Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
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Bihar: Man assaults wife, inserts chilli powder in private parts over extramarital affair suspicion
Muzaffarpur (Bihar), Jun 17 (PTI): A man has been arrested in Bihar's Muzaffarpur district on the charge of brutally assaulting his wife, hitting her with a hot iron rod and inserting chilli powder in her private parts over suspicion of her having an extramarital affair.
The victim, a resident of Deoria Kothi locality, in her statement before the police, alleged that her husband locked her in a room without food and water for two days and physically assaulted her and tried to electrocute her as well.
Police arrested her husband, Shatrughan Rai, and launched a manhunt to nab her in-laws, who are absconding.
Speaking to reporters, Deoria police station SHO Ram Vinay Kumar said, "Based on the statement given by the victim, a case has been registered against her husband and in-laws. While her husband Shatrughan Rai has been arrested, her in-laws are absconding. The victim is also undergoing treatment at a nearby government hospital."
"According to the statement given by the victim, the incident took place on June 13. Her husband locked her inside a room and kept on physically assaulting her for two days. She was not given food and water for two days.
"She said her legs and hands were tied and she was beaten with a hot iron rod... she alleged that her husband inserted chilli powder in her private parts," the SHO said.
She also informed police that her neighbours did not come to rescue her even when she was screaming, he said.
When her brother visited her house on June 15, she was rescued.
"She informed police that she was brutally assaulted by her husband and in-laws over suspicion of having an extramarital affair. They also attempted to kill her by strangling her with the wire of the mobile phone charger," the SHO said.
She was immediately taken to a local primary health centre by her brother and from there, she was referred to Shree Krishna Medical College and Hospital (SKMCH).
The victim lodged a formal complaint with Deoria police station on June 16 and her husband was arrested the same day.
Police registered a case against her husband, mother-in-law, brother-in-law and sister-in-law. Further investigation is underway, the SHO added.
