Mumbai, Apr 10: Suresh Raina announced his IPL comeback with a blazing 36-ball 54 and powered Chennai Super Kings to a solid 188 for seven against Delhi Capitals here on Saturday.

Sam Curran smashed away to 34 off only 15 balls to prop up the CSK innings towards the end. Curran hit four fours and two sixes.

The last five overs yielded 52 runs for CSK, thanks to Curran's power-packed innings.

Asked to bat first by Rishabh Pant, Ruturaj Gaikwad got CSK off the mark with a pleasing drive through the off side between point and cover, two deliveries after being beaten all ends up by a Chris Woakes outswinger.

Last season's runners-up DC didn't have to wait long for their first breakthrough as Avesh Khan (2/23 in 4 overs) had Faf du PLessis trapped in front of the wicket in the second over.

In the first ball of the third over, Woakes had Gaikwad caught in the slip cordon as CSK slipped to seven for two.

The English pacer drew Gaikwad into a push with a ball that moved a slightly on pitching.

In came Raina -- he had missed the last IPL owing to personal reasons -- and in the company of Moeen Ali, the seasoned campaigner revived CSK's innings and looked to put up a challenging total against a strong DC batting line-up at the Wankhede Stadium.

During his 24-ball 36, Moeen struck four boundaries and two sixes, playing a fine helping hand to Raina.

Experienced off-spinner Ravichandran Ashwin cut short Moeen's innings when the all-rounder got himself into an uncomfortable position while going for a reverse sweep, the ensuing top-edge ending in a good catch by Shikhar Dhawan, who ran backwards from short third man to hold on to the ball.

Ambati Rayudu came in and straightaway got into the act, hitting a couple of sixes and a four to race away to 23 off 16 balls before Tom Curran ended his stay in the middle.

Meanwhile Raina went about his task in a manner that did not give the impression that he was coming back to top-flight after a long hiatus.

Raina got himself going with a four off Woakes and then worked Ashwin for two successive boundaries, not afraid to dance down the wicket against the wily spinner's flight.

Using his feet well, the veteran southpaw hoicked leg-spinner Amit Mishra for two and also got a maximum against Ashwin.

It was no different with Marcus Stoinis as Raina pulled the Australian medium pacer for another six before being run-out following a mix-up with Ravindra Jadeja (26).

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Bengaluru: A post-poll survey conducted by Vartha Bharati and Bengaluru-based political research organisation Sankalp has projected a tight contest in the Davanagere South Assembly by-election, with Congress still ahead of BJP but with a sharply reduced margin compared to the 2023 Assembly election.

According to the survey, Congress may retain the seat, but it is likely to lose around 25 per cent of the votes it had secured in the 2023 election. As a result, its lead is expected to shrink considerably. In contrast, BJP is projected to have retained 95 per cent of the votes it secured in 2023.

The survey also noted widespread anger among Muslim voters against Congress, making the by-election far from easy for the ruling party.

Vote share projection

The survey estimates that of the total votes polled in 2023, Congress had secured 58 per cent. In the present by-election, its vote share may decline to 48.7 per cent.

BJP, which had received 39 per cent votes in 2023, may rise to 43.5 per cent this time.

SDPI, which had polled only 0.9 per cent in 2023, is projected to rise sharply to 5.7 per cent.

Independents and NOTA together may account for 2.1 per cent votes.

The survey stated that dissatisfaction among Muslims over ticket distribution and the manner in which Congress handled the community may hurt Congress and benefit SDPI.

Where Congress votes are shifting

Of the votes Congress may lose, a major share is projected to move to BJP.

The survey says:

  • 17 per cent of Congress’s lost votes may shift to BJP
  • 7 per cent may move to SDPI
  • Around 1 per cent may go to others

This means that out of every 100 voters who supported Congress in 2023, nearly 25 may have shifted elsewhere in the by-election.

BJP vote retention strong

The survey estimates BJP has retained 95 per cent of its 2023 voters.

Only 5 per cent of BJP’s earlier votes may have moved to Congress.

Of that 5 per cent shift:

  • 25 per cent are Dalits
  • 33 per cent Lingayats
  • 25 per cent Kurubas
  • 17 per cent others

The survey says no BJP votes appear to have shifted to SDPI.

Social group movement from Congress to BJP

Among the 17 per cent votes shifting from Congress to BJP:

  • 50 per cent Dalits
  • 27 per cent others
  • 11 per cent Lingayats
  • 12 per cent Kurubas

The 7 per cent shift from Congress to SDPI is attributed clearly to Muslim voter dissatisfaction.

Gender-wise voting pattern

Among male voters:

  • Congress: 47.0 per cent
  • BJP: 44.2 per cent
  • SDPI: 6.4 per cent
  • Others: 2.4 per cent

Among female voters:

  • Congress: 53.0 per cent
  • BJP: 41.6 per cent
  • SDPI: 3.9 per cent

Age-wise voting trend

18 to 25 years

A close fight is seen among younger voters.

  • Congress: 45.9 per cent
  • BJP: 45.5 per cent
  • SDPI: 6.6 per cent

The survey says this suggests young Muslim voters may have moved from Congress to SDPI.

26 to 40 years

This is the largest voter group.

  • Congress: 47.4 per cent
  • BJP: 43.5 per cent
  • SDPI: 6.4 per cent

41 to 60 years

Congress is believed to have benefited from sympathy votes linked to Shamanur.

  • Congress: 52.1 per cent
  • BJP: 41.7 per cent
  • SDPI: 4.7 per cent

Above 60 years

BJP appears stronger among senior voters.

  • BJP: 51.0 per cent
  • Congress: 44.4 per cent
  • SDPI: 3.7 per cent

Factors helping Congress

The survey listed the following advantages for Congress:

  • Sympathy factor after Shamanur’s death
  • Voter preference towards ruling party
  • Influence of Mallikarjun-Prabha couple
  • Congress victory in Lok Sabha election

Factors helping BJP

The survey listed the following advantages for BJP:

  • Anti-incumbency against Congress government
  • Anger among Muslims hurting Congress
  • BJP fielding a Dalit candidate

The survey observed that while SDPI gained directly from Muslim anger, BJP gained indirectly because Congress lost votes.

Candidate-wise estimate

The survey projects:

  • Congress candidate Samarth Mallikarjun: 43% to 51%
  • BJP candidate Srinivas T. Dasakariyappa: 42% to 50%
  • SDPI candidate Afsar Kodlipete: around 6%
  • Others: around 1%

Margin expected to shrink sharply

Congress had won the 2023 election by a huge margin of 27,888 votes.

This time, the survey projects Congress may be ahead by only 1,500 to 2600 votes.

It added that since the margin appears extremely narrow, the possibility of a surprise result cannot be ruled out.