Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
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Telangana CM urges Amit Shah to increase sanctioned strength of IPS officers in state
Hyderabad (PTI): Telangana Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy met Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi on Wednesday night and urged him to increase the sanctioned strength of IPS officers to the state in view of its growing administrative and security needs.
The two leaders also discussed the recent surrender of several senior Maoist leaders before the Telangana Police and other issues.
"During the meeting, the two leaders discussed the issue of Maoist surrenders and their rehabilitation. The chief minister informed Shah that significant improvements in policing have taken place in Telangana over the past two years," an official release here said.
Highlighting that 591 Maoists have laid down their arms and joined the mainstream of society during this period, the chief minister said the state government was providing them compensation and rehabilitation assistance as per the rules.
He requested the Union home minister to extend financial support from the central government for development works in the backward regions of the state.
Reddy also urged Shah to increase the sanctioned strength of IPS officers to the state from 83 to 105 in line with the state's growing administrative and security needs, the statement said.
The first cadre review after the formation of Telangana was conducted in 2016, while the next review, due in 2021, was delayed and finally carried out in 2025. Even then, only seven additional IPS officers were allocated to the state, the chief minister informed Shah and requested that the third cadre review be conducted in 2026 as per the schedule.
Reddy explained that Telangana, like the rest of the country, is facing several modern challenges, including cybercrime, drug trafficking, white-collar crimes, and other emerging security threats.
He highlighted the reorganisation of the Hyderabad, Cyberabad, and Malkajgiri Police Commissionerates, the proposed formation of the Future City Commissionerate and the rapidly growing population in Hyderabad to underline the increasing administrative requirements of the state.
