Chief of Defence Staff flags global changes creating uncertainty, volatile environment
Bengaluru (PTI): Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan on Saturday said the ongoing geo-political, economic and technological changes are creating uncertainty in the world, and an environment that is volatile, complex and ambiguous.
He said nations are preparing themselves for this uncertain kind of future and it is reflective in most of their national security strategies and defence spending.
The CDS delivered the 14th Air Chief Marshal LM Katre Memorial Lecture organised by Air Force Association (Karnataka Branch), in association with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) here.
"If you have a look at national security strategies, countries like -- Japan, France, Germany, (the) UK, Poland, South Korea, Bangladesh and many others have revived their national security strategies. They actually revived at the time of the Ukraine conflict, but now bigger change is happening in the Middle East," Chauhan said.
"If you look at defence spending of most of these nations they have expanded, almost doubled it up," he pointed out.
Whether the defence industry globally is ready to meet the demand of these nations, that remains to be seen, the CDS said.
"This is where I say, lies a bit of opportunity for us. The environment which is shaping creates an opportunity for the defence industry for the future."
Pointing to the change in the nature and character of warfare, which is technology driven, with domains like -- space, cyber-- he said, "we have to be prepared for it."
"The change which is happening is inevitable and India, like others, is at the major crossroads of history and actions that we take today will define India's status in the next 25 years," Chauhan said.
He also said, "when we look at the military preparedness of the nation, we are looking at a strong army, navy and air force , also space and cyberspace."
Averring that currently the global geo-political environment is in a state of flux, the CDS said, " in fact the world will be transiting between two orders, the old order is withering away, and the shapes and contours of the new world order are yet to stabilise. To predict how it will be in the times to come will be rather difficult."
Explaining about the current geo-political environment, he said that he feels that the geopolitical importance of Russia will go down in times to come, in spite of it being a major nuclear power.
China presently occupies an important place in the geo-economic world order, it was the fastest growing economy, and its economic lift is now visible in the political domain and diplomatic domain also -- with them brokering a rapprochement between Saudi and Iran, Chauhan said.
"It is also reflected in their military power, the greenshoots of this is already visible in the South China sea and in our northern borders. So, we will see a more assertive China in the times to come."
"Of course, there will be convergence of interests between Russians and the Chinese and some other countries like North Korea and Iran may also join this bandwagon in the times to come. Chinese and Russians have already declared that their friendship has no limits," he pointed out.
Indo-Pacific is fast emerging, the CDS said, it's an area of future contestation. "in fact if you see national security strategies of most nations, they will talk about Indo-Pacific," he said.
Suggesting that there will be emergence of a multipolar world order, he said we can witness a polycentric and polyconic competition and cooperation.
"How this will pan out -- there will be no permanent friends and no permanent enemies, and this relationship between friends and enemies of nations will evolve faster than ever before. Partnership and new alliances will emerge amid this changing security environment. Expansion of NATO, Quad etc are only indications of this."
Chauhan further said India may emerge as the leader of the global south, and the successful conduct of the G 20 presidency is actually an indication in that direction.
Pointing at uncertainties due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in Middle-East, Libya, Syria and others, he said, "what people are saying is the world order isn't actually the world order-- it is actually the world disorder, which is presently there."
He also spoke about geo-economic disruptions and geo-technological disruptions that are taking place.
On the military reforms that are taking place, which started with the appointment of CDS, Chauhan said creation of theatre commands is fundamental and a major change that is going to happen in the time to come, whenever we are prepared for this.
"We had been doing things in a particular way from independence till now, where three service chiefs are responsible to meet the challenges in their particular domain. This is going to fundamentally change now and the responsibilities will rest theater commanders with theatre command coming into force. This is a major change that is going to happen in the times to come," he said.
With theaterisation there will also be jointness and integration simultaneously, he added.
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Netanyahu recommends his Cabinet approve Hezbollah cease-fire proposal
Beirut, Nov 26: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that he would recommend his cabinet adopt a United States-brokered ceasefire agreement with Lebanon's Hezbollah, as Israeli warplanes struck across Lebanon, killing at least 23 people.
The Israeli military also issued a flurry of evacuation warnings — a sign it was aiming to inflict punishment on Hezbollah down to the final moments before any ceasefire takes hold. For the first time in the conflict, Israeli ground troops reached parts of Lebanon's Litani River, a focal point of the emerging deal.
In a televised statement, Netanyahu said he would present the ceasefire to Cabinet ministers later on Tuesday, setting the stage for an end to nearly 14 months of fighting.
Netanyahu said the vote was expected later Tuesday. It was not immediately clear when the ceasefire would go into effect, and the exact terms of the deal were not released. The deal does not affect Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, which shows no signs of ending.
The evacuation warnings covered many areas, including parts of Beirut that previously have not been targeted. The warnings, coupled with fear that Israel was ratcheting up attacks before a ceasefire, sent residents fleeing. Traffic was gridlocked, and some cars had mattresses tied to them. Dozens of people, some wearing their pajamas, gathered in a central square, huddling under blankets or standing around fires as Israeli drones buzzed loudly overhead.
Hezbollah, meanwhile, kept up its rocket fire, triggering air raid sirens across northern Israel.
Lebanese officials have said Hezbollah also supports the deal. If approved by all sides, the deal would be a major step toward ending the Israel-Hezbollah war that has inflamed tensions across the region and raised fears of an even wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah's patron, Iran.
The deal calls for a two-month initial halt in fighting and would require Hezbollah to end its armed presence in a broad swath of southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops would return to their side of the border. Thousands of Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers would deploy in the south, and an international panel headed by the United States would monitor all sides' compliance.
But implementation remains a major question mark. Israel has demanded the right to act should Hezbollah violate its obligations. Lebanese officials have rejected writing that into the proposal. Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz insisted on Tuesday that the military would strike Hezbollah if the U.N. peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, doesn't provide “effective enforcement” of the deal.
“If you don't act, we will act, and with great force,” Katz said, speaking with UN special envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said Tuesday that Israel's security concerns had been addressed in the deal also brokered by France.
“There is not an excuse for not implementing a ceasefire. Otherwise, Lebanon will fall apart,” Borrell told reporters in Italy on the sidelines of a Group of Seven meeting. He said France would participate on the ceasefire implementation committee at Lebanon's request.
Bombardment of Beirut's southern suburbs continues
Even as Israeli, US, Lebanese and international officials have expressed growing optimism over a ceasefire, Israel has continued its campaign in Lebanon, which it says aims to cripple Hezbollah's military capabilities.
An Israeli strike on Tuesday levelled a residential building in the central Beirut district of Basta — the second time in recent days warplanes have hit the crowded area near the city's downtown. At least seven people were killed and 37 wounded, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry.
Three people were killed in a separate strike in Beirut and three in a strike on a Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon. Lebanese state media said another 10 people were killed in the eastern Baalbek province. Israel says it targets Hezbollah fighters and their infrastructure.
Earlier, Israeli jets struck at least six buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs. One strike slammed near the country's only airport, sending plumes of smoke into the sky. The airport has continued to function despite its location on the Mediterranean coast next to the densely populated suburbs where many of Hezbollah's operations are based.
Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee issued evacuation warnings for 20 buildings in the suburbs, as well as a warning for the southern town of Naqoura where UNIFIL is headquartered.
UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti told The Associated Press that peacekeepers will not evacuate.
Other strikes hit in the southern city of Tyre, where the Israeli military said it killed a local Hezbollah commander.
The Israeli military also said its ground troops clashed with Hezbollah forces and destroyed rocket launchers in the Slouqi area on the eastern end of the Litani River, a few kilometres from the Israeli border.
Previous ceasefire hopes were dashed
Under the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah would be required to move its forces north of the Litani, which in some places is about 30 kilometers (20 miles) north of the border.
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the strongest Iranian-backed force in the region, would likely significantly calm regional tensions that have led to fears of a direct, all-out war between Israel and Iran. It's not clear how the ceasefire will affect the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Hezbollah had long insisted that it would not agree to a ceasefire until the war in Gaza ends, but it dropped that condition.
Hezbollah began firing into northern Israel, saying it was showing support for the Palestinians, a day after Hamas carried out its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, triggering the Gaza war. Israel returned fire on Hezbollah, and the two sides have been exchanging barrages ever since.
Israel escalated its campaign of bombardment in mid-September and later sent troops into Lebanon, vowing to put an end to Hezbollah fire so tens of thousands of evacuated Israelis could return to their homes.
More than 3,760 people have been killed by Israeli fire in Lebanon the past 13 months, many of them civilians, according to Lebanese health officials. The bombardment has driven 1.2 million people from their homes. Israel says it has killed more than 2,000 Hezbollah members.
Hezbollah fire has forced some 50,000 Israelis to evacuate in the country's north, and its rockets have reached as far south in Israel as Tel Aviv. At least 75 people have been killed, more than half of them civilians. More than 50 Israeli soldiers have died in the ground offensive in Lebanon.
After previous hopes for a ceasefire were dashed, U.S. officials cautioned that negotiations were not yet complete and noted there could be last-minute hitches that delay or destroy an agreement.
“Nothing is done until everything is done,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said.
While the ceasefire proposal is expected to be approved if Netanyahu brings it to a vote in his security Cabinet, one hard-line member, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, said he would oppose it. He said on X that a deal with Lebanon would be a “big mistake” and a “missed historic opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah.”
