Novel coronavirus may resemble common cold in future, scientists predict
New Delhi: SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may resemble the mild cold-causing coronaviruses that currently circulate in humans if it becomes endemic and most people are exposed in childhood, according to a study.
The modeling study, published on Tuesday in the journal Science, is based on the research of the four common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-1.
The analysis of the immunological and epidemiological data for these viruses helped the researchers to develop a model to predict the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic when the virus circulates in the general population.
The researchers noted that four common cold-causing coronaviruses have been circulating in humans for a long time and almost everyone is infected at a young age.
Natural infection in childhood provides immunity that protects people later in life against severe disease, but it doesn't prevent periodic reinfection, said Jennie Lavine, from Emory University in the US, first author of the study.
The research suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 may become a disease of early childhood, where the first infection occurs between 3 and 5 years old, and the disease itself would be mild.
Older individuals could still become infected, but their childhood infections would provide immune protection against severe disease, according to the researchers.
How fast this shift comes depends on how fast the virus spreads and what kind of immune response the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines induce, they said.
The model suggests that if the vaccines induce short-lived protection against becoming reinfected but reduce the severity of the disease, as is the case with other endemic coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 may become endemic more quickly.
"This model assumes immunity to SARS-CoV-2 works similar to other human coronaviruses. We don't really know what it would be like if someone got one of the other coronaviruses for the first time as an adult, rather than as a child, Lavine said.
The model predicts that the infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 may fall below that of seasonal influenza (0.1 percent), once an endemic steady-state is reached.
"We are in uncharted territory, but a key take-home message from the study is that immunological indicators suggest that fatality rates and the critical need for broad-scale vaccination may wane in the near term," said Ottar Bjornstad, a professor, and epidemiologist at Penn State.
He noted that maximum effort should be on weathering this virgin pandemic en route to endemicity.
A safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 could save hundreds of thousands of lives in the first year or two of vaccine roll-out, but continued mass vaccination may be less critical once SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, the researchers said.
Targeted vaccination in vulnerable subpopulations may still save lives, they said.
The researchers also noted that if primary infections of children are mild when the virus becomes endemic, widespread vaccination may not be necessary.
However, if primary infections become severe in children, as in the case of more deadly but contained coronaviruses such as MERS, childhood vaccinations should be continued, the added.
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Nepal goes to polls in first general election since govt-toppling Gen Z protests last year
Kathmandu (PTI): Nepalese citizens on Thursday morning started to reach polling booths in all 165 constituencies amid tight security to cast their vote in the crucial general election, the first since a violent Gen Z protest that toppled the K P Sharma Oli-led government last year.
More than 18.9 million eligible Nepalese will be exercising their franchise to elect the 275-member House of Representatives from among the 3,406 candidates vying for 165 seats under direct voting, and 3,135 candidates vying for 110 seats through proportionate voting.
The voting started at 7 am and will conclude at 5 pm. The counting will start immediately after the ballot boxes are collected.
"Voting started in all the constituencies, including the southern plains, hilly area and the mountain region at 7 am," Election Commission spokesperson Narayan Prasad Bhattarai said.
“The election started in a peaceful environment across the country,” he added.
Addressing a press meet here on the eve of the polls, Acting Election Commissioner Ram Prasad Bhandari on Wednesday had said that all preparations for the election had been completed and urged voters to participate actively and enthusiastically in the democratic exercise.
In Kathmandu, the weather was fine, sky was clear and people were enthusiastically queuing up to cast their votes.
The Gen Z youth, through their two-day intensified protests on September 8 and 9, ousted Prime Minister Oli, chair of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) -- CPN-UML -- who was heading a coalition government with the backing of Nepali Congress that enjoyed nearly two-thirds majority support.
After Oli's ouster, President Ramchandra Paudel dissolved the House of Representatives on September 12 and appointed Sushila Karki as the caretaker PM.
The major issues raised by Gen Z are anti-corruption, good governance, an end to nepotism, generational change in political leadership, etc.
Starting Wednesday, Nepal has declared a three-day holiday for the polls.
There are a total of 10,967 polling booths and 23,112 polling centres, the Election Commission data showed. As many as 65 political parties are taking part in the election.
