Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
Let the Truth be known. If you read VB and like VB, please be a VB Supporter and Help us deliver the Truth to one and all.
3 Indians arrested in Canada for shooting outside home
Ottawa (PTI): Three Indian nationals have been arrested by Canadian police on an anti-extortion patrol and charged after bullets were fired at a home.
Harjot Singh (21), Taranveer Singh (19) and Dayajeet Singh Billing (21) face one count each of discharging a firearm, and all have been remanded in custody until Thursday, the Surrey Police Service (SPS) said in a statement on Monday.
The suspects were arrested by patrol officers after an early morning report of shots fired and a small fire outside a home in Surrey's Crescent Beach neighbourhood, the LakelandToday reported.
On February 1, 2026, the SPS members were patrolling in Surrey’s Crescent Beach neighbourhood when reports came in of shots being fired and a small fire outside a residence near Crescent Road and 132 Street.
The three accused were arrested by SPS officers a short time later, the statement said.
SPS’s Major Crime Section took over the investigation, and the three men have now been charged with Criminal Code offences, it said.
All three have been charged with one count each of discharging a firearm into a place contrary to section 244.2(1)(a) of the Criminal Code.
The investigation is ongoing, and additional charges may be forthcoming. All three have been remanded in custody until February 5, 2026.
The SPS has confirmed they are all foreign nationals and has engaged the Canada Border Services Agency, it said.
One of the suspects suffered injuries, including two black eyes, the media report said.
Surrey police Staff Sgt. Lindsey Houghton said on Monday that the suspect had refused to comply with instructions to get out of the ride-share vehicle and started to "actively resist."
"As we were trained, he was taken to the ground and safely handcuffed," said Houghton.
A second suspect with a black eye was also injured in the arrest after refusing to comply, Houghton said.
The arresting officers were part of Project Assurance, an initiative that patrols neighbourhoods that have been targeted by extortion violence.
Houghton said the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) is also involved because the men are foreign nationals, and the trio may face additional charges.
It's not clear if the men are in the country on tourist visas, a study permit, or a work permit, but Houghton said CBSA has started its own investigation into the men's status.
Surrey has seen a number of shootings at homes and businesses over the last several months, but there's been an escalation since the new year.
