Novel coronavirus may resemble common cold in future, scientists predict
New Delhi: SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may resemble the mild cold-causing coronaviruses that currently circulate in humans if it becomes endemic and most people are exposed in childhood, according to a study.
The modeling study, published on Tuesday in the journal Science, is based on the research of the four common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-1.
The analysis of the immunological and epidemiological data for these viruses helped the researchers to develop a model to predict the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic when the virus circulates in the general population.
The researchers noted that four common cold-causing coronaviruses have been circulating in humans for a long time and almost everyone is infected at a young age.
Natural infection in childhood provides immunity that protects people later in life against severe disease, but it doesn't prevent periodic reinfection, said Jennie Lavine, from Emory University in the US, first author of the study.
The research suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 may become a disease of early childhood, where the first infection occurs between 3 and 5 years old, and the disease itself would be mild.
Older individuals could still become infected, but their childhood infections would provide immune protection against severe disease, according to the researchers.
How fast this shift comes depends on how fast the virus spreads and what kind of immune response the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines induce, they said.
The model suggests that if the vaccines induce short-lived protection against becoming reinfected but reduce the severity of the disease, as is the case with other endemic coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 may become endemic more quickly.
"This model assumes immunity to SARS-CoV-2 works similar to other human coronaviruses. We don't really know what it would be like if someone got one of the other coronaviruses for the first time as an adult, rather than as a child, Lavine said.
The model predicts that the infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 may fall below that of seasonal influenza (0.1 percent), once an endemic steady-state is reached.
"We are in uncharted territory, but a key take-home message from the study is that immunological indicators suggest that fatality rates and the critical need for broad-scale vaccination may wane in the near term," said Ottar Bjornstad, a professor, and epidemiologist at Penn State.
He noted that maximum effort should be on weathering this virgin pandemic en route to endemicity.
A safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 could save hundreds of thousands of lives in the first year or two of vaccine roll-out, but continued mass vaccination may be less critical once SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, the researchers said.
Targeted vaccination in vulnerable subpopulations may still save lives, they said.
The researchers also noted that if primary infections of children are mild when the virus becomes endemic, widespread vaccination may not be necessary.
However, if primary infections become severe in children, as in the case of more deadly but contained coronaviruses such as MERS, childhood vaccinations should be continued, the added.
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Congress Corporator's daughter stabbed to death inside college campus in Hubballi
Hubballi (Karnataka), Apr 18: The daughter of a Congress Corporator was stabbed to death by her acquaintance inside BVB college campus here on Thursday after she allegedly rejected his proposal, police said.
The deceased Neha (23), the daughter of Niranjan Hiremath, was a first-year MCA student, they said.
The accused 23-year-old Fayaz, an MCA dropout, has been arrested in connection with the incident, police said, adding that both of them were batchmates during their BCA course.
The entire incident was caught on CCTV camera.
According to the police, Fayaz went inside the college campus with a knife and stabbed Neha five-six times. During the attack, he too sustained injuries and was shifted to the hospital along with the victim. At the hospital, Neha was declared brought dead.
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"During interrogation, he (Fayaz) claimed that the two of them had been in a relationship and that she had suddenly started avoiding him. It needs to be corroborated and verified, but he was arrested immediately," a senior police officer said.
A case of murder has been registered, police said, adding that further investigation is underway.
Narrating about the incident, Neha's father Hiremath said that his daughter had classes from 8 am. At around 4.30 pm, when she stepped out after completing her classes, this person approached towards her and stabbed her nearly six times inside the college campus and she died on the spot.
"He (the accused) was an old student and he had proposed my daughter but she rejected his proposal. She did not like him and she usually stayed away from all this...She refused him saying they both belonged to different caste and that she did not wish to have any relationship with him. Out of anger, he stabbed my daughter," he told PTI videos.
Demanding justice for her daughter, he said that the accused should he hanged to death only then will his daughter's soul rest in peace.
Meanwhile, Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah condemned the incident and offered condolences to the family of the deceased.
"An accused has already been arrested in connection with the incident and I have instructed the Director General of Police to conduct a strict investigation and take action to ensure maximum punishment for the accused," he said in a post on 'X'.
He also appealed to people to not take law into their hands.
"In connection with the incident, no one should get agitated and take law into their hands or attempt to disturb peace of the society. It is our duty to get justice for the death of the young woman, in this regard the police department will work hard," he added.
