, said around 85 per cent of the total area of Wayanad was under forest cover until the 1950s.
According to scientists, climate change was increasing the possibility of landslides in the Western Ghats, one of the eight "hottest hotspots" of biological diversity in the world.
S Abhilash, director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), told PTI that warming of the Arabian Sea was allowing the formation of deep cloud systems, leading to extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala in a short period and increasing the possibility of landslides.
"Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above this region, including Kerala, to become thermodynamically unstable," Abhilash said.
"This atmospheric instability, allowing the formation of deep clouds, is linked to climate change. Earlier, this kind of rainfall was more common in the northern Konkan belt, north of Mangalore," he added.
Research by Abhilash and other scientists published in the npj Climate and Atmospheric Science journal in 2022 found that rainfall over the west coast of India was becoming more convective.
Convective rainfall is often characterised by intense, short-duration showers or thunderstorms in a small area.
Another study by Abhilash and scientists from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and the India Meteorological Department, published in Elsevier in 2021, found that one of the hotspots of heavy rainfall in the Konkan region (between 14 degrees north and 16 degrees north) seemed to have shifted southward, with likely fatal consequences.
"An increase in rainfall intensity may suggest a rising probability of landslides in the high to mid-land slopes of the Western Ghats in eastern Kerala during the monsoon seasons," the study said.
The landslides also brought to the fore the unheeded warnings of the "Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel" set up by the government under ecologist Madhav Gadgil.
The panel submitted its report to the Centre in 2011, recommending that the entire hill range be declared an ecologically sensitive area and divided into ecologically sensitive zones based on their ecological sensitivity.
It recommended a ban on mining, quarrying, new thermal power plants, hydropower projects and large-scale wind energy projects in ecologically sensitive zone 1.
The recommendations have not been implemented even after 14 years due to resistance from state governments, industries and local communities.
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No confusion in BJP-JD(S) alliance: Kumaraswamy
Bengaluru (PTI): Union Minister H D Kumaraswamy on Saturday dismissed speculation over confusion in the BJP-JD(S) alliance, asserting that there was clarity within them and that discussions on the chief minister post were premature.
Addressing reporters at the party's state office, JP Bhavan, after chairing a preparatory meeting for the Greater Bengaluru Authority (GBA) elections, he said the immediate priority was to remove what he termed an "anti-people government" in the state and to strengthen the alliance to face upcoming polls.
"This is not the time to discuss who should become the chief minister. There is still time for that. If we speak about it now, it would be like stitching the cradle even before the baby is born," Kumaraswamy said, underlining that leadership questions would be taken up at an appropriate time.
The JD(S) second-in-command said there is still a lot of work to be done and it was not appropriate to speak about such matters now.
"On the issue of alliance, both I and our party are open-minded. When the time comes, we will discuss it on the party platform and take a decision. There is no confusion regarding the alliance, and there will be no confusion in the future. This is my stand," Kumaraswamy said.
"There is a bad government in the state. My objective is to remove it and bring in a pro-people government. Removing this corrupt and bad government is my agenda. The JD(S) and BJP parties will work together to accomplish this task," he added.
Reiterating his stand, Kumaraswamy said, "My objective is to remove the anti-people government in the state. I have been saying this from the beginning."
On reports of internal differences over the alliance and the CM's position, the union minister said he would not respond to every statement made by individuals.
"Some people are speaking about the alliance and the chief minister's position. I do not feel the need to respond to them. If I start answering each of them, people may think I lack maturity. Therefore, I will not speak about it. We will strengthen the alliance together, face the elections together, and bring a pro-people government," he said.
Kumaraswamy added that discussions within parties were natural and not final.
He said there were still two years left for the Assembly elections while there were four to five months left for the local body elections.
The union minister said the JD(S) is also preparing for the municipal elections in Bengaluru city just as other parties.
He clarified that there had been no discussions so far between the two parties specifically on local body or GBA elections.
Earlier, the JD(S) leader chaired a meeting with Members of the Legislative Council, former MLAs and other leaders of his party to review preparations for the GBA elections.
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