Novel coronavirus may resemble common cold in future, scientists predict
New Delhi: SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may resemble the mild cold-causing coronaviruses that currently circulate in humans if it becomes endemic and most people are exposed in childhood, according to a study.
The modeling study, published on Tuesday in the journal Science, is based on the research of the four common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-1.
The analysis of the immunological and epidemiological data for these viruses helped the researchers to develop a model to predict the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic when the virus circulates in the general population.
The researchers noted that four common cold-causing coronaviruses have been circulating in humans for a long time and almost everyone is infected at a young age.
Natural infection in childhood provides immunity that protects people later in life against severe disease, but it doesn't prevent periodic reinfection, said Jennie Lavine, from Emory University in the US, first author of the study.
The research suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 may become a disease of early childhood, where the first infection occurs between 3 and 5 years old, and the disease itself would be mild.
Older individuals could still become infected, but their childhood infections would provide immune protection against severe disease, according to the researchers.
How fast this shift comes depends on how fast the virus spreads and what kind of immune response the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines induce, they said.
The model suggests that if the vaccines induce short-lived protection against becoming reinfected but reduce the severity of the disease, as is the case with other endemic coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 may become endemic more quickly.
"This model assumes immunity to SARS-CoV-2 works similar to other human coronaviruses. We don't really know what it would be like if someone got one of the other coronaviruses for the first time as an adult, rather than as a child, Lavine said.
The model predicts that the infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 may fall below that of seasonal influenza (0.1 percent), once an endemic steady-state is reached.
"We are in uncharted territory, but a key take-home message from the study is that immunological indicators suggest that fatality rates and the critical need for broad-scale vaccination may wane in the near term," said Ottar Bjornstad, a professor, and epidemiologist at Penn State.
He noted that maximum effort should be on weathering this virgin pandemic en route to endemicity.
A safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 could save hundreds of thousands of lives in the first year or two of vaccine roll-out, but continued mass vaccination may be less critical once SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, the researchers said.
Targeted vaccination in vulnerable subpopulations may still save lives, they said.
The researchers also noted that if primary infections of children are mild when the virus becomes endemic, widespread vaccination may not be necessary.
However, if primary infections become severe in children, as in the case of more deadly but contained coronaviruses such as MERS, childhood vaccinations should be continued, the added.
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I forgot that I can use saliva, but will use it from now on: RCB's Bhuvneshwar Kumar
Bengaluru, Apr 17 (PTI): Fast bowlers often have elephantine memory but Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s Bhuvneshwar Kumar rather sheepishly conceded that he has forgotten to use saliva to shine the ball despite the redrafted rules, and promised to make amends in the IPL match against Punjab Kings here on Friday.
In the run-up to this season’s IPL, the BCCI had lifted the ban on using saliva as a ball polishing agent after several captains favoured the move.
The saliva ban was enforced during the COVID-19 pandemic days as a precautionary measure.
Now, several skippers and quick bowlers have felt that it will revive the forgotten art of reverse swing, but Bhuvneshwar offered a different perspective.
“I forgot that I can use saliva. Yesterday when the (team) staff told me, I didn't know that I have to use it,” a sheepish Bhuvneshwar said on the eve of the match against Punjab Kings.
But now, there is a late realisation and he is open to experimentation.
“I am not sure if it will help or not, but now that I remember, definitely in tomorrow's match (vs PBKS) I will put some saliva and see if it helps or not," he said with a chuckle.
However, some of his contemporaries have eagerly latched on to the opportunity to purchase some reverse swing to keep the batters guessing.
Mitchell Starc of Delhi Capitals found a hint of reverse swing against Rajasthan Royals on Wednesday while homing in on the stumps with a series of yorkers in the 20th over and later in the Super Over.
Starc’s remarkable accuracy and the touch of reverse swing played a big role in DC eking out a Super Over win at the Arun Jaitely Stadium in the national capital.
“Reverse swing had completely gone away from cricket, whether it was red ball or white ball. Suddenly, if someone can execute 11 yorkers in 12 balls at a 145 (kmph) pace, then you have to give Starc the credit,” said RR’s Nitish Rana, who fell leg before to the Australian fast bowler.
Delhi’s skipper Axar Patel also offered some insight.
“Getting reverse swing is one thing, but executing it is very important. It was reversing, but at that time, under pressure, he (Starc) was executing it,” Patel said.
“I was just reminding him to be clear about the plans we made in the bowlers meeting. I was getting the same response: ‘Don’t worry, skip. I’ll do it',” he added.
rhaps, it’s time for Bhuvneshwar to do it as well.
