Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
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Regulator DGCA eases flight duty norms for pilots amid IndiGo crisis
Mumbai (PTI): Aviation watchdog DGCA on Friday eased the flight duty norms by allowing substitution of leaves with a weekly rest period amid massive operational disruptions at IndiGo, according to sources.
As per the revised Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) norms, "no leave shall be substituted for weekly rest", which means that weekly rest period and leaves are to be treated separately. The clause was part of efforts to address fatigue issues among the pilots.
Citing IndiGo flight disruptions, sources told PTI that the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has decided to withdraw the provision 'no leave shall be substituted for weekly rest' from the FDTL norms.
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"In view of the ongoing operational disruptions and representations received from various airlines regarding the need to ensure continuity and stability of operations, it has been considered necessary to review the said provision," DGCA said in a communication dated December 5.
The gaps in planning ahead of the implementation of the revised FDTL, the second phase of which came into force from November 1, have resulted in crew shortage at IndiGo and is one of the key reasons for the current disruptions.
#BREAKING: #DGCA relaxes a clause which debarred airlines to club leaves with weekly rest to mitigate #IndiGo crisis
— Economic Times (@EconomicTimes) December 5, 2025
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