Novel coronavirus may resemble common cold in future, scientists predict
New Delhi: SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may resemble the mild cold-causing coronaviruses that currently circulate in humans if it becomes endemic and most people are exposed in childhood, according to a study.
The modeling study, published on Tuesday in the journal Science, is based on the research of the four common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-1.
The analysis of the immunological and epidemiological data for these viruses helped the researchers to develop a model to predict the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic when the virus circulates in the general population.
The researchers noted that four common cold-causing coronaviruses have been circulating in humans for a long time and almost everyone is infected at a young age.
Natural infection in childhood provides immunity that protects people later in life against severe disease, but it doesn't prevent periodic reinfection, said Jennie Lavine, from Emory University in the US, first author of the study.
The research suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 may become a disease of early childhood, where the first infection occurs between 3 and 5 years old, and the disease itself would be mild.
Older individuals could still become infected, but their childhood infections would provide immune protection against severe disease, according to the researchers.
How fast this shift comes depends on how fast the virus spreads and what kind of immune response the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines induce, they said.
The model suggests that if the vaccines induce short-lived protection against becoming reinfected but reduce the severity of the disease, as is the case with other endemic coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 may become endemic more quickly.
"This model assumes immunity to SARS-CoV-2 works similar to other human coronaviruses. We don't really know what it would be like if someone got one of the other coronaviruses for the first time as an adult, rather than as a child, Lavine said.
The model predicts that the infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 may fall below that of seasonal influenza (0.1 percent), once an endemic steady-state is reached.
"We are in uncharted territory, but a key take-home message from the study is that immunological indicators suggest that fatality rates and the critical need for broad-scale vaccination may wane in the near term," said Ottar Bjornstad, a professor, and epidemiologist at Penn State.
He noted that maximum effort should be on weathering this virgin pandemic en route to endemicity.
A safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 could save hundreds of thousands of lives in the first year or two of vaccine roll-out, but continued mass vaccination may be less critical once SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, the researchers said.
Targeted vaccination in vulnerable subpopulations may still save lives, they said.
The researchers also noted that if primary infections of children are mild when the virus becomes endemic, widespread vaccination may not be necessary.
However, if primary infections become severe in children, as in the case of more deadly but contained coronaviruses such as MERS, childhood vaccinations should be continued, the added.
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LoP Ashoka targets CM govt over corruption, says being 'shameless' in public life not forgivable
Bengaluru (PTI): Targeting Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and the Congress government in Karnataka on corruption, BJP leader R Ashoka on Friday said, being foolish was forgivable, but being "shameless" in public life was not.
The Leader of Opposition in the state Assembly claimed that in just 30 months of its tenure, the Congress administration has broken every previous record on corruption-related controversies.
He was responding to Siddaramaiah's post on 'X' on Thursday hitting back at the BJP, stating that Upa Lokayukta Justice Veerappa's claims of "63 per cent corruption" were based on his report in November 2019, when BJP's B S Yediyurappa was the CM.
"But Ashoka, without understanding the Upa Lokayukta's statement properly, has ended up tying the BJP's own bells of sins onto our heads and has effectively shot himself in the foot," the CM had said, as he accused Ashoka of foolishness for trying to twist Veerappa's statement to target the current government.
Responding, Ashoka said, "it is one thing to be called foolish in politics, that can be forgiven."
"But in public life, especially in the Chief Minister's chair, one must never become shameless," Ashoka posted on 'X' on Friday addressing Siddaramaiah.
Noting that the CM himself had admitted on the floor of the Assembly that a Rs 87 crore scam took place in the Valmiki Development Corporation, he said that when a CM acknowledges such a massive irregularity inside the floor of the House, the natural expectation is immediate action and accountability.
"But instead of taking responsibility, you continue in office as if nothing has happened. What should the people of Karnataka call this, if not sheer shamelessness," he asked.
Pointing out that the CM's Economic Advisor and senior Congress MLA Basavaraja Rayareddy had publicly stated that under Congress rule, Karnataka has become No.1 in corruption, Ashoka said, "Yet, you still cling to the Chief Minister's chair without a moment of introspection. What should the people of Karnataka call this, if not sheer shamelessness."
Senior Congress MLA C R Patil had exposed the "money for House" racket in the Housing Department and even warned that the government would collapse if the details he has were made public, Ashoka said.
"Despite such serious allegations from within your own party (Congress), you neither initiated an inquiry nor acted against the concerned minister. What should the people of Karnataka call this, if not sheer shamelessness," Ashoka asked the CM.
Highlighting the "40 percent commission" allegation Congress made against the previous BJP government, the opposition leader said, the commission that the Siddaramaiah government appointed concluded that the accusation was baseless.
"After your own panel demolished your own claim, what moral right do you have to continue repeating that allegation. What should the people of Karnataka call this, if not sheer shamelessness," he asked.
For the last two and a half years, Karnataka has been 'drowning' in corruption, scandals, irregularities and allegations across departments. Ashoka said, "If I begin listing every case that emerged under your government, even 24 hours would not be enough."
"And the most tragic aspect of your administration is this: the unbearable pressure, corruption demands and administrative harassment under your government pushed several officers and contractors into extreme distress - including the suicide of Chandrasekharan which exposed the Valmiki Development Corporation scam - a sign of how deeply broken the system has become under your watch," he said.
Instead of fixing this hopeless environment, the government has tried to bury every complaint and silence every voice, he charged.
"Being foolish is forgivable, but being shameless in public life is definitely not."
"When your own ministers admit scams, when your own advisors certify Karnataka as No.1 in corruption, and when your own MLAs expose rackets inside your departments - clinging to power without accountability is not leadership. It is shamelessness in its purest form." PTI KSU
Earlier on Thursday Ashoka had demanded that the corruption case and allegations in the state against the Congress government be handed over to a CBI investigation, citing a reported statement by Upalokaykta Justice Veerappa alleging "63 per cent corruption", following which Siddaramaiah hit back at the BJP leader.
