Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
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Screenwriter Salim Khan on ventilator support and stable, say doctors
Mumbai (PTI): Veteran screenwriter Salim Khan suffered a brain haemorrhage which has been tackled, is on ventilator support as a safeguard and stable, doctors treating him said on Wednesday, a day after he was admitted to the Lilavati Hospital here.
The 90-year-old, one half of the celebrated Salim-Javed duo which scripted films such as "Sholay", "Deewar" and "Don" with Javed Akhtar, is in the ICU and recovery might take some time given his age.
"His blood pressure was high for which we treated him and we had to put him on a ventilator because we wanted to do certain investigations. Now the ventilator was put as a safeguard so that his situation doesn't get worse. So it is not that he is critical," Dr Jalil Parkar told reporters.
"We did the investigations that were required and today we have done a small procedure on him, I will not go into the details. The procedure done is called DSA (digital subtraction angiography). The procedure has been accomplished, he is fine and stable and shifted back to ICU. By tomorrow, we hope to get him off the ventilator. All in all, he is doing quite well," he added.
Asked whether he suffered a brain haemorrhage, the doctor said, "Unko thoda haemorrhage hua tha, which we’ve tackled. No surgery is required.
As concern over Khan's health mounted, his children, including superstar Salman Khan and Arbaaz Khan, daughter Alvira, and sons-in-law Atul Agnihotri and Aayush Sharma, have been seen outside the hospital along with other well-wishers. His long-time partner Akhtar was also seen coming out of the hospital.
Khan, a household name in the 70s and 80s, turned 90 on November 24 last year. It was the day Dharmendra, the star of many of his films, including "Sholay", "Seeta aur Geeta" and "Yaadon Ki Baraat", passed away.
Hailing from an affluent family in Indore, Khan arrived in Mumbai in his 20s with dreams of stardom. He was good looking and confident he would make a mark in the industry as an actor. But that did not happen. And then, after struggling for close to a decade and getting confined to small roles in films, he changed lanes.
He worked as an assistant to Abrar Alvi and soon met Akhtar to form one of Hindi cinema's most formidable writing partnerships. They worked together on two dozen movies with most of them achieving blockbuster status.
Other than "Sholay", "Deewar" and "Don", Khan and Akhtar also penned "Trishul", "Zanjeer", "Seeta Aur Geeta", "Haathi Mere Saathi", "Yaadon Ki Baarat" and "Mr India".
