Why and How Congress would get 110+ Seats
- Among the pre poll surveys two surveys looked most trust worthy- CSDS – Loknithi and Rajdeep Sardesai’s channel. According to CSDS the likely seat Congress would get jumped from 90 in April to 100+ in May. This increase was predicted while Modi was busy with his rallies. (Those who are in the know, know why CSDS is credible).
- Though Rajdeep Sardesai is not pro BJP he had predicted that BJP would win in both 2014 LS elections and UP assembly elections in 2017. Presently he predicts that Congress would get 106-118 seats in Karnataka. Moreover his exit poll base is much bigger (around 70000)
- Though C-Four seems pro Congress, its exit poll base too is significantly large (27000). Even if we deduct around 5% vote share it predicts, even then the outcome seem to favour Congress.
- The polling percentage is highest in 2018 in the post independent era. For this kind of record voting either there should be a visible wave or women must have voted in large numbers as they did in 2013.
- If Modi wave were to be factor, then the voting in cities should have been significantly higher. As the data in other districts do not provide city based voting percentage, let us take Bangalore as an indicator. The polling in Bangalore is 10% less than what it was in 2013. It suggests that those who were influenced by Modi did not feel like voting!!
- If that is true then, higher polling must be due to the voting by women, backward communities and minorities. In 1978 when similar polling occurred (71.8 ) Congress led by Devaraj Urs had registered a massive victory.
The present scenario is akin to that. According to India today, over 48% Dalits and 80% Muslims have supported Congress. In 2013, where Muslim voters were over 40% BJP had won 6 out of 15. This time Modi & co must have contributed for a greater polarization of Muslim votes.
Generally 70% of the voters vote for their traditional favourite party. Hence we should look for the trends in voting pattern. We have only CSDS data regarding this (of April-May) that trend seems to favour Congress.
If someone wants to debate this logically, a discussion is worth it! I am subject to correction. But merely stating that Today’s Chanakya or C-Four predicts so does not prove anything.
If results prove this wrong, then
- The polling did not happen according to this logic
- EVMS should be doubted.
- The methodology and inference of the surveys must be faulty.
My analysis does not mean that I am pro Congress. This is an attempt to understand an electoral exit poll survey scientifically. Anyway, we have our role cut out.. Whoever wins, we may have to function as a vigilant opposition!
DR. H.V. VASU
SHIVASUNDAR
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Sand sculpture urging people to vote attracts visitors to Ullal beach
Ullal: A sand sculpture illustrating the significance of elections and the importance of voters exercising their right to franchise was created on Ullal beach recently, during an event jointly organized by the Ullal Taluk Panchayat, Ullal City Municipality, Kotekar Town Panchayat, and Someshwara Town Municipality.
The art event, themed on elections and carrying the slogan 'Election: The Pride of the Nation', was inaugurated by Dakshina Kannada District SVEEP Committee President and Zilla Panchayat CEO, Dr. Anand K. He commenced the event by releasing a balloon into the air.
Addressing the gathering, the SVEEP officer reminded all voters present on Ullal beach to cast their votes without fail on April 26. He added that the committee had organized a variety of programs to encourage voters to exercise their right to franchise during the ongoing general elections, with the sand art event being an innovative way to spread the message.
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Attendees of the event enthusiastically chanted the election slogan of the SVEEP Committee, which was announced by the Director of the Janashikshana Trust, Sheena Shetty, and Krishnappa Moolya. A display of the folk art, Dudi, was also organized on the occasion. The sand sculpture on the election attracted the attention of other visitors to Ullal beach.
SVEEP Master Trainer Sacheth Kumar Suvarna served as the Master of Ceremony, and Assistant Director Ramesh Nayak proposed the Vote of Thanks.
Among the dignitaries present during the event were Ullal Taluk Panchayat Executive Officer Shaila K Karigi, Municipal Councillor of Ullal City Municipality Raghavendra, Kotekar Town Panchayat Chief Officer Anand Seregoppa, Someshwara Town Municipality Chief Officer Raju, SVEEP Master Trainer Sharanya Shetty, and other officials.
