Some tree leaves will fall 3-6 days in advance by end of century due to climate change: Study
Berlin: A large-scale study of European trees suggests that the leaves of trees between the tropics and the polar regions of the Earth will start to fall in advance by three to six days by the end of the 21st century rather than lengthening by one to three weeks as current models have predicted.
The scientists, including those from the University of Munich (LMU) in Germany, said earlier studies had predicted that the shedding of leaves from these temperate trees will get later under the ongoing climate crisis.
They said early observations also supported this idea since warming caused leaves to stay on the trees later over recent decades, driving increased growing season length that could help to slow the rate of climate change.
However, the current study, published in the journal Science, showed that this trend might be reversed as increasing photosynthetic productivity begins to drive earlier autumn leaf fall or senescence.
According to the researchers, the results build on growing evidence that plant growth is limited by the ability of tree tissues to use and store carbon.
While changes in the growing-season lengths of temperate trees greatly affect global carbon balance, they said future growing-season trajectories remain highly uncertain since the environmental drivers of autumn leaf senescence are poorly understood.
Autumn leaf-shedding at the end of the growing season in temperate regions is an adaptation to stressors, such as freezing temperatures, the scientists explained.
While a common assumption is that alleviating a warmer climate could allow leaves to persist longer and consume more atmospheric carbon, the researchers said the role of photosynthesis in governing the timing of leaf senescence has not been widely tested in trees.
In the current study, the scientists used long-term observations from dominant Central European tree species from 1948 to 2015, and experiments designed to modify carbon uptake by trees, to evaluate related impacts on senescence.
"Accounting for this effect improved the accuracy of senescence predictions by 27 to 42 percent and reversed future predictions from a previously expected 2- to 3-week delay over the rest of the century to an advance of three to six days," the scientists wrote in the study.
The data revealed that increased growing-season productivity in spring and summer due to elevated carbon dioxide, temperature, or light levels can lead to earlier -- not later -- leaf senescence.
This is likely because roots and wood cease to use or store leaf-captured carbon at a point, making leaves costly to keep, the study noted.
The model built by the researchers forecasted the possibility of slight advances, no delays, in autumn leaf-dropping dates over the rest of the century.
According to the scientists, the results "substantially lower our expectations of the extent to which longer growing seasons will increase seasonal carbon uptake in forests".
However, they said the universality of this pattern in other forest types remains unknown.
The researchers believe it is important to implement such growing-season length constraints in other models that do not consider these dynamics.
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3 Indians arrested in Canada for shooting outside home
Ottawa (PTI): Three Indian nationals have been arrested by Canadian police on an anti-extortion patrol and charged after bullets were fired at a home.
Harjot Singh (21), Taranveer Singh (19) and Dayajeet Singh Billing (21) face one count each of discharging a firearm, and all have been remanded in custody until Thursday, the Surrey Police Service (SPS) said in a statement on Monday.
The suspects were arrested by patrol officers after an early morning report of shots fired and a small fire outside a home in Surrey's Crescent Beach neighbourhood, the LakelandToday reported.
On February 1, 2026, the SPS members were patrolling in Surrey’s Crescent Beach neighbourhood when reports came in of shots being fired and a small fire outside a residence near Crescent Road and 132 Street.
The three accused were arrested by SPS officers a short time later, the statement said.
SPS’s Major Crime Section took over the investigation, and the three men have now been charged with Criminal Code offences, it said.
All three have been charged with one count each of discharging a firearm into a place contrary to section 244.2(1)(a) of the Criminal Code.
The investigation is ongoing, and additional charges may be forthcoming. All three have been remanded in custody until February 5, 2026.
The SPS has confirmed they are all foreign nationals and has engaged the Canada Border Services Agency, it said.
One of the suspects suffered injuries, including two black eyes, the media report said.
Surrey police Staff Sgt. Lindsey Houghton said on Monday that the suspect had refused to comply with instructions to get out of the ride-share vehicle and started to "actively resist."
"As we were trained, he was taken to the ground and safely handcuffed," said Houghton.
A second suspect with a black eye was also injured in the arrest after refusing to comply, Houghton said.
The arresting officers were part of Project Assurance, an initiative that patrols neighbourhoods that have been targeted by extortion violence.
Houghton said the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) is also involved because the men are foreign nationals, and the trio may face additional charges.
It's not clear if the men are in the country on tourist visas, a study permit, or a work permit, but Houghton said CBSA has started its own investigation into the men's status.
Surrey has seen a number of shootings at homes and businesses over the last several months, but there's been an escalation since the new year.
