Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
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Woman, 2 sons found dead in Delhi home; suicide suspected
New Delhi (PTI): Three members of a family were found dead inside their home in southeast Delhi's Kalkaji on Friday, with police suspecting it to be a case of suicide, officials said.
Police said the incident came to light around 2.47 pm when a police team reached the premises to execute a court order related to possession of the property. When repeated knocks went unanswered, the staff used a duplicate key to open the door.
Inside, officers found Anuradha Kapoor (52) and her sons, Ashish Kapoor (32) and Chaitanya Kapoor (27), hanging from the ceiling, Deputy Commissioner of Police (Southeast) Hemant Tiwari said in a statement. All three were declared dead.
A handwritten note was recovered from the room, suggesting the family had been struggling with depression.
"The handwritten note indicates emotional distress faced by the family due to which the family may have taken the extreme step," the officer said.
The bodies have been shifted to the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) mortuary for post-mortem and other legal formalities under Section 194 of the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS), police said.
Residents of the neighbourhood said they were shocked to learn about the deaths, adding that the family kept largely to themselves.
Pankaj Kashyap, a resident of Girinagar, said he learnt about the deaths while leaving for work. "I live and work here and was leaving for work when I saw many people standing outside and talking. That is how I got to know that three people had committed suicide. I also saw several police vehicles outside, but I do not know much beyond that," he said.
Baldev, another neighbour, said the family had been living in the newly constructed house for around two years. "We only knew that a mother and her two children lived there. They had moved into the newly built house around two years ago. We did not interact much with them. Today we heard that all three have committed suicide, and whatever we know is based on what people here are saying," he said.
Another neighbour, Ramesh Kumar, claimed the family had earlier attempted suicide.
"About fifteen to twenty days ago, the two sons in the family had attempted suicide and police and ambulances had come. That was when I first got to know who they were. I do not recognise them by face, but we saw the ambulances and police take the two sons that day. Today again we saw ambulances and police arriving, so everyone came out to see what had happened. I do not know how long they had been living here, but this is all we know," he said.
Police said they are examining the family's financial condition, social circumstances, and other factors that may have contributed to the incident. Further investigation is underway.
