Mumbai: Putting up an all-round show, Karnataka defeated Mumbai by 5 wickets in their Elite Group B Ranji Trophy game here on Sunday, inside two-and-half days. This was Mumbai's second consecutive loss at home, following their defeat against Railways. It is also Karnataka's fourth outright win against Mumbai since the 2013-14 season.

Chasing 126 for an outright win, Karnataka openers R Samarth (34; 2x4) and Devdutt Padikkal (50; 5x4, 2x6) gave the team a solid start and the visitors were racing towards the target as they were 77/0 at lunch. Samarth was batting on 27, while Paddikal was the more aggressive one, being unbeaten on 50. However, post lunch offie Shashank Attarde (4-52) pegged back the visitors by taking two wickets.

He trapped Padikkal in front of the wicket and then dismissed Abhishek Reddy (4) as Karnataka were 84-2. It became 91/3 as Shams Mulani cleaned up Samarth. Debutant Rohan Kadam (21) and skipper Karun Nair (10) brought the side on the cusp of a win when Attarde removed Kadam. Karnataka needed eight more runs.

In the same over, Attarde sent back Nair. Shreyas Gopal (5 not out) and B R Sharath (4 not out) took the side home without any further damage. Earlier, resuming the day on 109/5, Attarde (10) joined overnight batsman Sarfaraz Khan (71 not out). The two added 25-runs for the sixth wicket.

Sarfaraz was playing a responsible knock as he kept on increasing Mumbai's lead, but was falling short of partners. Left-arm pacer Prateek Jain (4-11) grabbed all the wickets in the morning session as he ran through the Mumbai's lower order.

Attarde's resistance came to an end, after he edged a short-pitched ball in the slip cordon with Mumbai at 134/6. From 134/6, Mumbai's innings ended at 149/9.

It was already announced that Prithvi Shaw, who sustained a shoulder injury and was rushed to the National Cricket Academy on Saturday, would not bat in the second essay.

Jain gave a double blow to Mumbai in the 48th over, when he dismissed Tushar Deshpande (6) and Deepak Shetty (0). While Jain cleaned up Deshpande, he forced Shetty to nick.

Last man Royston Dias (0) lasted just six balls as he too was cleaned up by Jain. For Mumbai, apart from Sarfaraz, no other batsman stood tall.

Karnataka had bundled out Mumbai for 194 in the first essay and then taken a slender 24-run lead. The 41-time domestic champions next play Tamil Nadu in Chennai from January 11.

Nair praised his bowlers for restricting Mumbai in the second innings and also said the target was "gettable". He also said in low-scoring game, any lead is important.

He also praised Padikkal and Sharath for their knocks. Mumbai captain Suryakumar Yadav said they failed as a unit. He also said that when he got out Shaw approached him to bat, but they did not take the risk, as he even could not lift his plate.

"When I saw him (Shaw) it was not that good. Even after me getting out, he came upto me and the manager, (saying) that I would love to bat. But we had a word with physio and the coach and it was not looking that good. We did not want to get it more severe. The physio had to take that call... when we he was having his lunch, he was not able to lift his plate," said Surya.

Surya also praised Rahane for taking responsibility and opening the batting in the second innings.

Meanwhile in Vadodara, Baroda thrashed Railways by 99 runs.

Brief Scores: Mumbai 194 and 149/9 (Sarfaraz Khan 71 not out, Shams Mulani 31; Prateek Jain 4-11) vs Karnataka 218 and 129/5 (Devdutt Padikkal 50, R Samarth 34; Shashank Attarde 4-52).

Karnataka 6 points, Mumbai 0 points.

At Vadodara: Baroda 201 and 98 vs Railways 99 and101 (Karn Sharma 38; L Meriwala 6-25, A Sheth 3-43).

Baroda won by 99 runs.

Baroda 6 points, Railways 0 points.

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Bengaluru: A post-poll survey conducted by Vartha Bharati and Bengaluru-based political research organisation Sankalp has projected a tight contest in the Davanagere South Assembly by-election, with Congress still ahead of BJP but with a sharply reduced margin compared to the 2023 Assembly election.

According to the survey, Congress may retain the seat, but it is likely to lose around 25 per cent of the votes it had secured in the 2023 election. As a result, its lead is expected to shrink considerably. In contrast, BJP is projected to have retained 95 per cent of the votes it secured in 2023.

The survey also noted widespread anger among Muslim voters against Congress, making the by-election far from easy for the ruling party.

Vote share projection

The survey estimates that of the total votes polled in 2023, Congress had secured 58 per cent. In the present by-election, its vote share may decline to 48.7 per cent.

BJP, which had received 39 per cent votes in 2023, may rise to 43.5 per cent this time.

SDPI, which had polled only 0.9 per cent in 2023, is projected to rise sharply to 5.7 per cent.

Independents and NOTA together may account for 2.1 per cent votes.

The survey stated that dissatisfaction among Muslims over ticket distribution and the manner in which Congress handled the community may hurt Congress and benefit SDPI.

Where Congress votes are shifting

Of the votes Congress may lose, a major share is projected to move to BJP.

The survey says:

  • 17 per cent of Congress’s lost votes may shift to BJP
  • 7 per cent may move to SDPI
  • Around 1 per cent may go to others

This means that out of every 100 voters who supported Congress in 2023, nearly 25 may have shifted elsewhere in the by-election.

BJP vote retention strong

The survey estimates BJP has retained 95 per cent of its 2023 voters.

Only 5 per cent of BJP’s earlier votes may have moved to Congress.

Of that 5 per cent shift:

  • 25 per cent are Dalits
  • 33 per cent Lingayats
  • 25 per cent Kurubas
  • 17 per cent others

The survey says no BJP votes appear to have shifted to SDPI.

Social group movement from Congress to BJP

Among the 17 per cent votes shifting from Congress to BJP:

  • 50 per cent Dalits
  • 27 per cent others
  • 11 per cent Lingayats
  • 12 per cent Kurubas

The 7 per cent shift from Congress to SDPI is attributed clearly to Muslim voter dissatisfaction.

Gender-wise voting pattern

Among male voters:

  • Congress: 47.0 per cent
  • BJP: 44.2 per cent
  • SDPI: 6.4 per cent
  • Others: 2.4 per cent

Among female voters:

  • Congress: 53.0 per cent
  • BJP: 41.6 per cent
  • SDPI: 3.9 per cent

Age-wise voting trend

18 to 25 years

A close fight is seen among younger voters.

  • Congress: 45.9 per cent
  • BJP: 45.5 per cent
  • SDPI: 6.6 per cent

The survey says this suggests young Muslim voters may have moved from Congress to SDPI.

26 to 40 years

This is the largest voter group.

  • Congress: 47.4 per cent
  • BJP: 43.5 per cent
  • SDPI: 6.4 per cent

41 to 60 years

Congress is believed to have benefited from sympathy votes linked to Shamanur.

  • Congress: 52.1 per cent
  • BJP: 41.7 per cent
  • SDPI: 4.7 per cent

Above 60 years

BJP appears stronger among senior voters.

  • BJP: 51.0 per cent
  • Congress: 44.4 per cent
  • SDPI: 3.7 per cent

Factors helping Congress

The survey listed the following advantages for Congress:

  • Sympathy factor after Shamanur’s death
  • Voter preference towards ruling party
  • Influence of Mallikarjun-Prabha couple
  • Congress victory in Lok Sabha election

Factors helping BJP

The survey listed the following advantages for BJP:

  • Anti-incumbency against Congress government
  • Anger among Muslims hurting Congress
  • BJP fielding a Dalit candidate

The survey observed that while SDPI gained directly from Muslim anger, BJP gained indirectly because Congress lost votes.

Candidate-wise estimate

The survey projects:

  • Congress candidate Samarth Mallikarjun: 43% to 51%
  • BJP candidate Srinivas T. Dasakariyappa: 42% to 50%
  • SDPI candidate Afsar Kodlipete: around 6%
  • Others: around 1%

Margin expected to shrink sharply

Congress had won the 2023 election by a huge margin of 27,888 votes.

This time, the survey projects Congress may be ahead by only 1,500 to 2600 votes.

It added that since the margin appears extremely narrow, the possibility of a surprise result cannot be ruled out.